Martingale... How to make it WORK for YOU!

[Uris1975]

I am going to keep it simple and to the stage.


Trading is SIMPLE....OVER THINKING is HARD!



To use martingale and make it work for you. . .there is just 3 factors you want to consider....


1.) Account Funds!

2.) Maximum Draw Down you are willing to let your account visit.

3.) Possible entries into a transaction that your will system give in a specific period.


Utilizing martingale is not mad nor can it be impossible to produce a profit. You don't need billions and millions of dollars to make it function.

When utilizing martingale using a system. . .you MUST understand how many possible positions you might have in that time frame.

Once you know that the rest is straightforward MATH! (ADD,SUBTRACT, MULTIPLY,DIVIDE)


1.) Account Funds = 10,000

2.) Max Draw Down = 16 percent

3.) Possible Entries = 12 trades over the H1


When finding your Trading Capital you need to take your whole account balance and divide it from your Max RISK...

$10,000 / .16 = 1,600

So our Trading Capital daily will be $1,600.

Now that we understand our max RISK for its martingale setup we understand that we will make at least a Xpercent profit on the Trading Capital for the day.

1, 2, 4, 8, 16....You double up your risk percentage every transaction until that one trade strikes your TP (1:1 )....Which makes your cash (or even more) and provides the percent daily you desired!

The point of this thread is to understand how to use martingale SMARTLY! And also to use Money Management while doing so....

As long as you understand how many changes you could have from the trading platform you are using. . .which is SUPER SIMPLE TO KNOW. . .and if you do not yet understand. . .Your need to keep that day job and not serious about trading!

For one that cannot think about the BIG PICTURE....there are 5 trading days in 1 week. . .and roughly 20 per month....So thats 20 percent per month or 240% per YEAR....ROI! . . .Of course if you compound Daily,Weekly or Monthy instead of Yearly. . .you can make more.... K.I.S.S.....Keep It Simple Stupid!

[Uris1975]

as I was saying, when the word is said you will get hords of people denouncing it so that they should.Straight away they place Currency Market in precisely the same basket as flipping a coin. Flipping a coin is random, Currency Market isn't random. In case you have a good strike rate then it should be possible to double up on a loser hence M, banks and institutes do it but the key is for the small guys not to know about it. Or just keep it in precisely the same league as coin flipping.
Which is why I pointed out the APY on the savings/checking account....etc...

I included the Money Management and the part about calculating your potential setups for this day to ascertain your starting ....etc....

Oh btw....Did anybody take notice to the title of this thread....

Martingale....HOW TO MAKE IT WORK FOR YOU! lol

[dokoxke]

96353
I don't have any personal problems with him ....

1.) This is not a debate....

2.) He keeps trying to throw that I am trying to buy/sell with no SL....and simply keep adding rankings....that is not the situation...I KNOW FOR A truth! I'll just have 1-5 entries inside that pair for this afternoon...A stop loss IS USED....so SIMPLE MATH! Can be implemented!

Ever since he keeps throwing gaming stats.... Flipping a coin bull shit...I don't find the demand for his comments....And for a 10 vouched member to not be able to earn at least 1 profitable... In my experience so far, vouchers mean nothing to me personally. The majority of them are making #8211; zero profits and then some. It is more of a who believes a like strategy. What means something is how a person can hold his own. I admit Jack has to be put in his place and has opinions. However, I like this, and he does bring up some points. He mentioned gaming...

Why have a thread if it is not debatable?

[Uris1975]

90824
[QUOTE=;]Why is Jack larkin denied by posting here?

Hi marijuana, I think he is barred for being overly negative. M is in its self a way that is ridiculous to bet or trade, but like Dredding says he is showing you the way it's possible to exchange M, and agree. Perhaps if JL posted feedback and listened first everything wouold differ, they likely still burn witches at which he is. Take care I'm Utilized to the hate when I try and tell people things...I think I said that from the 2nd post lol

[selusapistan]

90824you are insane

[dokoxke]

90824
you're insane lol

[Uris1975]

90824
From my experience so far vouchers mean nothing to me. The majority of them are making #8211; zero profits and then some. It's more of a who thinks a system. What means something is how a person can hold his own about what he's affirming. I acknowledge Jack has opinions and has to be put occasionally in his position. However he does bring up some good points.
Wisdom Vouching System
Overview
The Wisdom Vouching System (WVS) is used to estimate the trading experience of person FF members. Members vouch for are traders, and the number of coupons a penis has can be determined by an icon on their articles and profile. For example, a member with a single voucher will display, a member using two coupons will display, and so on up to eleven.

The ethics of the WVS is preserved by only letting members with four or more coupons to vouch...
So in other words. . .they SHOULD mean something....

And his points are like I am not having a stop loss and that I am putting trades after another hoping I'll make a profit....so his points are nothing more bull shit he's read FF, another forum or a book...

[Uris1975]

90824
you're insane Damn skippy! Gotta be to exchange for a living! lmao

[dokoxke]

90824
[QUOTE=;]
I'm utilized to the hate when I attempt to tell people things...I believe I explained that in the 2nd post lol Hey, I am all for believing otherwise. That#8217;s my approach to trading. And is the reason.

So, let#8217;s attempt to keep this open. In the end we will believe what we believe is ideal. Perhaps not who's wrong or right.

Anyhow#8230; Following #8230;

[ttzombie]

90824
Damn skippy! Gotta be to trade for a living! lmao you beat me to it...

[Uris1975]

90824
[QUOTE=;]Hey, I am all for believing differently. That is my way to trading. And is the reason why I am looking into your own theory. Its not a theory. . .its a FACT. . .you have to begin believing FACTS...

[dokoxke]

90824
[QUOTE=;]
Its not a concept. . .its a Actuality. . .you need to start thinking FACTS.... It is not a Truth nothing in gambling is a Actuality. We would be billionairs. Please...

[Uris1975]

90824
[QUOTE=;]That's why I pointed out the APY about the savings/checking account....etc...

Bud, I am on your side lol. But its the use of the M word. Each time M word is utilized that french dude that couldnt bet correctly is referred back to by individuals. Without understanding that somebody is credited every body who have ever encountered who bet on horses/dogs, roullette etc come up. Just like you say and hear everybody, in case you have a good strike rate it will do the job. And I aint heading into... But you just made my point....you do NOT need a good strike rate....you do not need 90%,80% 70 percent....etc...a 20% (1 out of 5) will operate....

You just have to do the math...

[Uris1975]

90824
[QUOTE=;]It is not a Factnothing in trading is a Fact. We would all be billionairs. Please...
Therefore that the the 4 facts...I recorded aren't a fact...? hmmmmm

[dokoxke]

90824
[QUOTE=;]

So the the 4 facts...I listed aren't true...? hmmmmm Nope. Everything changes daily. Events, news, banks, systems, mathematics, whatever...

[Uris1975]

90824
[QUOTE=;]It's not a simple fact nothing in trading is a Fact. We would be billionairs. Please...
Now lets make the following point...I need you to define 3 things for me personally....

1.) Uptrend

2.) Downtrend

3.) Range

...

[Uris1975]

90824
[QUOTE= ;]
Nope. Everything affects daily. Events, news, banks, whatever... Please proceed 1 page back and see the FACTS! I recorded. . .because it HAS TO HAPPEN!

[selusapistan]

90824[quote;6118600] you beat me to it...[/

skippy?

Were did you find that conclusion,

a smart man,

dont confuse people with this bullshit

[Uris1975]

90824
[QUOTE=;]That's why I pointed out the APY on the savings/checking account....etc...

Bud, I am on your side lol. But its the usage of the M term. Every time M term is utilized people refer back to that dude who couldnt bet properly at the match. Just about any body who I have ever encountered who wager on horses/dogs, etc that are roullette come up with all the M system without knowing that someone is imputed for it which is tosh. Just like you listen and say everyone, in case you have a fantastic strike rate it will do the job. And I aint going into...
Yes I know. . .but I have to KEEP let people to see. . .since they have no idea and everyone likes to jump at a thread at the middle or at the end what the fuck they are talking about lol

[dokoxke]

[QUOTE=;]
Please proceed 1 page back and see the FACTS! I listed. . .because It Must HAPPEN! Lol, will do again. Anyhow, your theory/fact is somewhat faulty, but nevertheless worth looking into. I wish you luck on your trading.

[Uris1975]

[QUOTE=;] you beat me to it...[/

skippy?

Were did you realize that decision,

a wise man,

dont confuse folks using this bullshit Oh god now everyone is going to be looking up how Skippy Peanut Butter can help trading! lol

[Uris1975]

[QUOTE=;]lol, will do . Anyhow, your theory/fact is a bit faulty, but still worth looking into. I wish you luck in your trading.
I don't need luck...I have a Method....with money management....lol

[Uris1975]

[quote=;6118605] [QUOTE=;]
But you just made my point....you do NOT need a fantastic strike

1 in 5 could be thought of as a fantastic strike rate. I have a pro trader buddy that has a success rate of approx 1 in 9 I could never trade like that however he makes serious cash when that 1 goes in. You've got your way and I have my way and perhaps we think differently but at the end of the day we both make money, as I was saying I dislike the M word.
Yes I understand you're saying you dislike martingale...

[dokoxke]

[QUOTE=;]

I don't need luck...I have a Method....with cash management....lol lol. Fantastic luck.

[kmikc1]

So you can't take your current indiors you utilize....and find the number of possible setups for entrance within that pair you'd have for the time you're trading....
Please refer to article #1....
Of course I will

I may also say that there is a: a high possibility that 1 in 4-5 trades reaches TP R:R 1:1

However, for me a simple fact is more than a very large possibility:. . .high possibility is good enough to trade and also make some money. . But for me personally a high possibility isn't the same as a FACT. .

For others: a high possibility is good enough to take the risk and use something along your suggested Martingale.


You gave an example of an FACT:


Ok lets record 4 FACTS about the a pair....

1.) It will make a new high
2.) it will make a new low
3.) It won't make a new high or very low
4.) it will make a new high and a new low.... I still want to see a trader who will say with the identical certainty that 1 in 4-5 trades wealth R:R 1:1.

Not on ordinary however as a FACT in Any Way times... really such a trader has it ...

Cheers
Ati

[Uris1975]

of course I can

I can even say that there is a: a high possibility that 1 in 4-5 trades reaches TP R1:1

However, for me personally a FACT is more than a very large possibility:. . .high chance is great enough to exchange and even make some money. . But for me personally a high chance is not the same as a FACT. .

For many others: a high chance is great enough to take the risk and use something together your suggested Martingale.


You gave an example of an FACT:



I still want to see a trader who will say with the Exact Same certainty that 1 in 4-5...
OMG....look at a typical candle chart on EurUsd H1. . .just use the shift....fuck the number of changes(no system)....this is simply to prove a point

Tell me there is not one shift where if you put your SL at the reduced. . .of the last candle....your TP of 1:1 would not have been hit...

[selusapistan]

Ok,ill leave this to its conclusion,

do this with a true account,maybe not dimes,but bucks,realistic to making a living?

Not one man will respond;

illusions are illusions

[Uris1975]

okay,ill leave this to its conclusion,

do this with a true account,maybe not dimes,but dollars,realistic to making a living?

Not one person will react;

illusions are illusions
Pennys, Nickels and Dimes are exactly what make a BUCK....

Now of course you need to get a true account. . .that is REALLY FUNDED. . .to utilize this type of MM....or yes you will be penny, nickel and producing dimes till you get the funds you need.

[Uris1975]

[QUOTE=;] of course I can

I can even say there is a: a top possibility that 1 in 4-5 trades reaches TP R1:1

would you understand about trading spikes, like news releases, and volatile pairs, oil etc. I said news releases but I never trade them but these have a very high strike rate of moving in. I cannot say now how high because of me being in a hotel but its something like 4 or 9 in 10. Infact you dont even have to perform M. and sorry dredding for saying attack rate lol. Anbd with that beautiful wife is beckoning... OMG. . .there are SPIKES from the markets....Say it aint so....say it aint so....no shit....lol

that is where your OWN system comes into play....not trading around reports....only trading a session(London,Jap,US) etc.. . .these are called FILTERS....which I'm certain that you use already....right?

[Uris1975]

I do marijuana big time And he isn't the only one...

[Uris1975]

I figure that the room leader lost all of his cash on martingale consequently no replies, You have to do this right. Deal with
I have been busy....and no I didn't lose all my money...

[Tataylo]

@dredding82:

Just wanted to post this link, which provides at least a dozen reasons why Martingale is mathematical lunacy.

I can not think that anybody who is serious about long-term survival as a trader would entertain employing any kind of martingale. Whatever past testing might have demoned, you can not impose your own forecast on how the market will move in the future. If your calculated ranges are surpassed by just one'black swan' event #8212; martingale leaves you exposed to infinite loss.

As I read in one of the Market Wizard books, the three most important components in trading are risk management, risk management and risk management.

Assuming that the entries/exits in your freebie/BOLOSO system(s) supply a real edge #8212; and I have recommended them to many folk, who have PM-d me asking for a solid, rule-based strategy #8212; then why the necessity to take some completely unnecessary risks?

You can ban me from the thread now.

[tdopami]

,
the initial risk is only 0.16 percent and if you look at any M15 chart with the freebie-template, you won't find one day where you would not have at least 1 profitable trade 1:1 Risk/'Reward.

The progression will be 0.16%, 0.32%, 0.64 percent and at
then TP would be struck.

It simply is not possible to lose with this combo of freebie-system and martingale.

[Tataylo]

,
the initial risk is simply 0.16 percent and if you look at some M15 chart together with all the freebie-template, you will not find a single day at which you would not have at least 1 profitable commerce 1:1 Risk/'Reward.

The development would be 0.16%, 0.32%, 0.64 percent and at least
then TP would be struck. I'm not familiar with the inner workings of the freebie system, so that I can't comment. I've recommended it only on the basis of dredding82's standing, and the exceptionally positive comments throughout the freebie thread.

But at 0.16% initial risk it'd take only 9 successive losses to create irretrievable drawdown. In 1:1 RR, even with a 60% win rate, the probability of encountering 9 successive losses in any 500 trade chain is approximately 12%. At 65% win rate (that is a PF of 1.86) this diminishes to ~4%; that would be far beyond my comfort zone, especially if my hard-earned savings were online. Therefore I repeat my question from the prior post: if the freebie system is profitable without martingale, why take this type of unnecessary risk? Why not simply size consistently with every trade, and let the border deliver the goods over time?


It simply is impossible to lose with this combination of freebie-system and martingale. But just because something has not occurred in the past, can you say with 100% certainty that it will not happen in the future?

I don't believe that any system is infallible. Hence when folks say things like it is impossible to lose I must query their expertise. There's a potential worst case price action pattern which will defeat virtually any system. With martingale, the pattern needs to happen only once; the trader is open to infinite loss.

If a trading method is 100% guaranteed , you have to wonder why everybody isn't using it. If infallible systems are publicly available from the public domain, why is it that the huge majority of traders lose?

[tdopami]

But just because something hasn't happened in the past, can you say with 100% certainty that it won't occur in the long term? Can you say with 100% certainty that no meteorite will fall in your own head?
Or that you will not have any car collision?
Then you shouldn´t use your car .


I don't feel that any system is infallible. Hence when people say things like it is not possible to lose I have to query their experience. There's a possible worst case price action pattern that will defeat any system. With martingale, the pattern should occur only once; the trader is open to unlimited loss. No, not unlimited loss but a calculated reduction of maximum 1.6 % of the account balance in the worst case which probably won't happen another 500 years.


If a trading procedure is 100% guaranteed infallible, you need to wonder why everybody is not using it. If infallible systems are freely available in the public domain, why is it that the great majority of traders lose? 1. Most never discover that the method.
2. Will get the job done.
3. Others who'd be willing to use it, will find other systems which promise more than 3 percent monthly ROI.
So from 100 traders that understand about it, perhaps 1 will use it.
The rest keeps on hunting for greater systems.

[Uris1975]

I'm not knowledgeable about the mechanics of the freebie system, so that I can't comment. I've recommended it only on the grounds of dredding82's reputation, and the highly positive comments through the thread thread.

But at 0.16% initial risk it would take just 9 consecutive losses to create irretrievable drawdown. At 1:1 RR, in spite of a 60% success rate, the likelihood of encountering 9 consecutive losses in almost any 500 commerce sequence is around 12 percent. At 65% gain rate (that's a PF of 1.86) this declines to ~4%; even that would be way beyond my comfort... This really is not all about the systems I have submitted. . .this about the way to use martingale....with Money Management...

[Uris1975]

,
the first risk is simply 0.16 % and if you look at some M15 chart together with all the freebie-template, you won't locate one day at which you wouldn't have 1 profitable trade 1:1 Risk/'Reward.

The progression will be 0.16 %, 0.32 %, 0.64 % and at
then TP would be struck.

It just is impossible to lose with this combo of freebie-system and martingale.
The progression isn't as listed above. The 0.16 is the trading funds of the account you are ready to risk.

Account Balance = $10,000
Max Risk = 16 percent
Trading Capital = Account Balance * Max Risk = $1,600
Profit = Trading Capital * Percent Per Trade to Risk


It would go off your beginning risk. 0.01%-1%....could be greater. . .depends on the trader like ALOT of other things....The greater your risk the greater the hit rate you need.

.1.2.4.8.16 .32 .64 = 7 Twist

.01 .02 .08.16.32.64 1.28 2.56 5.12 10.24 20.48 40.96 81.92 = 13 transactions

So with this little bit we know 1/13 = .07% hit rate....we also know that about the 13th trade we'll be risking 81.92percent ($1,310.72) of this Trading Capital which is 16 percent ($1,600) of this Entire Account Balance($10,000). Which would give a draw down of 13 percent of the Entire Account Balance if you weren't able to create 1 trade out of 13 profitable and reach at a 1:1 Risk to Reward.

Now lets say we just use a H1 chart with just the candle change for entrance....There is 24 possible trades for this interval....Now permits use a time filter....Only trade US London Hours (14) Currently there is just 14 possible trades that could be entered in the a 24 hour period....Lets now define that interval (14) even more by not trading the first and last hour of the hours we want to trade....So 14 - 2 = 12 possible trades in our 24 hour interval. But we only need to make 1 trade out of 13 a winning 1:1 risk to reward....hmmmmmm

[Uris1975]

Oh yes I should state this once again. . .due to how members love to just read the last page rather than the rest....All the amounts really are an EXAMPLE....

Plus I just woke up and am just in my first cup of java...

[Uris1975]

@dredding82:

Just wanted to post this connection, which provides at least a dozen reasons why Martingale is mathematical lunacy.

I can't believe that anybody who's serious about long-term survival as a trader would amuse employing any kind of martingale. Whatever past testing might have demoned, you can't impose your own forecast on the way the market will proceed later on. If your calculated ranges are exceeded by a single'black swan' event -- martingale leaves... I don't prohibit people I know. . .just people that maintain comparing trading to flipping a coin...

[Tataylo]

I do not ban people I know. . .just people that keep comparing trading to flipping a coin.... Read books about MM from the likes of Van Tharp, Ryan Jones, Ralph Vince. MM is pure mathematics, and possibly the only facet of trading in which mathematics can be implemented with perfect accuracy. It doesn't matter whether you're flipping a coin, playing blackjack, or trading Foreign Exchange #8212; they are all activities with triumph or reduction outcomes, along with the laws of probability and gaming theory necessarily apply. The distinction with trading is that win/loss probabilities on upcoming events can only be anticipated, in appropriate statistical boundaries, from historic performance, as'opinion' #8212; unlike a 50/50 coin toss or the makeup of a card deck #8212; can not be calculated. However, the'gameplay' (which equates to entries/exits in forex) is only your win/loss generator; MM operates individually, and still applies.


This really is not about the programs I have submitted. . .this about how to use martingale....with Money Management.... ....then that the discussion is retained within a realm where mathematics is king.


.01 .02 .08 .16 .32 .64 1.28 2.56 5.12 10.24 20.48 40.96 81.92 = 13 transactions OK, so let us assume an'edgeless' 1:1 RR system, one that will deliver slightly lower win rate than 50%, due to spread/commissions. If you're trading with a 45% gain rate, the probability of 13 consecutive losses in almost any 500 exchange sequence is 19%. See the attached table. However, to be fair, the table assumes that each transaction is an independent event, which with trading is not necessarily true. However, you'd want to prove (statistically) a degree of dependence, first.

OK, assuming I understand you correctly, you cap risk at 16%. Supposing that'19% probability event' occurs and you're down 16%. Now you're back to clawing back the reduction at 0.01% risk per transaction. You're going to want 1,600 winners (0.01% x 1600 = 16 percent ) to compensate for your 13 losses. And that's assuming you are going to get those 1,600 wins before the next'19% probability event' occurs.
[EDIT] At (for instance ) 1 trade every day, and 250 trading days in a calendar year, that's 6.4 decades' worth of trading to return to breakeven.

Moreover, At 1:1 RR, each time you win, you earn 0.01%. Suppose, for instance, you're earning 1 trade every day. Then your annual return (assuming 250 trading days per year) is 1.0001^250 = 1.0253, i.e. 2.5% per year. However, to be fair, this raises significantly if the number of trades per day gt; 1.

Also, 0.01% of $10,000 (total funding ) = $1 risk per transaction. Hence you would require a br0ker that offer nanolots if your SLs transcend 10 pips.

[Side note: Unless you believe that you begin with 0.01 lots rather than 0.01%. In which case you would need COLOSSAL leverage with a $10,000 account (let alone a $1,600 account) to prevent a margin call prior to the 13 steps (at the 13th step you're trading 81.92 lots, or $819 per pip #8212; about a $1,600 account???) . And to cap risk at 16% (rather than 16 lots), you no longer have 13 available steps.... The probability of 9 consecutive losses, for instance, within a 500 trade sequence, is 90 percent ]


I do not ban people I understand... You're welcome to ban mehowever, I believe in freedom of speech, and I'm merely putting a viewpoint here which I think is much needed, to balance the discussion. There'll be newbies reading this thread. (Most threads in terms such as holy grail or martingale in the title appear to get quickly moved into the Rookie forum)

Anyhow, I'm done here. I have clarified my ideas about martingale here. No point in repeating myself (however I always do, LOL).


Would you say with 100% certainty that no meteorite will fall on your own head?
Or that you will not have any auto accident?
Then you shouldn´t utilize your vehicle anymore. Among the fundamental principles of risk management is that the account is never subjected to a SINGLE astrophic event, however improbable. An individual either believes in this kind of risk management, or he doesn't. Everybody has to do anything they feel comfortable together; it's a personal decision. Where the line should be drawn between gambling and trading is problematic. Read the textbooks; the simple fact remains that no significant professional trader endorses martingale.
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15195350671470567191.png

[Uris1975]

the likelihood of 13 successive losses in any 500 trade sequence is ~19% Please see the above mentioned post. . .where I said you'll have 12 potential trades....So what are the chances of losing 13 successive trades in any 12 trade sequence using a win rate of 45%. Also please show your math for this ~19 percent


Then your yearly return (assuming 250 trading days per year) is 1.0001^250 = 1.0253, i.e. 2.5percent per year. But, to be fair, this increases significantly if the number of trades daily gt; 1 ). Seems the best banks in the USA are only offering a 0.75%APY-1.01%APY for accounts $10,000 to $24,999
So 2.5% appears to be pretty great in my book...

[Tataylo]

Please visit the above post. . .where I said you will have 12 possible trades....So what are the chances of dropping 13 consecutive trades at any 12 trade chain with a win rate of 45%. Also please show your mathematics for this ~19 percent The mathematics is calculating cumulative probabilities of a binomial distribution. The probability for 12 consecutive losses in just a 500 trade chain at a 45% win rate is 30%.

I chose 500 trades, as that signifies 2 years trading x 250 trading days each year x one trade every day. Of course you may alter the amounts to fit your situation.

I've attached the XLS so that you can observe the formulae involved, and experimentation with different situations yourself. There are URL references from the XLS.

It is true that, with a trading platform with a win rate gt; 50%, the probabilities improve markedly. It's also a fact that the amounts just apply if all trades are independent events; if you're able to demone some correlation when (for example) adding places to the exact same price movement, then their meaningfulness is diluted accordingly. Also note that the values from yellow do not reflect 0% or 100%, rather lt;0.5percent or gt;99.5% respectively.

[EDIT] The formulae used from the XLS came out of substance by ForexQuant (page among the XLS) and optojay (page two ), in these threads: here. Both seem to provide the identical result, hence I presume that it's correct. Also agrees with the dining table posted initially on the mptrader forum (though I see that has been taken down today ). Anyhow, there can be other advice in those links that are helpful to you.


Seems the top banks in the united states are just offering a 0.75%APY-1.01%APY for accounts $10,000 to $24,999
So 2.5% appears to be pretty good in my book.... I live in NZ. I have money invested in bonds here; some are returning as high as 9.66percent p.a. (before taxation ), but I admit that is at the high end of the risk scale.... Hopefully not as risky as a martingale, LOL. But we live in troubled economic times, so who knows?
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1519535071969903998.xls

[Uris1975]

Also in concept that your win rate is 100 percent....This is martingale we're talking about lol
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15195350731228602767.png
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1519535075227230332.png

[Tataylo]

Additionally in theory your win rate is 100 percent....This is martingale we are talking about lol Not certain how you arrive at that decision.

When the win rate was 100 percent (for every individual exchange ), you could safely risk your entire account on every transaction!
But then you'd want to start a new thread.

Hey, even if you would like to trade martingale, that is cool. It is your money.

[Uris1975]

Not sure how you arrive at the decision.

If the win rate was 100 percent (for every individual exchange ), you can safely risk your complete account on every transaction!
But you'd want to start a new thread.

Hey, if you want to trade martingale, that's cool. It's your money. I was joking....but as you can see its almost impossible to shed 12 trades in a row..unless you are just blindly entering trades...

And also you would be entering more then only 1 trade every day. . .up to 12 possible trades....Until you reached your profit.

[Uris1975]

Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/oohFGOmcxuo?origin=https://www.forum.com

[layunny]

I was joking....but since you can see its nearly impossible to shed 12 trades in a row. .
. Famous last words,

Go make your martingale countless then come back once you have some good evidence.

[Uris1975]

Famous last words,

Proceed make your martingale countless then come back when you have some good evidence. OMG. . .once again with all the evidence factor....go ask a thousand dollar CEO because of his account statements....

Great luck with getting those either...

[Uris1975]

Its fundamental math....

If you don't know the laws of probability....then you don't have a shot in understanding....

But I will tell you this....even if you take advantage of a risk to benefit....you are utilizing a MARTINGALE platform....

If you don't compute your loss at complete ZERO....there is never a loss....nothing but gains....if you look at the range of a pair or stock....

But there is the black swan affect....but what are those chances...? 1:2,000,000 or so....its kind of like never hitting the lotto while you profit from the lotto...

[layunny]

Its fundamental math....

If you do not know the laws of chance....then you do not have a shot understanding....

But I will tell you this....even should you take advantage of a risk to benefit....you are utilizing a MARTINGALE platform.... I get exactly what you're saying partner. Like I said, proceed until you direct a lot of people down this route

Regrettably our financial world is run by such probability models, should be why our markets and financial systems are in such excellent shape too.

[Uris1975]

Oh yea btw....you gotta have atleast 1 guarantee....to even post....this isn't right for people that can not even compute a risk of a trade...

[Uris1975]

I get precisely what you're saying mate. Like I said, proceed until you lead a bunch of people down this path

Regrettably our financial world is run by this kind of probability versions, should be why our markets and financial systems have such great shape as well. Its not because the chances were against them....it was because of greedy pockets....


The chances none the less are 1:1 at certain period....so that's a 50% chance to produce a profit....

So now ask yourself. . .can the chance raise. . .FUCK NO! Its trading you either have a win or loss....but if you want to count breakevens....then you merely cut losses that might have been profitable if you would have allowed for possible losers...

[Uris1975]

So if someone will..since this a VOUCHED thread....

What would be the odds or probability that 12 out of 12 trades will be losers....Just for shits and giggles....you understand even newbies can read this. . .lets stop getting into variety most do not know or if they might have a hint. . .they use the incorrect formula for the equation...

[Uris1975]

You don't need to define the system or anything else besides understanding the POSSIBLE ODDS....or PROBABILITY....that 12 of 12 trades will be wrong...

[Uris1975]

Hanover....your really are a wise mofo...I love your coding, you have help me learn MQL. . .WAY FUCKING BETTER steve *cough cough* whats his SN's remainder. . .you get shit....if you run the numbers in what I call dummy mode

[Uris1975]

Lets get into actual MONEY MANAGEMENT....not shit like risk just 2%-5% per commerce...

that doesn't count on you trading longer then 1 pair....it doesn't count on the probable setups you could have in one afternoon...1 week...1 month...1 year....etc...

[Uris1975]

You wish to get real....then do it starting with your Money Management along with your TRADING CAPITAL....

Obtaining LUCKY is rare....you cant order this shit in the steak house...

[Uris1975]

Its point clean....the more potential setups or trades that a system can create....the more the chances are in your FAVOR! ....

If you blend this with PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT....then your triumph....if that you do not give a fuck....and think you're smarter then another mofo..just because you may spell a word correctly with auto correct....you are doomed for failure!

[Uris1975]

I am not saying use M.. .lets call it from now on....


With 1 pair will constantly work....but if you suggest it using multiple pairs....fuck yes it will....if you know the FACTS! Of the market....which I still have yet to see any of the PRO traders even say happen! ...

[layunny]

The reason this won't work (in my humble view )

Is that you're not trading in 50/50 odds to start with, it will always be skewed at the markets as whatever place you take you have no idea of the outcome. It is not the same as a 50/50 coin exchange. The market may be bullish or bearish at any given time, sometimes impartial. There is no 50/50 about it over 10 trades.

If your system centered on 1000 tests indie that shedding 12 times in a row is impossible then you want no look further than your results and you'll find that (probably) there were instances when you lost 14, 13, 12 times in a row only to be compensated by a massive string of winners (market volatility in its greatest ).

There's no harm (again imo) basing your egies away probabilities, of course this would look a smart (perhaps occasionally bemused ) way of adjusting your trading size. But to back it as RELIGION from the way of martingale (with words such as impossible ), is financial suicide in the end, as it's improbable or impossible as soon as the markets are concerned.

But anyway... Have a go, see what you find.

[Uris1975]

Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/IdbxZ0wlYOA?origin=https://www.forum.com

[layunny]

Another point to think about,,, (you might want to sit down with this )

you'll have to adjust your position sizes to permit for leverage restrictions at the worst case situation of an 11 trade losing streak...

That means you'll be starting fairly little on the first position no? Like really small

Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/0hljPe6euy8?origin=https://www.forum.com


This of course means you'll be missing profits simply to compensate for the improbable event that you hit a bad streak. .

That kinda defeats the purpose ?

[tdopami]

It is amazing that people comment things they don´t know.

If you would dare to check at a H1-chart using a freebie-template,
you wouldn't be able to find more than 2 or 3 losing setups
in a row.
You can return for several years.

Why then are you talking about losing 9 or 10 setups in a row?

Some people just require attention instead of contributing.

[Uris1975]

Is that you are not trading in 50/50 odds to start with, it should always be skewed at the markets because whatever place you take you have no idea of the results. . Well you know that you will win or lose right....so that's a 50/50 shot....


There's no 50/50 about it on 10 trades. . Well your almost right....but when there was just bullish or bearish or. . .maybe occasionally impartial....the chances decrease. . .from 50 percent to 33%. Please refer to the previous page with the chances for losing 12 of 12 and 24 of 24 trades....


In case your system based on 1000 tests indie that losing 12 times in a row is impossible This is almost not about a system....its more about the odds....or odds of you winning 1 of 12 trades....and 1000 tests....that is simply 83 days but there is approximately 240 trading days in a year minus the holidays. So your sole accounting for 34.5% of the trades in 1 years....


But to back it as RELIGION in the method of martingale (with words such as hopeless etc), is financial suicide in the long run, as nothing is impossible or unlikely as soon as the markets are involved. RELIGION--

re·li·gion/ri#712;lij#601;n/
Noun:
The belief in and worship of a superhuman controlling power, esp. A God or gods.
Information of belief as educated or discussed.

Well yes....if you think you can attain....if you can't see what could become. . .how can you see where you'll be in 5 years from now? Can you think all the children that went to college went there to get wild mad drug induced sex using crazy strangers? ( it was FUN! ) ) . . .fuck no they had a GOAL! ....they developed a plan....they worked towards that target filling at the steps in between...

[layunny]

It's amazing that people comment things that they don´t know.

If you would dare to check at a H1-chart using a freebie-template,
you wouldn't have the ability to discover more than two or three losing setups
in a row.
You're able to go back for years.
. Well seems like you've got the grail. What do you do here?

[layunny]

Well you know that you will win or lose right....so that is a 50/50 shot....
. . I frankly have nothing more to sayif that works for then great! Was sparking some things to consider with this Sunday afternoon.

Good luck with it.

[Uris1975]

Well sounds like you have the grail. What do you do here?
Please visit the Freebie ribbon...I get BORED!

[Uris1975]

Another point to think about,,, (you might want to sit down with this one)

you'll have to adjust your position sizes to allow for leverage restrictions in the worst case scenario of an 11 trade losing streak...

This means you will be starting somewhat small on the first position no? Like really modest

http://www.youtube.com/embed/0hljPe6euy8


This of course means you will be missing profits just to compensate for the improbable event that you simply hit a bad streak. .

That kinda defeats the purpose ya? Missing profits? lmao! There's no such thing in gambling. . .that is like chasing Eurusd for each pip to the high and then trying to market it to the low....missing pips....or profit....that will happen!

Lets put it this way and possibly someone will understand what CASH FLOW will be....put $1000 to the account....

Your max risk is 25 percent....your MARGIN....

Then place your Trading Capital Risk with your reinvestment rate....or your CASH FLOW!

And only leave it the fuck alone....its STEADY....CASH FLOW...

[layunny]

I frankly have nothing more to sayif that works for then great! Simply sparked some things to think about on this glorious Sunday afternoon.

Good luck with it.

[Uris1975]

I honestly have nothing more to sayif this works for then great! Was sparking some things to consider on this glorious Sunday afternoon.

Good luck with it. Well this did not begin as a debate....but I figure everyone needs or wants to learn some math and money management(no offence)....so lets say it had been the NEWBIES can learn and possibly a long time members....right?

BTW....its just Sunday morning here lol(4:00am)

[Uris1975]

It's amazing that people comment things they don´t know.

If you would dare to check at a H1-chart using a freebie-template,
you would not be able to find more than two or three shedding installments
in a row.
You're able to return for several years.

Why are you speaking about shedding 9 or 10 setups in a row?

Some people simply need attention instead of contributing. Systems help. . .but like I told Hanvoer. . .this is not any platform for TA. . .its all about a MM system...

[Uris1975]

And not pussies quit posting....its Sunday. . .you don't have SHIT to do. . .unless go to Church. . .then I would know. .

A DEBATE....does not stop since you need water...a tampon....or for you to study the BS you're trying to say!

[Uris1975]

Also.. .if you're likely to give numbers, figures....percents....fractions....do the math on the page....

SHOW YOUR WORK! ....this is middle school for a few....make sure you do it off the NUMBERS I provide not your personal amounts....just to establish a point. . .then you'll be able to present your number of precisely the same PERIOD....TIMEFRAME....ETC....LATER...

[Raul123trader]

I cant resist saying something but a process is merely a range trading system. If price ever goes beyond that range then you're cooked. For example I detect 10 levels being chucked around. If you reenter a trade every 100 pips your trading range then becomes 1000 pips. If price goes 1000 pips and does not perform a retrace of 100 pips to make it work prosper Bye Bye account. If you set it in 200 pips then your range is 2000 pips.You require a 200 pip retrace within 2000 pips for it to work.

The issue with martingale is that. You either will have a pair that is too volatile and will not stay inside the range of the martingale set OR it isn't volatile enough to retrace the number of pips to receive even trade breaks. Either way that is the way martingale systems fail.... Volatile for the range or not volatile enough during a range to return to break even. Sooner or later the market will soon over proceed beyond the range of the system OR it won't move enough inside the range of the machine to work.

So the conclusion is, yes it will work and yes it'll work for a very long period of time but sooner or after price action will proceed in such a way to defeat the machine. In case you have traded long enough to profit and then take profits out of the account then you may make it profitable. Should you leave the profits in and keep raising the account then sooner or after the range will get beat.

[Tataylo]

It's amazing that folks comment things they don´t know.

If you would dare to check at a H1-chart with a freebie-template,
you would not have the ability to discover more than two or three shedding setups
in a row.
You're able to go back for years.

Why are you talking about shedding 9 or 10 installations in a row?

Some folks simply require attention instead of contributing. I believe people do know. The most important thing is that a person either believes in textbook risk management, or he (or she) does not.

Markets are vulnerable to political and economic events: government intervention, wars, terrorist attacks, whatever. On Sept 10, 2001, an individual it is impossible that the world trade centre will ever be ruined, since it has never happened before. Who would have thought what subsequently happened? Occasions like 9/11 can have a aclysmic effect on financial markets.

That I live in NZ. Christchurch had never experienced earthquakes prior to 2011, however, the devastating ramifications of each'quake over the last several months (more than 250 people expired ) had an immediate influence on the NZD, and the sharemarket here. NZ is merely a small country (population ~4 million), but the damage moved into the http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/christchurch-quake-cost-could-hit-30-billion-4482971.

We live in troubled financial times. If I may generalize greed, leverage and the belief that a paper debt isn't real among banks has created a domino effect that's resulted in worldwide recession.
_______________

At some point in history, there would have been a very first time that EU moved gt;200 pips each day. Prior to this day, you could have said it is impossible for EU to move more than 200 pips each day, since it has never happened before. After this event, you state EU will never go more than 300 pips per day.... Until that happens. And so Forth.

I've submitted this http://grailtrading.blogspot.co.nz/ before. It's the fascinating story of a group of experienced traders who assembled an EA made to turn #10,000 into #1,000,000 at a brief space of time. If I recall correctly, it took their account to gt; #100,000 (1,000% profit ) in 40 months, and then slowly imploded over a span of 4 months. It was not a martingale, although apparently had some MM designed to accelerate recovery. However, what interests me most is their conclusion as to the reason why it failed: Those of you who backtest systems wont like this. Most believe that a few months or just a year is long enough to check. It is not. Our evaluation, even nearly 4 years of it with 800 trades of which 20 percent were actual - was not enough. .... Also my message to you and the lesson here is that however much you examine, however far you go back there will be a market condition your evaluation doesn't have. Next time it may be 7 doji's even or together 17. We don't know. The market ranges have got much smaller - the range for cable had been nearly 170 pips per day 05 06 had been 140ish and this year has managed 110. But go to the early 90's and you'll see ranges which will cause you to sweat just by looking.
_______________

For folk who don't have a positive expectancy trading system, then MMs enjoy martingale provide them the opportunity to make money from forex, for as long as the'passing sequence' does not occur. And it may not occur throughout the course of the trading life. However, I would call that gambling rather than trading; your view may differ. It's merely after all.

However a trader with a positive anticipation system has two options: he could either take the identical approach as I've just explained , or he could grind out a living in a fixed 1% (or whatever) risk per transaction. Sure, by performing the latter, he could likewise encounter a'spine swan' chain of trades where the number of losses exceeds the number of wins with a massive sum, resulting in irretrievable drawdown (but one may reasonably ask whether he had a EV system at the first place). However, the point is his risk management buys him time. If he's 20 losses he's down only 20 percent, and he could re-evaluate his strategy, with 80% of his account undamaged. Whereas the martingale trader is not likely to survive 20 consecutive losses (unless his starting position size is little to the point the commensurately tiny returns make the entire exercise pointless).

When you have a EV trading system (i.e. one which yields positive pips( using constant sizing), then there is no need for one to take unnecessary risk.

A risk model must reflect not merely the likelihood of an event occurring, but also the extent of the harm, if a'worst case' event does happen to occur. There is a personal dimension to this. By way of example, if a trader has a tiny portion his net worth in his trading account, then a blown account may not mean disaster justifying more competitive MM.

Like I stated at the beginning, you either believe in risk management, or you don't. You can either (1) move on the basis that certain occasion (s) are so unlikely that you can safely ignore them, or (2) take steps required to insure yourself against themand without detrimentally affecting your EV. If you feel comfortable trading the martingale since you feel that can not possibly happen in the future, that's fair enough. It's your decision, and your money.

[Uris1975]

I cant resist saying something but a martingale system is merely a range trading system. If price ever goes outside that range then you are cooked. For instance 10 levels are noticed by me. If you reenter a trade every 100 pips your trading range then becomes 1000 pips. If price goes 1000 pips and does not do a retrace of 100 pips to make it work prosper Bye Bye account. If you place it in 200 pips then your range is 2000 pips.You require a 200 pip retrace within 2000 pips in order for it to work.

The issue with martingale is this....
I understand what you are saying....but clear that thought from your head for only a minute. This isn't about range trading or fad trading...You wouldn't want to use a 200 pip SL to get a more compact TP. . .as I said in the past posts. . .you only want at 1:1 risk to reward.

We all know for a fact. . .that a pair has to earn a new high or low at some point. Of course there are a number of times where the pair does not violate the high or low. There are a number of days that the high and the low were broken....but that the simple fact remains the same...a new high or low have to be made.

With this said..you do not find an integral level for your SL working with a fold low. . .using some of the or that the ATR. . .you find your SL based off your TP. . .which are the high or low. . .since we all know for true that it will be at some stage.

[Raul123trader]

[QUOTE=;]I cant resist saying something but a martingale system is merely a range trading system.

That which you say is indeed true and I agree BUT you still got the martingale head on. You need to think out side of this box (stated in a friendly way). If you have a fantastic strike rate 1. You don't need to M. or two. You can. I compound a lot thats understanding I have a fantastic strike rate and thats a winner. Take care People who know me understand I am all for thinking outside the box. I use multi level trading and have a hit ratio of winners. So you will see I am interested in new concepts that think outside the box. So I will be interested in the topic, I just found this thread. Since in the event that you have solved the issue of martingale moving out its range I am all ears on this one.

[Uris1975]

Individuals who know me know I am all for thinking outside the box. I utilize multi level trading and also have a hit ratio of winners. So you will see I am interested in new theories that think outside the box. I will be interested in the subject I just found this thread yesterday. Because in the event that you have solved the problem of martingale moving outside its range I am all ears on this one. What exactly are you discussing? Moving outside of what range....and that is what you want....Every pair....on any TF....has to make a new high or new low. . .it could be on the M1. . .M5....M15. . .M30 etc.. .

So why are you thinking about only trading in a range....or worried about something staying inside a range. . .think about it breaking up the range...

[Raul123trader]

What are you referring to? Moving outside of what range....and that is what you need....Every pair....on any TF....has to make a new high or new low. . .it could be on the M1. . .M5....M15. . .M30 etc.. .

So why are you thinking about trading in a range....or worried about something staying in a range. . .think about it breaking the range.... Give me a couple of posts of dumping the normal martingale thinking. I will get what your trying to state but it may take some time to me. So keep teaching I'll try my best to understand the concept.

[Uris1975]

Give me a couple of posts of dumping the normal martingale thinking. I'll get exactly what your trying to say but it may take some time to me. So keep instruction I'll try my best to understand the idea. What's the normal martingale thinking?

What I am trying to inform people is straightforward. . .you can use martingale and do so profitably but you have to use real cash management and understand how many trades each interval you'll have.

You can not just say lets risk 1% or all your entire account balance and don't have any clue about where price goes....That is why everyone says martingale won't and cannot work....because they don't have any clue on how best to trade, actual cash management and they don't know or see the facts of their markets.

[Tataylo]

Hanover....your are a wise mofo...I love your coding, you have help me learn MQL. . .WAY FUCKING BETTER then steve *cough cough* whats his SN's remainder. . .you get shit....if you run the numbers in what I call dummy mode I'd be happy to work on a programming job, but only when somebody can disprove mathematically exactly what I currently believe to be authentic. My view is that MM can not give an edge.

I've posted different XLSs before, similar to the attached, which compute expectancy for every single possible combination of wins and losses over X trades, using different'progressive' MM approaches: martingale, anti-martingale, d'Alembert, Labouchere, Guetting, Oscar's Grind, Fibonacci, flat betting. Assuming a random distribution of wins and losses, it doesn't matter which of these MMs you use: each one redistributes reduction and triumph sizes differently, but delivers a expectancy of zero. In plain English, that means that, everything else being equal, the will be, eventually delivered by all MMs, if exchanged for long enough, and provided that they avoid ruin.

Having said that, there are two provisos:

1. The above assumes that each trade is an event that is independent; which each of the 64 possible outcomes is likely. If there's some amount of correlation between trade results (e.g. a triumph is much more inclined than 50/50 to be followed by another triumph; or a reduction is much more inclined than 50/50 to be followed by a win), then this is no longer correct. But the win/loss patterns rely on the trading system (entries/exits), and I'd need to view formal statistical evidence.

2. By putting higher position sizes on winning trades, an advantage can be created or enhanced. But this presupposes that you know beforehand that trades are more likely to be winners, more compared to many others. (For instance, if installation A delivers a greater expectancy/profit factor than installation B, then you'd be justified in risking longer on position A). But again, this depends on the trading system, and I'd need to see evidence. Plus it means that B and A would need to be demonstrated expectancy setups, to justify trading them. To put it differently, you need an edge to begin with: ch-22.

Simply raising position size to recoup recent losses doesn't have mathematical basis, because market behaviour and probabilities aren't likely to changeout of empathy for just one retail trader's P/L. Therefore, if you're likely to typical down your losing trades, you require statistical evidence that price is much more prone than 50/50 to revert into an average, i.e. that each step on your'grid' is far more likely to succeed compared to the preceding one, to justify a rise in position dimensions, that is commensurate with the improved likelihood. To put it differently, the same logic as in stage 2. And assuming you would like to avoid irretrievable drawdown, then you also should factor in a means of handling risk in a potential'worst case' situation (the topic of my previous posts).

David
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15195350071849897175.xls

[Uris1975]

Shake them haters off! LOL
Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/AV8aiI-NIIA?origin=https://www.forum.com

[arocaoxn]

Martingale is only going to buy you time. . Until it clears u out. Lookup mgrid its a smarter grid thought but same matter. Buys you time at the expense of slower steadier expansion prior to the bust...

As said only method you can beat it is by somehow improving risk reward etc like going for a risk 1 reward 4 entrance inside precisely the exact same setup as regular and doing it frequently winnig as many times as you would normally. But that defeats purpose of using a lot of risk to gain little all the other times...

An edge is the edge and I come back full circle once I ask myself but why not? Im sure I can win the majority of the time without losing streaks that are large. Actually its constantly disproven by the market!

Why don't you await a hh or ll then applying some favourable risk reward into a trade? Say a 16 to 1 and see that your system will last a long time where as before you would lose one unit now you lose 37,, but will have 16 declines in a row.

Your pro is that you get 1 unit as opposed to 16 when you drive a triumph...

Sometimes stretching the odds brings the border cases to light.

[arocaoxn]

True story I made a scalper doubled your account every month. A handful of losses that are historic. I employed mgale to it and went live. First week it warms up!! Market is always going after your sl. . So you play you've got hope your trade will survive and when others get thrashed.


Thats where this forum is useful to see wherenthe pain threshold is... Before I started Foreign Exchange I went to a demonstration
and started making random trades saw how simple it was to create a hundred. Went live with same mentalitly and a small amount and noticed from once you input game is rigged. My sl was shut and always hit without entering 1 pip profit. Noticed on tick chart during slow times after that when I put a sozed order of say 5 lots I visit price tick opposite direction. Your order is hedged.

I created profits when I played over the course of a slaughter or higher volatility. . Market saw more pain than my profit so that it gives me a hall pass... You get sufficient hall passes and you will hit home runs... This is what I mean
by improving risk reward. You backtest it because market is dynamic.

[Uris1975]

Everyone that is posting is not even taking the opportunity to read the entire THREAD or even do the math....

Trading is easy, OVER THINKING is HARD


**EDIT** Properly a few....but most don't. . .they like to be the fools of all FF....lol