Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

[audio]

OK so many of you have read the order flow - locating cluster of stops chart, and that's lovely. But I guess I started off at the wrong direction. It seems to not be on the chart, however supporting it.

The order flow thread concerning locating cluster of stops A CHART got overextended really, even though it has some MIGHTY fantastic details. What some of those men have said there takes off lots of time of this learning curve.

This ribbon I Would like to be about what is behind the transfer. What makes the price inefficient? What does disequlibirum mean and how can this influence prices?
Basically, it is everything that transfers the price, however it's not permitted to be showed on a chart. Actual discussion. I want your ideas on equilibrium. Disequlibiurm. Balance. Imbalance. WHAT MAKES PRICE MOVE?

I might shoot one off at this time. I really don't have a fucking clue why price goes and why sometimes it spikes up and goes down, is it price inefficiency? Inform me about it. If so, what made that specific player (let us say. .) Bid up the price of the currency so high? And why? If it was not the real value?

I have noticed sometimes that about the 5/15 minute chart we've spikes up in price, from nowhere. . Price moves 20-25-30 pips up on a single candle (sometimes more. . But for some reason. . NEVER WITH A RETRACEMENT ) after which the transfer get's faded 100 percent and sticks around precisely the same place it transferred from. Then it generally trades in another direction. I.e. when it moves up and has faded, it continues to proceed down. . Why is that do you think? And no, it's not due to RSI.

This thread is about attaining the mindset of an order flow trader. And you are not permitted to post one chart.
Hopefully this thread will allow me to THINK about what is occurring and draw a conclusion in my mind, and then test my assumptions available on the market.

Take care, and I hope I am not taking to a lot of your time, whoever you are. But understand that I really wish to learn and there are several others who really wish to.

[layunny]

66950
you would like to observe the IFR forexwatch and orders board and alternatives stuff... I filter out the rest. Is it worth the $125 per month?

[edukrdoka]

66950
you want to watch the IFR forexwatch and orders board and options stuff... I filter out the rest.
Exactly. Keep digging and you'll find the significant things, but Monroe basically identified what I believe to be the most important info on IFR.

[Rafalete68]

66950
Is it worth the $125 per month? 125$ per month? Shit is liberated on oanda... and yea dude, I believe that it is well worth it if I had to cover it. I'd rather have a complete thompson reuters news feed IFR even though... this I might pay extra for.

I do not believe you want it.... But it's something I would do for the business since I trade intraday. However, as of right now I am cool with all the free shit that is accessible...

[layunny]

66950
125$ per month? Shit is free on oanda... and yea dude, I believe it is worth it if I had to cover it. I'd rather have a complete thompson reuters news feed IFR even though... this I would pay extra for.

I do not believe you need it.... Nonetheless, it's something I would do for the business, especially since I trade intraday. However, as of right now I'm cool with all of the free shit that is available... haha OK thanks man.

[audio]

66950
you want to observe the IFR forexwatch and orders board and options stuff... I filter out the remainder. Hmm. . Do not know about this but sounds a bit wierd. I opened FXNews and unchecked 4Cast, Dow Jones and UBS. The only one checked is IFR Markets, which one contains 23 posts and nobody of them is all about order flow, options or anythaaang. . As if I am doing something incorrect? Can't find the order board or option board (or the equivalent).

Take care

[layunny]

66950
Hmm. . Do not know really about this but seems a bit wierd. I opened FXNews and unchecked 4Cast, Dow Jones and UBS. The only one assessed is IFR Markets, which you contains 23 posts and nobody of these is about order flow, alternatives or anythaaang. . Sounds as if I'm doing something incorrect? Can't find the order plank or option board (or the equivalent).

Take care Welcome to this info search... There's no big bolded font saying hey trader really beneficial information this way gt;gt;gt;gt;

I think for whatever really helpful you would have to dig like a beaver and utilize a bit of wit.

Is it any coincidence the fantastic material is buried by all the sound...?

That's just me, maybe somebody else could be helpful.

[Rafalete68]

66950
Hmm. . Don't know really about this but sounds a little wierd. I opened FXNews and unchecked 4Cast, Dow Jones and UBS. The only one assessed is IFR Markets, and that one only contains 23 articles and no one of these is about order flow, options or anythaaang. . Seems as if I am doing something wrong here? Can't find the order plank or option board (or the equivalent).

Take care Jesus Christ Carnegie!!!!!

Haha jk bro...

Sometimes they won't show up until about 12-2am EST or whenever they report it... then you will notice the boxes appear, but you should always see'ifr forexwatch' so maintain that assessed and kill the remainder until orders plank and options appear then assess them also and you're going to get exactly what you're searching for.

Test it out today and return and reload yesterday or'now' where it says dated on the upper right side. That will reload you'll be able to search back for about a week or so and all todays or yesterdays stuff, you will see them appear

[audio]

66950
Welcome to this information search... There is no large bolded font saying hey trader really helpful advice this manner gt;gt;gt;gt;

I think for whatever really useful you would have to dig like a beaver and use a bit of wit.

Is it any coincidence the great stuff is buried by all the sound...?

That's just me, perhaps someone else could be more helpful. Hey cindy,

I think you misunderstood me here. . By no way am I attempting to be anything or spoon-fed here, I just thought there was something that I overlooked.
It is extremely clear to me that news and good info won't be on the first column screaming READ ME TO MAKE MONEY. . but on the other hand. . My bullshit-indior informs me that's how it functions (. .and doesn't work out). Funny world https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317074.png

Take good care.

[Rafalete68]

66950by the way, 4cast can give some Advice and DJ market talk

[Rafalete68]

66950I guess it is how you utilize this information... it is not going to be staring you in the face how to withdraw money from such asswipes... so you are gonna need to be good...

[audio]

66950
Jesus Christ !!!!!

Haha jk bro...

Sometimes they won't show up until approximately 12-2am EST or whenever they report it... then you'll see the boxes appear, but you need to always see'ifr forexwatch' so maintain that checked and kill the remainder until orders board and choices appear then check them too and you'll get exactly what you're searching for.

Test it out now and go back and reload yesterday or'today' where it states obsolete on the upper right side. That will reload all todays or even yesterdays stuff and you can look back for about a week or so, you'll... What the man. . While I attempt to download some other dates (like yesterday, this week ) I get Error.

'ifr forexwatch' so maintain that checked and kill the remainder until orders board and choices appear then check them too and you'll get everything you're searching for.

You mean only leaving IFR checked and leave the remainder. However, what do you intend with check them too after order board and alternatives appear? I believed IFR composed concerning order board and choices. . The other ones were just bs news such as daily high low and nonsense.

Be careful

[Rafalete68]

66950Carnegie... click on the IFR menu and you will see what I'm talking about, it is possible to filter out what you want and don't want from IFR or DJ.

Do you determine what I'm saying? come on C....

[audio]

66950
... click the IFR menu down and you'll see what I am referring to, you can filter out what you want and don't desire from IFR or DJ.

Would you see what I am saying? Come on C.... I see whatcha stating monnie monroe. . But the fact of the matter is the fact that it ain't working, you get old news since it sends me an error message that there is a error and then I have to log into the platform again. I think there is something wrong with my net connection actually. .

Anyhow thanks for trying Monroe really grateful!
Take care

[Rafalete68]

66950Yea this bit of crap can act up from time to time... try again in a bit.

But now with all this info you can get and your understanding of structure and microstructure of the FX market and how they work it, do you believe that you can put something together?

[pixatintes]

66950 that is what I like to look at
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios

if u visit historic open positions ull see that majority of traders were always wrong
no wonder marketmaker like oanda produces a lot of money
week ago it was 40% buy,today its 45%
3 weeks ago it was 40% buy thats when up market began I believe or two weeeks ago
if u wish to find the orderflow just go to forexlive,they've reuters orderbook
but nevertheless they aint the holy grail,it just helps with looking in the quantity on m1,and studying whos selling everything,major players
yesterday swiss bank sold off 300m eurusd and shipped the market downwards

I locate the london session the very important for trading,its interestign that it has a directional bias,what im referring to is that it always goes for example,
in tokyo last 20 m downwards,then london opens, and alternative direction,by following teh moving average of 20 smoothed,u can see whether its coming again,and after 30-90 minutes of drama in london it reverses,I left alot of pips such as this final weeks yesterday I dropped it all,by going contrary to the london,which just shows how successful it's
heres my analysis
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317074.png

[Rafalete68]

66950
this is what I like to look at
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios

if u visit historical open positions ull see that majority of traders were constantly wrong
no wonder marketmaker like oanda makes a lot of money
week past it had been 40% buy,now its 45 percent
3 months ago it had been 40% buy thats when up market started I think or two weeeks ago
if u wish to find the orderflow just go to forexlive,they have reuters orderbook
but still they aint the holy grail,it just helps with looking at the quantity on m1,and reading whos selling... Yea... I hear you... attempt the oanda orderbook and place the available orders to'internet' positions, and perform with that for awhile...

london is easily the best to exchange, but NY reversals can be quite nice with the news.

[audio]

66950
Yea this bit of crap can act up from time to time... try again in a bit.

But now with all this information you can get along with your understanding of structure and microstructure of the FX market and how they operate it, do you think you can put something together? Yeah I'll try shortly.

That is a fantastic question but the harsh truth is that I still do not understand enough about structure/mkt. Microstructure to earn a edued guess. However, now I have defined what the order flow mentality would be to me personally (swear to god because the day I discovered the order flow mentality and that which causes orders I have been walking around day and night considering potential scenarios. . I understand like a billion scenarios that would cause order flow today ) the only thing I should to next is keep analyzing and look at IFR from time to time and examine my own thinking on a couple of demo transactions. . Merely to see how it works out you understand.

I guess I was looking for the wrong thing with IFR. . You need to read every article to understand what's going on. . I thought it'd say right on the headlines: OPTION BARRIER 1.35. .or STOPS BELOW 1.3450, suppose I was wrong though https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317075.png

But to answer your question. . In time and as I learn more, I'm certain that I will Have the Ability to put something together https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317075.png

Take care

[edukrdoka]

66950
I suppose I was looking for the wrong thing with IFR. . You have to read each guide to understand what's happening. . I thought it would say right about the headlines: OPTION BARRIER 1.35. .or STOPS BELOW 1.3450, suppose I was wrong though https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317075.png Sometimes it'll say things as evident as that correct in the name, but there generally isn't a lot of that type of advice coming out at 7:00pm ET. Like Monroe after it starts working correctly, stated, download each the headlines from the afternoon and decide which ones you need to filter out.

[Rafalete68]

66950
Yeah I'll try shortly.

That's a fantastic question but the harsh fact is that I do not know enough about structure/mkt. Microstructure to make a guess that is edued. But now I have understood what the order flow mentality would be to me (swear to god because the day I found the order flow mentality and that which causes orders I have been walking around day and night thinking about potential scenarios. . I know like a billion scenarios that would cause order flow now) that the one thing I must next would be keep studying and look at IFR from time to time... well I hear you, just keep in mind the sessions, whats happening in the market, the prejudice, the subject at the time, what's going to be happening that can cause movements, the positioning, exactly what these men do for liquidity, etc . .

And sometimes they will in fact say that thing... option at 1.35, bids here, offers there, stops below/above and you need to work it all out. But go short there you know, go here and it is not likely to be so straight forward as okay?

Forexlive does the same crap with there bank contacts... and keep in mind this is where this info is coming from so... use your head. I think this is the reason why DS states it is an art. So just keep practicing...

[audio]

66950
well I hear you, just remember the sessions, whats going on in the market, the bias, the subject at the moment, what will be occurring that can cause movements, what these guys do to liquidity, etc etc.. .

And occasionally they will in fact state that exact thing... option at 1.35, bids here, provides there, stops below/above and you have to work out it. Nonetheless, it's not going to be so straight forward go long here and proceed there you know? This is intriguing. . This is like the fifth time or something someone mentiones bias and I really believe I must make som attempt in trying to comprehend market'bias'. But for me that's the tendency (a handicap from being a TA-trader) and the research I created out of tendency... Well, to be short I can say right now they do not fit to a OF traders mentality.

I see exactly what you are saying Monroe and frankly, I really don't want it to say go here short there. . I want to work out that . Figure I find out more.

Care for guys nice to have a discussion here again.

[pixatintes]

113725
Yea... I hear you... try the oanda orderbook and place the open orders to'net' rankings, and play with that for awhile...

london is easily the very best to exchange, however NY reversals can be very nice with the news. Tokyo open too,its biased u can get like 5-10 pips of tokyo open,just reverse the trend before tokyo,
5-10 minutes to tokyo
forgot to tell this

[Rafalete68]

101517
tokyo open too,its biased u can get like 5-10 pips of tokyo available,only reverse the trend until tokyo they mess about in tokyo...

[juangjb]

113725
Yea... I hear you... attempt the oanda orderbook and set the open orders to'net' rankings, and perform with that for awhile... I only did that, and if I read it correctly, it seems there are a lot of traders brief only under 3600, that would mean lots of stops above. Tomorrow, we see a run up? Just a guess, not going to trade it.

[pixatintes]

113725
they mess around in tokyo.... what do u mean?

[Rafalete68]

113725
I just did that, and when I read it right, it appears there are a lot of traders brief just under 3600, that might imply lots of stops up above. Tomorrow, we see a jog up? Only a guess, not likely to exchange it. Do you see where there stops likely are?

You can see this on the chart should you understand how folks are there and trading egies they use however, this could help support it.

I have been doing this as part of my trading... seeing everything plays out. Fake to the downside again, hit the stops on traders moving to get a dip then venture up?? We are going to see. I'd wait until about london because of this.

also. . Offers some great info concerning the workings of traders so that you may choose to read that things if you have not...

[Pandegamba_]

101517About Tokyo, London and NY flows: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/02/10/485151/its-midnight-in-tokyo/

http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/02/Nomura_yen1.png

[Rafalete68]

101517nice Adal.

Yen and swissy were offered heavy last night seemingly... just lookin' at the charts.

[audio]

Is that it doesnt quote orders and flows frequently. Not from what I have observed the days atleast. . Its about TA and other stuff.



well I hear you, just remember the sessions, whats going on in the market, the prejudice, the theme at the time, what will be happening that can cause moves, the positioning, exactly what those guys do for liquidity, etc . .

And sometimes they will in fact say that thing... alternative at 1.35, bids here, provides there, stops below/above and you need to work out it. Nonetheless, it's not likely to be so straight forward go here and go short there you understand?

Forexlive does exactly the same crap with there bank contacts... and also remember that this is...

[Rafalete68]

113725
Yep the only thing I dislike using this IFr support is that it doesnt quote orders and flows frequently. From what I have seen, not the last days atleast. . Its about stuff and TA. It's not like you can not put the TA information to use too. . Consider it.

[Hozgarganta2]

101517
it's not like you can not place the TA information to use too. . Think about it. I had been just about to say that. Aids in getting a read on market sentiment.

[JaviNota]

101517Hey Guys,

Nice thread you have going on ! I have an interest in ordeflow trading and have made it to the point where I know a lot about the market and its arrangement but may never make it beyond there.

Please don't feel that I'm trying to place this thread off course but something which has enabled me to gain further insight is by studying Mind over Markets by James Dalton. Within this novel they refer Shorter time frame being traders etc and Longer timeframe participants being speculators etc.. He breaks there activity down to Responsive and Initiative.

For example when price breaks from a range this is brought on by Iniative activity they'll force price to some higher then take profit causing price to pull back afterward responsive participants will input as price has fallen under worth causing price to climb . Okay I know it does not always happen like this but hope you get the jist!

Secondly Dalton says that Price time=Price. If price has been hanging around in precisely the exact same place for the market has accepted that price as price. Consider it if price has been hanging around in precisely the exact same place. Also another way to look at these areas is if I had been a trader using positions I'd prefer these areas as there a plenty of folks keeping my down operating costs and thus around to do business together.

Hope this helps.

James.

[tanabas]

66950 As some people fall in the trap of analysis paralysis, a few individuals are able to fall in the trap of only when I order this next book, only when I study this next course, only if I read this next article then I can figure this out order flow material... Now everyone needs good information to work with, and that's precisely what I have tried to provide in my posts. Along with the learning never ends, even once you become an orderflow trader the learning never ends.

But markets do not have to be hard. You have to follow the order flow, follow the money that will flow in and out once you establish your position. Markets can be easy.

So back to my 3 column exercise. Markets can be easy. Lets give an example in which you want to make a 150 pip profit in EUR/USD, and lets say you would like to utilize a 50 pip stop. Just giving an illustration.
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293170661137681438.png

[barpklijo]

66950
As some people fall into the trap of analysis paralysis, some people are able to fall into the trap of only when I order this following book, only when I research this following course, only if I read this article then I can find out this order flow material.... Appears like the egy explained, thanks a lot, grkfx. Would you provide an instance of the paragraph about competitive market orders? I can't imagine such a situation. If you know in advance where others will execute their market orders why don't they simply set their limit orders now?

[tanabas]

66950
Looks like the egy explained, thanks a lot,. Would you provide an example of the paragraph about aggressive market orders? I simply can't imagine such a circumstance. If you know in advance where others are going to execute their market orders why don't they simply set their limit orders now? You never know for certain. You simply try to set your stop set up, where it's simply beyond the reach of the market. You try to set it where by the time the market reaches there, it has gone through 2-3 different layers/phases of mispricings. If market participants consider it they can come and generate order flow, whether market orders or standing limit orders. You place it at a location where market participants would be salivated at the opportunity to get in through either market or limit orders.

So if your stop gets hit at the end it was a result of terrible analysis/trade at the first place, or you have unlucky, or the market just hardly came and touched that your stop loss then reversed.
I would not know if the stop positioning should be 50 pips away, maybe you may eliminate 25 pips depending on what the situation looks like and how the liquidity is dispersed, and where the potential mispricings are, and also where different market participants will arrive in to generate order flow.

[barpklijo]

66950
You never know for certain.... Well, I know. I could not find an example when I would know in advance where others are going to start executing market orders.

[Anakin78]

66950A quick word about otc options:

the greater banks are involved in certain (barrier) amounts the better they can protect their particular interests.
That sort of advice can be really useful for extra order flow behavior.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950I have read all of the articles and have been following this thread for a few days. Some recognizable names here of people I respect and that I appreciated ideas and your thoughts. In all honesty, I am not sure I get the entire concept of order flow as shown or as it's evolving , but I shall visit DS's substance to supplement what I have learned in this thread.

My concept of order flow is to watch price action and that which it's offering: square and move (and note what goes unsquared); surge and retrace; inverse. After things begin, they follow the very same patterns.

I shall follow along and engage again if I think of anything which may be useful.

[dealbagarcay]

66950
My idea of order flow is to observe price action and what it is offering: move and square (and notice what goes unsquared); surge and retrace; reverse. After things begin, they follow the same patterns. It's not really about price patterns, price patterns will be the consequence. It's more about behaviour patterns.
And read all DarkStar's articles, along with Gaston's.

[soxido]

66950
A quick word about otc choices:

the more banks are involved in certain (barrier) amounts the better they can safeguard their particular interests.
That kind of advice can be indeed helpful for extra order flow behaviour. A prime example of this is what occurred in EUR/USD on Friday Feb. 11. https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317060.png.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
It's not really about price patterns, price patterns are the outcome. It's more about behavior patterns.
And yes, read all DarkStar's posts, combined with Gaston's.
Hello Scott89, yep I receive that price action is a consequence of order flow. However, PA and TA appear to be the only thing we have since order flow information isn't available to any of us.

If I am not confused, order flow information is spread out on many systems (at the actual orders that are entered into systems), without a centralized view of those orders existing anywhere. The quality of those orders is a queries, since it is quite difficult to tell an order is sitting on a system and the intentions of the trader or organization that placed it.

Additionally, many large institutions avoid entering these orders in to systems. Instead, there are a number of planned orders that just exist within the minds of the institutional traders/organizations. And, the actions by central banks will be kept as a secret.

I am not wanting to rain on anyone parade here, because I feel an order flow mind set is quite beneficial in trading. IMHO, however, there are limitations to. It is something. As we e together with the market, and as PA/TA unfold in front of us, we are constantly asking ourselve what the traders are currently doing about how the next candle might grow, and they're telling us.

So to DS and many others that are know much more about this than I do, can it be possible to come up with an order flow method with out the order flow information, or can it be necessary (demanded ) to wed up TA/PA at some point?

If I've taken this thread off track, just let me know and I'll return to just reading the thread. Please believe me that I admire what you people are doing here. Thanks! And good trading!

[Juana.pkmixxar]

113725
You never know for certain. You try to set your stop set up, where it is just beyond the range of the market. You attempt to set it into a place where by the time the market reaches there, it has gone through 2-3 different layers/phases of mispricings. If specific market participants consider it as a mispricing they can come and generate order flow, whether market orders or standing limit orders. You merely put it in a place where particular market participants would be only salivated at the chance to get in through market or limit orders.

So... Hi grkfx, I've really enjoyed your articles here. I wanted to supply a notion based on this post: is the notion of mispricing a generation of the retail FX market? I am not sure (really don't understand ) is institutional traders think this way.

Big banks, hedge funds, and so forth, are constantly in the market with places moving both ways. If the euro drops 100 pips, they have places that are in the cash by 100 pips, and places that are down 100 pips. So as soon as the market stalls, they make the process that is stalling by dumping some of the positive places and adding positions moving the other way. At some point, the market reverses and their new rankings help them rescue the negative positions that were abandoned while the market made the move.

For these big men, do they view the market as mispriced, or is their opinion more related to portfolio positions and balance? Where we can find information on their considering 14, I am not certain. However, the idea of mispriced could be all we can utilize and create (as retail traders) to approximate what is really happening in the market.

[Pandegamba_]

66950
Big banks, hedge funds, and so forth are always in the market with positions going both ways. If the euro drops 100 pips, they have positions that are in the money by 100 pips, and positions that are down 100 pips. So when the market stalls, the process that is stalling is created by them by adding positions going the other way and ditching some of the favorable positions. The market reverses as well as their new rankings help them save the negative positions that were abandoned while the market made the first move. You're talking here about dumb retail hedging. Big banks have.

But netting is quite difficult to perform in practice, since you can have several desks/systems putting on positions. A lot of money was invested in the last years by banks on internal order-flow crossing technology, so that the flows are aggregated at one global order book.


For these huge men, do they view the market as mispriced, or is their view more related to portfolio positions and equilibrium? Statistical arbitrage is about finding mispricings. A lot of participants do this all day long, among other things like HFT that play games.

[layunny]

66950
So to DS and many others who are know much more about that than I do, is it possible to develop an order flow method with out the order flow information, or is it required (required) to wed up TA/PA sooner or later? Depends what you mean by info. If your asking is it done without all of the large banks and brokers providing you that their orderbooks... the answer is definitly yes. Can it be done without even knowing where traders have their orders? No more... thats the whole point of the methodology.

The best way to go about getting it's the question you need to work on. There's an answer; you just need to give a thought to it.

[tanabas]

66950
Hello, I've really enjoyed your articles here. I wanted to offer a notion based on this post: is the thought of mispricing a generation of the retail forex market? I'm not sure (actually don't understand ) is institutional traders think this way.

Big banks, hedge funds, etc, are constantly in the market with places going both ways. If the euro falls 100 pips, they have places which are in the money by 100 pips, and places which are down 100 pips. So when the market stalls, they create the stalling process by dumping some of the positive places and... Well you can call it mispricing or even the stars aligned for youpersonally, or anything you want. It does not matter what you call it. Is that it generates order flow and transfers prices. Since the one thing which will determine if you profit or not is the order flow and behaviour of other market participants who can and will move price.

Big banks and hedge funds constantly have places that move both ways? Really? Why do they want to do that? There has to be sometimes they think the price should go a certain way and just bet on that. Why the hell do they want to hold positions which are both 100 pip in profit and 100 pip in declines? Now perhaps the market manufacturers have stock they need to manage, but that would be the huge banks and not the funds.

You seem to make the premise that the market manufacturers balancing their books and hoping to bail from transactions always causes market motion. Well I really don't know much about that. However, they're not the one thing which generates order flow. Sometimes they can play a huge part, other times their order flow and bandwidth is just a drop in the bucket.

I just concentrate on things that I can objectively potentially quantify.

As for what the big men see, I just think about their positions, their emotions, their expectations, their prospective pain tolerance, their sentiment etc and determine when they can generate order flow and move price.

Sorry if it wasn't the answer you were looking for, but that's just what is going through my thoughts.

[Evamm]

66950
Depends what you mean by info. If your asking can it be done without all the big banks and brokers providing you their orderbooks... the answer is definitly yes. Can it be done without even knowing where traders have their orders? No more... thats the entire point of the methodology.

How you go about getting it's the question you need to work on. There is an answer; you have to give it a thought. I believe two of the easiest ones to figure out are techs and news. Because techs, certain patterns may attract orders . News may bring people to put orders in the market, albeit in which way it's sometimes difficult to figure.

Then there is bank intervention, commercial transactions, option play... and likely a small number of additional orderflow generators.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Of course not. If there's anything as true/fair value (and there is), then what exactly are deviations from stated value? Thank you eurotrash, I'll appreciate your remark. In the event that you asked 1000 traders what the value of the euro is, my guess is you'd get 2000 answers.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
You are talking here about dumb retail hedging. Big banks have.

But netting is quite hard to perform in practice, as you can have multiple desks/systems putting on positions. A lot of money was spent by big banks on internal order-flow crossing technologies, so that all the flows are aggregated in a single global order book.

Statistical arbitrage is about discovering mispricings. A lot of participants do so all day , among other matters like HFT... Hi Adal, no I'm not talking about retail hedging. I am talking about how large institutional operations work. You all should understand, these operations are holding positions going both ways. . .always. Knowing that is pretty significant to some conversation in order flow, at least in my mind.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Depends what you mean by info. If your asking is it achieved without all of the large banks and brokers providing you that their orderbooks... the response is definitly yes. Could it be achieved without knowing where traders have their orders? No... thats the whole point of the methodology.

How you go about getting it is the question you want to work on. There's an answer; you have to give some serious thought to it. Due Darkstar. My response is that I use TA and PA to do it, with all the consciousness of order flow functioning in the background. It sounds like your strategy is a order flow strategy, is that right?

[Pandegamba_]

66950
Hello, no I'm not speaking about retail hedging. I am speaking about large institutional operations work. You should know, these operations are currently holding positions going both ways. . .always. Knowing that is significant to a conversation in order flow, at least in my own mind. I think you are confusing them having limit orders at the book on both sides together having places both ways. In one tool you may have a position at any given time - the net position of the orders, even if you both sold and bought multiple times. The orders will average out to provide the position that is legitimate to you.

You're probably thinking with a MetaTrader like mindset of multiple opened places.

This is an issue of defining the word position. You're employing the retail definition, I am using the definition.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Well you can call it mispricing or the stars aligned for you, or whatever you desire. It doesn't matter what you call it. The one thing that's important is that it generates order flow and moves prices. Since the one thing which will determine whether you profit or not is the order flow and behaviour of other market participants who can and will move price.

Big banks and hedge funds constantly have places that move both ways? Really? Why would they want to do that? There must be sometimes they think the price should go a particular way and only bet on... Thanks I love your ideas. Yea, I figure it is either an advantage or a curse to comprehend how large institutions (eg, DB, Citi) manage themselves. Keep in mind there are very sophistied procedures to control risk, leverage opportunties, keep the portfolios balanced, etc.,. However, I agree with you about thinking about their positions when trading, except I am not concerned about their emotions or pain tolerance, only they are managing places and profit/loss. LOL-I have a tough enough time handling my emotions let alone worry about someone at DB who is under water on his trades.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
I believe you are confusing them having limit orders in the book on both sides with them having places both ways. In 1 instrument you can have a place at any given moment - the web position of the orders, even if you purchased multiple times and both sold. The orders will just average out to provide the true position to you.

You're probably thinking with a MetaTrader like mindset of multiple opened places.

This is a matter of defining the word position. You're using the retail definition, I'm using the appropriate definition.... Hi Adal, no I'm thinking about how large institutional operations work. Yes, they have open trades moving both ways at all times, and the aggregate of these open positions is the institution's exposure. I have a tendency to unite my own current retail trading firm with my experience with banks. Sorry if I'm confusing you with that. My only reason for bring this up is that order flow is going to be influenced (at any point) by these associations squaring up those left behind positions. Only in extreme cases will this not happen. It's as predictable as the sun which I think is one of the objectives of order flow analysis, right?

[rayooxiden]

Men might spell it out. You have already given it all away. -_-

[Nacho]

66950
You guys might as well just spell it out. You have given it away. -_- Excellent! Now can we concentrate on creating the EA...

[rayooxiden]

66950
Great! Now can we concentrate on creating the EA... That's a fantastic way to look at it. lol

[LuisYoGoLo]

66950It's great that this discussion is currently taking place to spread some sense of orderflow. But I am just hoping that men who have figured this out order flow methodology would just hold their tongue and not spill everything. Finally there's restricted profit pool wihtin the retail trader globe, the less people that knows about this edge the better....

Only my 2 pennies.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
It is great that this discussion is taking place to spread some awareness of orderflow. But I am just hoping that guys who have figured out this order flow methodology will just hold their tongue and not spill everything. Finally there's restricted profit pool wihtin the retail trader world, the people that knows about this advantage the greater....

Only my 2 pennies. Palatine, IL?

[LuisYoGoLo]

66950
Palatine, IL? yessir

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
yessir We're almost neighbors! Send me.

[PKNYBE]

I'm right down the Road as well at Arlington Heights IL. We should do a fx factory beer. Next to it there are some broads at Durty Nellies in Palatine or another pub right on the night cant recall the title.

[pixatintes]

66950i find this Intriguing the dealers have 80-20 euro short
while instituions and Many Others Possess 70-30 euro longs
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/financial_lof.htm

im wondering,is it possible for cme futures dealers to ch Ceases in london,
I was Studying the Markets and Trading Publication and they say that some contracts can only be traded in 1 marketplace,on wikipedia it States nyse and euro exchnages have United their exchnages and Transaction electronically with Every other
Is There an Opportunity that cme shorts can effect the price traded in london
becuase right now it Seems like to me that dealers are on a stophunting Excursion
ching longs in london open

[Javilizaur]

66950The EU and GU have been sells for the last couple of weeks based on COT data. GU could go to 1.58 and EU to 1.33. I have been short since 1.6110 and 1.3610 https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317029.png

[mltt]

66950 Here is some food for thought:

http://www.atrader.com/files/upl/pdf/nid/A-Comparison-of-Two-Hedge-Fund-Strategies.pdf

So which one is your order flow egory?
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317036505010401.pdf

[audio]

66950Hey men, sorry I have not replied in a while but have been busy. Anyway I hope your weekend has been great and that I was really pleased to see that there was a discussion here in the last few pages.

I'm nearly finished with TE and that I do not know what I should move on to next, hopefully you guys have any ideas on what I should concentrate on next.
As you understand the order flow mindset has played a big part in my change that the last week or so i.e. I've been thinking about it allot and with grkfx's answers about mispricing a sparkle struck me.
What (I presume. .) I want to do is this:

Since mispricing is one of those order flow generators (or the one for order flow traders) I want to specify what mispricing is for me, and see if I can capitalize on that thought I have.
I must move on to specify what a mispricing is https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317029.png

Now you guys know what I am up to next (as if that matters https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317029.png), and that said, all ideas and opinions are welcome.

Take care guys.

[juangjb]

66950Hey Carnegie,

This articles by EmeraldEyes and caught my attention . Apparently according to them everything we will need to know is already here https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317029.pnghttps://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317029.png

Any who, I had been studying Beat The Forex Dealer this weekend, and one thing that really stood out to me'again' was the stop running that traders engage in. I find myself looking at the charts and asking where and in what direction possess the winners entered, where would be their stops, will traders run those stops, and also how do I make the most if they perform.

So after TE possibly devote a day or two at the markets trying to find the winners? As others have said, taking in too much information at one time may result in data paralysis.

Only my two cents.

[audio]

66950
I'd recommend you focus next on price discovery, both as a theory and the real mechanics within an interdealer market. Hey eurotrash,

Thank you for the advise! Where would you state I can find the best info about price discovery? I recall reading some about it in TE but it was just a bit. . Nothing important or very illuminating really.


JimmyJ:

Hey guy,

You have to put everything in context. Maybe hilmy and emerald have set serious amounts of analyzing and thinking down they've discovered the answers to their questions here in the thread.
It is really all about the travel (without sounding overly philosophical) so don't rush and never mind what others say. We are all happy for them, if they've discovered the answers!

Be careful

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Gentleman, I Am right down the Road Too in Arlington Heights IL. We should do a fx mill beer. On the night there are a few broads at Durty Nellies in Palatine or some bar alongside it cant remember the title. Should you and Hilmy83 are up to it, then so am I. But my spouse won't approve of the sexy broads part of the plan -- lol.

[LuisYoGoLo]

66950
If you and Hilmy83 are up for this, then so am I. However, my wife won't approve of the sexy broads part of the plan -- lol. I'm up for it. And like, I'm a family man. Plus I don't drink..that's a real kicker eh. But I'm always up to meet up with fellow traders

[layunny]

66950(Infection )

[LuisYoGoLo]

66950 Orderflow is useful for exits than entrance for me. The majority of the time my entries are off, but orderflow help me determine in which price'valueing' will take place. Taht helps me determine if my entrance gives a wothy risk:benefit.

Now's commerce:

my entrance is not the most perfect. But I'm really happy with my exit even though price continued on. You may see my tp is just one of the worth area-you can tell by the tight range activity after I tp shorts eventually admit they are fckeed. Following the trades completed exchanging hands, bulls have power, but this is really where late bulls come in and take a piece of the pie, when men are out? . .that's my assumption.
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293170391088278775.png

[Grif]

66950
Hey guys, sorry I have Not Responded in a while but... you can read a thousand books more, its Exactly the same as hopping from system to system, the Hunt for the holy grail, that doesn't exist, There Is Absolutely No secret, no magic curtain, once revealed trading becomes Simple, neither should be or is trading boring, if it is Not interesting you Aren't focused, if You Aren't focused you Donate money to Ms Requires

you need to learn to read the market Just like a Novel, read it in its context, Locate behavioural pattern (or Even Better clusters of it) and how to make money from it

no Alternative barriers through ifr, no market structure or orderflow Publication, no Platform (with an edge), no Ribbon or person can give it to you, you have to fight the dragon yourself to Find out how to kill him

[Javilizaur]

66950
you can read a Million books Longer, its the same as Leaping from system to system, the Hunt for the holy grail, Which does Not exist, there Is Not Any secret, no magic curtain, after Shown trading becomes Simple, neither should be is trading boring, if it is Not interesting you are not Concentrated, if you are not Concentrated you Donate money to Ms Requires

you need to learn to read the market like a Novel, read it in Its Own context, find behavioural pattern (or better clusters of it) and how to make money out of it

no Alternative barriers through ifr, no market Arrangement...
That post is so full of contradictions its a waste of space

[Raul123trader]

66950
you can read a thousand books longer, its exactly the exact same as leaping from system to system, the hunt for the holy grail, that does not exist, there's not any secret, no magic curtain, once revealed trading gets simple, neither must be is trading dull, if it isn't interesting you aren't concentrated, if you're not concentrated you give money to Ms Takes

you need to learn to browse the market just like a book, read it in its context, find behavioural pattern (or better clusters of it) and how to earn money from it

no option barriers through ifr, no market structure... He knows that.
.

[rayooxiden]

66950
now's trade: Glad somebody caught that. I was. In the 2nd to the tiny downspike. https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317031.png

[LuisYoGoLo]

66950
you can read a thousand books more, its exactly the same as leaping from system to system, the hunt for the holy grail, which doesn't exist, there is no secret, no magic curtain, once shown trading becomes simple, neither should be or is trading boring, if it is not interesting you are not concentrated, if you are not concentrated you donate money to Ms Requires

you want to learn how to browse the market just like a novel, read it in its context, locate behavioural pattern (or even better clusters of it) and how to earn money from it

no option barriers through ifr, no market arrangement... I hate it when people say trading is about'figting with your inner self'.wtf. .
I attribute mark douglas for dispersing this zen bullshit...

[layunny]

66950
That post is so Filled with contradictions its a waste of space I disagree, name 1

[Javilizaur]

66950
I disagree, name 1
Really, if I have to point out them, you are not as bright as you think you're.

[Grif]

66950
I hate it when people state trading is all about'figting with your internal self'.wtf. .
I attribute indicate douglas for dispersing this zen bullshit... didn't mean battling with yourself, this one wasn't about plogy https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317031.png

[layunny]

66950
Really, if I have to point them out, you're not as smart as you think you are. OK https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317031.png

[jhande]

66950
Depends what you mean by info. If your asking is it achieved with of the large banks and brokers providing you their orderbooks... the response is definitly yes. Can it be achieved without knowing where traders have their orders? No... thats the whole point of the methodology.

How you go about getting it's the question you want to work on. There's an answer; you just need to give it a thought. How can I go about obtaining the order flow data. Would you recommend a source. Can you use order flow for trading excusively or do you also use fundamental or technical analysis to support your trading. Thanks.

[audio]

66950
you can read a thousand books longer, its exactly the same as hopping from system to system, the hunt for the holy grail, which doesn't exist, there's no secret, no magic curtain, after revealed trading gets simple, neither must be or is trading dull, if it isn't interesting you aren't focused, if you're not focused you donate money to Ms Takes

you need to learn how to read the market like a book, read it in its own context, locate behavioural pattern (or better clusters of it) and how to earn money out of it

no alternative barriers through ifr, no market structure... I find it extremely interesting when folks dive into a dialogue without understanding the context.
IF you had read the whole thread, you would have understood since it's extremely clear - I am not here in order to get another system, or see the following book. Even if you read the ONE SINGLE POST above the one that you quoted, I clearly said I need to define TO MYSELF exactly what inefficiency etc. . Isn't that to attempt to fight with the dragon?

Nasir is right here, I know I have to do the job in my own, and that's exactly what I am likely to do, I am of the notion that even if Darkstar gave me his trading platform I'd fuck it up cuz I haven't got one clue on what foundation it's. I see trading systems as based on knowledge, so I have to gain the knowledge with just a bit of assistance from others and in my own for myself.

While you're stating that I think I will be profitable with studying another book, I disagree with you 100%. In my mind, the more books I read about economics, macroeconomics and market microstructure the longer I understand. If I wouldn't read the books. . What if I do? Reinvent them? No need. . There's a meaning behind not necessary to reinvent the wheel, wouldn't you agree?

I must agree to a certain point on you, I don't believe the simple fact that after I read X amounts of books trading will become simple, thats completely true. However, I disagree on another way, it's the simple fact that this bullshit you read on these open forums all the time isn't helping anyone.

You have to learn how to read the market like a book
What is with that bullshit actually? In all this forum individuals keep tossing read the market, understand her, understand yourself. . THAT DOESN'T HELP. Staring blindly in a chart to understand her doesn't help you a little if you don't realize what you're searching for.

I must say I may have come off as impolite but that's by no way I am happy you could contribute. I do feel offended as I'm looking for the response by myself. I can tell you now you dont have a clue in my effort and I am, by no means, attempting to become spoon-fed here. Darkstar, grkfx understands this, and even if you don't - .
I've read your articles and with respect I am really not interested in two 3 timeframes nor single candlestick patterns.

Take care and happy pipping. I will say this I hope I didn't come forward as aggressive or anything because that was not my intention. Here is the only thread in this forum about something else staring in a chart and I don't want folks to fuck this up. Please if you would like to keep posting do this regarding order flow, or even we could begin another thread.

[Grif]

98038
I find it extremely interesting when people dive into a dialogue without understanding the context.
IF you'd read the entire thread, you would have understood since it's very obvious - I am not here to find another system, or read another book. Even if you browse the ONE SINGLE POST over the one that you quoted, I clearly said I need to define TO MYSELF what inefficiency etc. is. Isn't that to attempt to fight with the dragon?

Nasir is right here, I already know that I have to do the job in my own, and that's precisely what I.. . Sorry that I came off rude, it wasn't a believer on you

learning economics or microstructure might be intriguing, but how does this help you trading? The ability is in realizing whats happening about the chart (sorry) as the activity unfolds, that is what I call read the market like a publication
not by staring blindly at the chart, but by analyzing and reviewing of what's occurring, how price is responding where and when and how long a transfer will likely be supported by whom and why.

[audio]

66950
sorry that I came off rude, it was not a believer on you

learning economics or microstructure may be interesting, but how does it help you trading? The skill is in recognizing whats happening about the chart (sorry) as the activity unfolds, that's what I call read the market like a publication
not by staring blindly at the chart, but by analyzing and reviewing of what's happening, how price is responding where and when and how long a transfer will be encouraged by whom and why. Truth is that I do have an answer to that - economics and microstructue WILL assist you in trading, and WILL assist you in recognizing whats happening in the chart as the activity unfolds, but I am interested in talking it on the thread, because it is just another discussion.
If you want to, we could talk per PM. This discussion will evolve into difference between FA and TA and other shit I have chosen my manner, and should I fail or not we will see. Then we will both know you are right, When I do and that I might need to apologise, until I've chosen my path and going to walk that travel until I realize that it might or might not operate.

Take care and happy trading partner.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
I am up for it. And like, I am a family man. Plus I don't drink..that's a real kicker eh. But I am always up to meet up with fellow traders Perhaps we could continue this through PM. I am sure there is.

[PKNYBE]

66950
Perhaps we could continue this via PM. I am convinced there is. Last time that I clog the ribbon with chit chat. Sorry. Its humorous were family men. I have a 3 year old son and my spouse will have a woman this week or next. Beer coffee or whatever is fine. And for the record I like to check at girls that are beautiful no womanizing for me. Cheers expect all nicely today price in eurusd traded in a expected manner that's always nice when your day is made more easy.

[Grif]

66950
Truth is I do have a response to this - economics and microstructue WILL help you in trading, and WILL help you in realizing whats going on in the chart as the activity unfolds, but I am not interested in talking it on the thread, since it's just another discussion.
If you want to, we could talk per PM. This discussion will evolve into difference between TA and FA and other shit that I have already chosen my way, and if I fail or maybe we shall see. When I do, then we shall both know You're right and I Will Need to apologise,... you do not need to research engineering to learn how to drive a car, but whatever

if that's your way I have to respect that, commerce well

[juangjb]

66950
however by analyzing and reviewing of what is happening, how price is reacting where and when and how long a transfer will be supported by whom and why. How is one supposed to comprehend exactly how, why and by whom price is reacting if they don't know the players and the way in which they need to execute based on the market structure?

Your post appears to have contradicting elements in it.

Not getting onto you, just really interested in how you understand who is doing what and why without analyzing...

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950Hi Carnegie,
Thanks for starting this thread. I have enjoyed reading along as it unfolds. My perspective of and experience with order flow is different from what others have developed or are developing. It appears to me that what ever is being developed here, either as a group or individually, will have little meaning unless it can be described on a forex chart. Would you be opposed to somebody taking the direct and submitting a chart with order flow analysis comments? I am not offering my services, and rather recommend you take the guide, to post something which frames the discussion or the questions. Please don't hesitate to let me go to hell, as I will not be offended. I have spent 7 years analyzing and trading charts, so for me personally any meaningful discussion has to involve a chart at some point.

[Grif]

66950
What's one supposed to comprehend how, why and by whom price is reacting if they do not understand the players and how they have to do depending on the market structure? By taking a guess

you will find buyers sellers with different time horizons

you will find support and resistance areas where market imbalances occured, large market orders were processed, price was supported and stops by different participants were set

you will find prefered entry points by larger, more slender or more individual participants and points in which dumb, impatient, panicking or covetous traders will enter/exit

you will find occasions, predictable inconsistent that may influence trading decisions or demand immediacy by different participants

this all along with a lot longer in conjunction will generate orders

as price progresses participants will accommodate their orders, new participants will enter, old will depart new conclusions will be produced

when you enter a transaction you Need someone paying you at a greater price than you bought, so you want traders to carry your standing onwards and price goals where you understand are traders left willing to take over your standing...

so, by taking a suspect who, when, where and why these participants will make decisions you trade

[juangjb]

66950
by carrying a guess

you will find buyers vendors with different time horizons

you will find support and resistance areas where market imbalances occured, large market orders were processed, price was encouraged and ceases by different participants were put

you will find prefered entrance points by bigger, smarter or more patient participants and points where idiotic, impatient, panicking or greedy traders could enter/exit

you will find events, predictable unpredictable that may influence trading decisions or need immediacy by different participants

that... So you're saying you're born with that knowledge you posted! AMAZING!

I child, but you seem to be off your rocker spouse. All that stuff you listed is a consequence of your studying to try and understand what's going on, whom is doing it and why it's currently going on! That!

BTW I'm just kidding around with you, not wanting to offend. Peace.

[Grif]

66950
So you are saying you were born with all that knowledge you just posted! AMAZING!

I child, but you seem to be off your rocker spouse. All that stuff you listed is a consequence of your studying to attempt to comprehend what is going on, whom is doing it and why it's currently going on! That!

BTW I am just kidding around with you, not wanting to offend. Peace. No offence taken, just saying I am guessing, the market tells me if I am right or wrong

grkfx stated it better though: you have to invent trading ideas

edit: loloff the rocker, I had to look that up

Only imagine the kind of person you'd expect to find on a rocker. An elderly person, the stodgy old grandma or grandpa most every household has in residence (the expression dates from 1897, before nursing homes were so okay ). The majority of the time they rock and sit, hands folded, muttering quietly. But every now and then a sudden agitation overcomes old Uncle Nancy, he cavorts around the home and jumps up. Or runs off on-- out of uniform to speak, like Hyacinth Bucket daddy.

I consider that as a compliment https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317015.png

[juangjb]

66950
I consider that as a compliment https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317015.png https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317015.png

I am just saying, instead of imagining what the arrangement of the FX market is, why not so bad to actually attempt to learn about it? Maybe my conclusions will be helped by it, perhaps it won't, until I have an understanding, but I won't understand either.

[Fer1188]

66950Hey Carnegie,

I also agree with eurotrash, about learning about price discovery and the mechanisms of how price goes, but wished to ask as to whether you answered a few questions that Darkstar recently posed a few weeks back:

[/quote]Before you can address the game you want to specify the situation. Who are the participants? What are their objectives? What egies are they employing? Just how much of the information set that is global do they have access to? [/quote]

These should definitely be the source of your next attempts if you haven't already found the answers to these questions.

Participants-wise I've grouped them into a few primary egories, in order of increasing influence on the foreign exchange market. I have also (and that I really don't know whether I am erroneous in doing this ) that the higher up the player is at the following hierachy, the more access they have to the global information set. It might make sense to align with the participants :Central Banks Governments Major Commercial Banks (your UBS, Deutsche Bank and Citigroup) Smaller Commercial Banks Hedge Funds Corporations/Companies and other Utilitarian Traders Retail Forex/Retail Forex Brokers Let us analyze such as corporations/companies.

We all know that their principal business objective is to create a profit for their investors. In the event where they conduct business across national boundaries, they'll be exposing themselves to currency-exchange risk, in which by they could lose profits because of fluctuations in the underlying exchange rates. They need to curb such losses, and must consequently find egies to do.

A number of these egies incorporate using derivatives, such as futures, forward or options to hedge against uncertainties in currency fluctuations. By recognizing the inherent need these participants have to use such derivative contracts, and imagining their position in the data and influence hierachy, particularly relative to the underwriters of such derivatives, we observe that they'll be at a distinct disadvantage, inspiring their underwriters to exploit them. Then I surmise that it needs to be possible to create positive expectancy strategies based upon situations in which weaker participants are being manipulated if we throw our knowledge of market microstructure and liquidity dynamics into the mix.

Like Gaston composed, it's about asking the right questions, and that I believe you can't receive any more appropriate than those Darkstar has asked people. Find out what these participants have as objectives, and how they go about achieving in the process, and in it, think of how it affects the foreign exchange market. Hint: Central Banks have a mandate to work out monetary policy - think of how they go about doing so.

Grkfx, Darkstar, Gaston, UnamedPlayer, eurotrash, Monroe, Marv - thank you for invoking producing believing within my mind!

And also to Carnegie, kudos for its quality discussion!

PS.
@X,

I recall recently there was a trade you took in which you believed that two currency pairs - that I believe GBP/USD and EUR/USD were not moving'proportionately' and as a result you took a trade based on gut instinct, that turned out very nicely.

I had the belief that divergences in correlated currencies (such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD), as you saw in that trade, can also be a potential order flow generator, but I cannot think of a reason ! The trade stunned me since I know of a single profitable trader whose bread and butter is trading such divergences, but that I only attributed it to probability, until recently, where my comprehension now indies that maybe; just perhaps - there might be an underlying reason behind the observed response post-divergence. The only likely reason I could think about, is a transfer by participants to mitigate risk in their portfolios, when they observe markets to be acting.

Any suggestions?

Regards,

[juangjb]

66950Thanks for that post Trizzle.

[audio]

66950
Hello,
Thank you for starting this thread. I've enjoyed reading and it evolves. My view of and expertise with order flow is different from what others here have developed or are developing. It appears that what ever is being developed here, either as a group or individually, will have little meaning unless it can be described on a forex chart. Would you be opposed taking the direct and posting a chart with order flow analysis comments? I am not offering my services, and rather advise that you take the... Hey,

Should you feel that it would contribute something to the thread though it does not have much with how we're looking at order flow then you are advised to do so. But keep it clean and no 5 charts a day .
And btw, I wouldn't ever tell anybody to go to hell https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317015.png

Trizzle:
Without saying too much, I will tell you that I discovered your remark funny. You know why? Because you chose the EXACT player did the other day. PS. Darkstar has a fantastic post (older ) that discusses this.

Take good care and good luck guys

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Hey,

Should you believe it might contribute something to the thread although it doesn't have much with the way we're taking a look at order flow then you are advised to do so. But keep it clean and no 5 charts a day posting .
And btw, I would never tell anyone to go to hell https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529317016.png Hi Carnegie,
I believe it is best that I pass on posting anything, and rather I will check in from time-to-time to watch what is developing here. I have been reading some of this substance that Gaston and DS have submitted. I would recommend a read through the Technical Analysis Falicy thread for's substance on market arrangement, too, if anyone has time ( ran a tier one currency surgeries in Sinapore but is not around much today due to health reasons). Good luck everyone and decent trading (been good today up to now!) .

[audio]

66950Sitting in school and wanting to do anything but my uni assignment I started to think about order flow. I started remembering one thing which Unnamed mentioned and the other things that Cindy talked about.

Remember unnamed said think about international money/liquidity shift?
Subsequently cindy said something about GBP remaining flat as other currencies wasnt. . So that made me think about a matter of mine, isn't this worldwide money shifted in and outside IN all the CURRENCIES rather than merely one of these?

Like if I buy Apple then price moved up since I bought the stock but buying EURUSD wouldn't the impliion of the be that I bought EUROs therefore the EURCHF, EURJPY and other EUR markets should proceed due to my order. Isn't it so?

IF it had been so, I came to another conclusion, and that's an interesting one. The fact that there is risk aversion would influence the rest of the currencies, as they are all tied together; the effect is on all of them. Therefore if I shorted one currency against the other, it isn't an impact on THAT particular currency pair, but in most others that I shorted in. . Is this right or is this dumb as hell?

Thank you and take care

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Like if I buy Apple then price moved up since I purchased the stock but buying EURUSD wouldn't the impliion of that be that I purchased EUROs therefore the EURCHF, EURJPY and other EUR markets should proceed because of my order. Why isn't it so? You're correct assuming when you buy the euro, using the E/J as an example, the yen is not moving down. If the euro is rising and the yen is holding steady or rising, the E/J should move up with the euro. There are, of course, no exceptions to this.

[JaviNota]

66950Carnegie,

Glad you discovered that roughly all of the currency pairs being the same. Think of how you could capitalize on this information .

I'll provide you a hint, if one correlated pair goes first before the other then we can expect what the other pair may do!

Or if the Dollar makes new highs along with the EUR/USD hasn't traded yet then it might need to ch up!

Hope this gives you some thoughts.

James.

[Raul123trader]

66950
showthread.php?p=4401964#post4401964 Disliked Hey Carnegie,

I also concur with eurotrash, about learning about price discovery and the mechanisms of how price moves, but wished to ask as to whether you answered a couple of questions which Darkstar recently posed a few weeks back:

Before you're able to solve the game you need to specify the situation. Who will be the participants? What are their objectives? What egies are they employing? Much of the information set that is worldwide do they have access to? Ignored These must definitely be the source of your attempts in case you have not already found the answers.

Participants-wise I have grouped them into a few main egories, in order of increasing influence in the foreign exchange market. I've also (and I don't know whether I am erroneous in doing so) that the higher the player is in the following hierachy, the more access they have to the worldwide information set. It would make sense to align with the participants as follows:Central Banks Governments Major Commercial Banks (your UBS, Deutsche Bank and Citigroup) Smaller Commercial Banks Hedge Funds Corporations/Companies and other Utilitarian Traders Retail Forex/Retail Forex Brokers Let us analyze such as corporations/companies.

We know that their principal business goal is to produce a profit to their investors. In case where they conduct business across national boundaries, they'll be exposing themselves into currency-exchange risk, in which they may lose profits because of changes in the underlying exchange rates. They desire to curb these losses, and must find egies to do.

Some of those egies include using derivatives, such as futures, forwards or options to hedge against uncertainties in currency changes. By recognizing the inherent need these participants have to exercise such derivative contracts, and noting that their position in the data and affect hierachy, especially relative to the underwriters of these derivatives, we detect that they'll be at a distinct disadvantage, motivating their underwriters to exploit them. I surmise that it should be possible to make positive expectancy strategies based upon scenarios in which participants are being exploited when we throw our understanding of market microstructure and liquidity dynamics.

Like Gaston wrote, it's all about asking the right questions, and I think you can't get any more appropriate than those Darkstar has asked of us. Learn the way they go about achieving inside, and in the process, and what those participants have as objectives, think of how it affects the foreign exchange market. Hint: Central Banks have a mandate to exercise monetary policy - think of the way they go about doing this.

Grkfx, Darkstar, Gaston, UnamedPlayer, eurotrash, Monroe, Marv - thank you for invoking producing thinking within my mind!

And to Carnegie, kudos for its quality discussion!

PS.
@X,

I recall recently there was a trade you chose in which you believed that two currency pairs - I think GBP/USD and EUR/USD weren't moving'proportionately' and as a result you chose a commerce based on gut instinct, which turned out quite nicely.

I had the belief that divergences in related currencies (for instance, EUR/USD and GBP/USD), because you noticed in that commerce, can also be a potential order flow generator, but I cannot think of a reason why! The commerce stunned me since I know of one profitable trader whose bread and butter is trading these divergences, but I only attributed it to probability, until lately, where my comprehension now indies that maybe; just perhaps - there might be an underlying reason for the observed response post-divergence. The reason is a move by participants to mitigate risk in their portfolios, when they observe affiliated markets to be behaving.

Any proposals?

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx [/quote][/quote]

this is some thing un folks may find interesting and in the very first post you will find summaries of his posts independently.

https://www.cliqforex.com/general-forex-discussion/802-wetalktrade-serve-making-better-trades.html

.

[Raul123trader]

66950
Carnegie,

Glad you noticed that roughly all of the currency pairs being exactly the same. Now think about how this information could be capitalized on by you alone.

I'll give you a clue, if one correlated pair goes first before the other then we could expect what the other pair may do!

Or if the Dollar makes new highs and the EUR/USD hasn't traded yet then it may have to ch up!

Hope this gives you some ideas.

James. Well I trade these correlations daily and its not that much easy.


I'll give you a clue, if one correlated pair goes first before the other then we could expect what the other pair may do!
Other pair may chup,.... Or as soon as the first one stops moving up the lagged one can begin falling like a stone.


Or if the Dollar makes new highs and the EUR/USD hasn't traded lower yet then it may have to ch up!
Again it could also mean that there has to be some thing wrong* with EurUsd and its just waiting for Dollar to prevent and than proceed to the upside.


*we will always find that out on Bloomberg etc than we are several 100 pips late, But imagine if some folks know about it before hand and they might be causing that Divergence on our own charts by loading up.

For an illustration open up the 4H charts of GbpUsd and EurUsd and see what happened between 18-JAN into 25-JAN. It was the Rating downgrade on 25-JAN if I remember correctly. 230 pips not ehh?

I visit these kinda Divg's 4-6 times each week but knowing the result isn't so much easy or simple every time and this is what I am working on those days


.

[JaviNota]

108183Nasir,

Thanks for the points above. I realise these events do not occur that often but I'm sure when we took enough time studying the events which are causung those inefficiencies then it might be possible to make them a bit more likely than hit or miss.

Additionally, I must give credit as these ideas were given to me by Unamed-playr.

At the moment I'm busy considering how value places tend to modify amongst correlated pairs that can sometimes predict a move but more about that later.

James.

[audio]

66950Hey men,

Sitting on OANDA 5 min and IFR actually make you confused, I think at some point I need to learn how to split decent news (those who influence the market) and bad news (people who are priced in and don't influence ).

Now what I had been asking for is your question about alternative play/hunting.
What is with all of these various alternatives?

I read a little bit about barrier choices and it seems as if the price goes above the price of the option, it is a reduction for the one who purchased it.

Let us say there's a barrier option round EURUSD 1.35. If the price moves over it only such as it won't be helpful to the one who purchased it correctly? But why can the market care of it? Why is it in the participants' interest if the option matures or not?
It's not like you can use it to ditch your stock inside right? Because makes some sense, you ditch the stock in the buy/sell stops there but I actually can't understand the significance with entering the zone of barrier alternatives and/or vanillas or whatever option it is.

this query actually goes deeper although I really, really don't have any time due to really much to do in college, and in all honesty I am actually thinking about quitting uni and getting a job rather, it's taking too much time sitting with the dumb assignments while I could do other things that would benefit me more!!

Take care

[Fer1188]

66950Hey Carnegie,

I am currently looking for ways to divert myself from my Maths assignment, also let's just say you have provided an means to an end. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316997.png

the majority of the options that are quoted on IFR are european style options. This means that they expire at a particular time interval. With a little bit of digging around here, you can actually locate the time of all the options.

So envision things together with your order flow mentality. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316997.png

Options will mean different things to different people. For the like and hedge funds, it'll be a car; for corporations it will be utilised to cancel foreign exchange risk. For the underwriters of the options, such as commercial banks, (who are higher up in the sway and data chain) in the event the option expires in the cash, they will eliminate money, having to pay it to the options holders who will exercise the option to their benefit. If the option expires worthless, the options underwriters will make money in the kind of commissions/options premiums etc..

Now when the position of the option barrier/strike price is divulged, think of who this could benefit the most. We know that the holders of this option is going to want to keep their option above/below the target price as essential, while it'll be advantageous to the options underwriters to induce price through and beyond.

Think of the different impliions this has, as well as the manners in which you can go about exploiting this, notably by equipping yourself with all the more probable result.

Regards,

[Raul123trader]

66950
Hey men,

Sitting on OANDA 5 minutes and IFR really make you confused, I believe at some point I must learn how to split decent news (those who affect the market) and bad news (those who are priced in and don't affect).

Now what I was asking for is the question about alternative play/hunting.
What's with all of these various choices?

I read just a little bit about barrier choices and it seems as if the price moves above the price of the option, it's a reduction for the one who purchased it.

Let's say there's a barrier option around EURUSD 1.35.... From what I believe is that for an exmpl, u are trading near 1.3450 and have a barrier in 1.3500 so there could be sell orders around 1.3490 and compared to people who put these orders also set Stops for all these orders @ 1.3520.

So first u push those Sell order's and break through the barrier than u can liquidate on that point ceases.
.

[audio]

66950
Hey,

I'm currently looking for ways to distract myself from my Maths mission, and well let's just say you have provided an means to an end. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316998.png

the majority of the options which are quoted on IFR are european style options. This means that they expire at a certain time period. With a little bit of digging around here, you can really find the precise period of expiry of the options.

So imagine things with your order flow mentality. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316998.png

Options will mean unique things to different people. For... Hmm. . So the corporations aren't losing, since they aren't in the sport for profit but for reasons. The only one bearing a risk here's the bank.

It had been apparent to me from the start that SOMEONE want's to break the option by driving price . But this was my thinking:

why be the underwriter if you still must cover breaking the option? That might sound a little wierd but here is my thinking:
Let us say a bank is the underwriter to a company of a substitute exercising at 1.3500.
If price remains below 1.35; the bank must swap $100 mil GBP for USD.
If price gets above 1.35; corporation falls and the bank gets the premium.
Now figure price is currently at 1.33. Is not there a price for the bank to drive price up 200 pips just to knock the option ? Yes I know that $100 mil was a terrible example and it ought to be a couple of yards atleast but that is not my purpose.

Take care

EDIT/
My order flow mentality is telling me the BIAS on the special currency and game concept has something to do with which hunting it's on each particular option. .
Must consider this one, perhaps I need to read up a bit on options.

EDIT 2/
I had been thinking about something. .


Now when the position of the option barrier/strike price is divulged, consider who this could benefit the most. We know that the holders of the option will want to keep their option above/below the target price as essential, while it will be advantageous to the options underwriters to drive price through and beyond it. To me the benefit is obvious. . Ten times out of ten would the bank hunt for the option but that would not be the case in real life. Also if we make the assumption that companies aren't in the match to get FX profit then how come we could sometimes see a protection of the option? That means there are participants in the options, sometimes insecure; involving two banks. . Hence the question needs to be, how do we know if it is between two banks (i.e. being a struggle ) or between a bank and a company (hunting the alternative )

[Pandegamba_]

66950Guys, vanilla choices (possibly european or american style) are rigorously pricing in the future expected VOLATILTY, maybe not PRICE. Read this. It doesn't matter what price the underlier will have in the long run, just it is going to be. In case the underlier is significantly more volatile than suggested from the market, the option buyer will triumph. When it's less volatile, the buyer will lose. Prospective PRICE isn't a factor in determining who wins.

This is due to a peculiarity in the option market structure. In general there are much more option buyers (long volatility) than sellers (short volatility), thus the banks (which usually selling volatility) are getting problems matching the short sides of choices - their short book is much larger than the lengthy book. To market themselves they do some thing called delta hedging. This hedges the PRICE away, and the VOLATILITY stays.

Note that you can not match puts and calls in precisely the same strike as many would believe. They are equivalent as a result of put-call parity, thus you can not offset one .

As I saidthis is just for vanilla options, but it is important to comprehend this notion, that choices are pricing in VOLATILITY.

For hurdles it is more complied.

[Fer1188]

66950My thinking is that the Bank who is the underwriter is not the person who will orchee. As the bank has divulged the data gamers may use it in order to speculate regarding the movements of their currency, and might help alyze the transfer to the stops that the Bank is not the mover in the exercise.

We must also think about the reasons of different participants - state you're a large institutional participant, and your current outlook for the currency pair is really a downtrend, which ought to continue according to a analysis of this fundamental climate.

Say that the choices barrier to be removed lies in a greater price than what is currently being offered now. The egy employed from these large institutional players, would be to build up positions in intervals, gradually scaling to the tendency, and consequently it would also be favorable for them to enter new positions as the dust settles down from these option plays, and the currency continues to move back in the downtrend. And of course that the liquidity would make entering close to the barrier profitable from a cost perspective, for the fact that the liquidity will permit the institutional participant to obtain a fantastic average fill, with very little market impact.

However, as you noted there are costs involved, which is why you do not see choices underwriters recklessly gunning for stops. It is inclined to be done when price occurs to end up close to the strike price close to the options expiry date. The transfer upward has been initiated at periods of low liquidity that it's cheaper to make jumps in price, in addition to lure technical/momentum/informed traders to jump on board. The amount of money at stake can be something to take note of - look at price gravitates towards a barrier when amounts such as 350Mio-500Mio are at stake.

It's not something that happens all the time, nor will we guess exactly who is battling - to as you mentioned previously, we're working with probabilities. Depending upon that situation a positive expectancy system can be built, and that's all you want to create bank.

Hope this helps,

[Fer1188]

66950
Guys, vanilla choices (possibly european or american style) are rigorously pricing later on expected VOLATILTY, not PRICE. Read that again. It doesn't matter what price the underlier will possess in the future, just it's going to be. In case the underlier is more volatile than suggested by the market, the option buyer will triumph. If it's less volatile, then the buyer will likely lose. Future PRICE isn't a element in determining who wins.

This is a result of a peculiarity in the option market arrangement. In general there are much more option buyers... This new information leads me to believe there are some gaps in my knowledge.

Are you ready to disclose additional details about the workings of alternatives? If not then I completely understand - no hard feelings. https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316998.png

Regards,

[Pandegamba_]

66950
This new information leads me to believe there are some gaps in my knowledge.

Are you ready to disclose additional details on the workings of alternatives? If not then I completely understand - no hard feelings. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316998.png

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx What I said are option basics. No key there https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316998.png As always, the key is in being one step ahead of the market.

I'm not a terrific teacher, so I searched for some explanations of what I said. Here's what I discovered. You can find better ones.

Http://www.eurekahedge.com/news/16_june_Davinci_Volatility_Trading.asp

In contrast to the comparative volatility disperse egy, in gamma trading egy, one is predominantly gambling the implicit volatility of an option does not agree with all the expected volatility as seen in an absolute point of view. Quite simply 8211; one stakes on the absolute reversal. If a person utilizes the gamma trading egy, the aim is a large profit if unexpected external shocks occur, eg elections, terrorist attacks and astrophes. On the other hand, Together with the brief gamma trading egy, one is gambling on more quiet waves, or even better still, no waves. In the case of both volatility egies, market direction plays a subordinate role, or sometimes, no position.

Wikipedia is also useful, as always:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_arbitrage

To an option trader engaging in volatility arbitrage, an option contract is a way to speculate in the volatility of the inherent instead of a directional bet on the underlier's price. If a trader buys choices as part of a delta-neutral portfolio, he's reportedly volatility. If choices are sold by him, he's said to be short volatility. As long as the trading is completed delta-neutral, buying an option is a bet that the future of the underlier realized while promoting an option is a bet that future realized volatility will likely be reduced volatility will be high. Because of put call parity, it isn't important whether the choices traded are calls or puts. This can be true because put-call parity posits a risk neutral equivalence connection between a call, a put and some amount of the underlier. Therefore, being long a delta neutral call results in exactly the very same yields as a delta neutral put.

There was a paper which explained really nice why choices are pricing largely volatility (because of the highly asymmetric market I discussed in the previous article ), but I can not locate it understand.

[Danihool]

66950
Hi Carnegie,
I think it is better that I pass on posting anything, and I will check from time-to-time to see what is developing here. I have been reading some of this substance which DS and Gaston have submitted. I would recommend a read through the Technical Analysis Falicy thread for's substance on market arrangement, also, if anybody has the time ( conducted a tier one currency surgeries in Sinapore but is not around much now because of health reasons). Good luck everyone and good trading (been good today up to now!) . Good guidance

to not take away from what is being discussed here, but a look on his thread for his articles with order flow, market structure, hitting, ducks will pull some good reads....

Here's a quote from him about order flow, and his mindset by a Tier 1.

https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-system-and-egies/1214-expanding-grid.html

[Anakin78]

66950It is not just currencies interact between each other to identify some sort of inefficient pattern.
Noticing what's happening in the futures and options market is very important.
In which of them may be made cash with little work and on which can be your focus.
The cash shing can be very divergent one of these to a particular point and you need to understand the reason is that and then how to exploit it.

[Fer1188]

98038
What I said are alternative principles. No key that there https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316998.png As always, the key is in being one step ahead of the market.

I am not a fantastic teacher, so I searched for some explanations of exactly what I said. Here's what I discovered. You are likely to find better ones.

Http://www.eurekahedge.com/news/16_june_Davinci_Volatility_Trading.asp

[I]Compared to the relative... Thank you for the info Adal,

I simply had a bit of confusion taking it as the said-same Wikipedia puts an importance on the inherent price of the alternative; ie. the spot-rate.

Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Option_style

In fund, the style or family of an alternative is a general term denoting the course into which the option falls, usually characterized by the dates on which the option could be exercised. The huge majority of options are European of American (fashion ) options. These options - as well as others in which the payoff is calculated equally - are referred to options. Alternatives where the payoff is figured are egorized as'exotic options'. Exotic options can pose challenging problems in evaluation and hedging.

The vital difference between Western and European alternatives relates to if the options can be solved:

A European option could be exercised only at the expiry date of the option, i.e. at one pre-defined point in time.

An American alternative on the other hand may be exercised at any time prior to the expiry date.

For the two, the pay-off - if it happens - is through:

Max [(S-K), 0], for a call option
Max [(K-S), 0], for a put option;

(Where K is the Strike Price and S is the spot price of the underlying asset)

Alternatives contracts traded on the futures exchanges are primarily American-style, whereas individuals traded over-the-counter are primarily European. (ie. Forex)

Maybe the discrepancy can be explained by the way we interpret alternatives to be used? Whereas my opinion is towards that of a more insecure role perhaps you are taking a look at options from a volatility standpoint?

Regards,

[Pandegamba_]

66950
Perhaps the discrepancy could be explained by the way we interpret options to be utilized? Whereas my opinion is towards that of a function that is speculative, you are taking a look at choices from a volatility arbitraging standpoint? Of course it's possible to use options for directional speculation. But the majority of the choices sellers are forced to delta hedge the choices utilizing the underlierthey engage in volatility arbitrage if they would prefer to not.

Anyhow, this is a bit off-topic with this order-flow thread. I only wanted to highlight that when you sell or buy an option, you do not necessarily need to guard the price, you may need to defend/attack the volatility instead. Think about this when you visit three times in a row at which EUR/USD stays put or rises or any time you see a sudden spike. I am not implying that someone manipulates the marketthat some choices players will make/lose a lot of money on the times or about the calm times.

[audio]

98038Yesterday I read there were a larger option at 0.9850 in USDCAD and if you have a look at the chart, there's been some effort to fight for this.

It eventually gave away, but in my mind, that must be some kind of inefficiency. Because if you say that banks seek the option to save their own ass, then price has moved down irregardless of value. If it moves down irregardless of value then the price is ineffective.
Therefore the price isn't efficient and the option hunt is over, my order flow mindset tells me that this could tempt traders to enter LONG.

I've a lengthy entrance at 0.9850 price currently 15 pips away. Let's see how that one works out, in my mind. . That is one kind of inefficiency although price dropped to attempt and split it but was transferred away. So hypothetically, price should move up to ~0.9950.
Likely wrong but just testing and learning.

Take good care, and btw all opinions are welcome.

PS. Another question the most significant one for me.
I don't know why you are talking about stops when we are talking about choices? Do you mean that there are stops the choices? And why would that be? If somebody was trying to defend their of option right that would just be the case. . In that situation there could be stops above/below. . And that really makes stop hunting ideas more easy to understand?

[edukrdoka]

98038
Yesterday I see that there were a larger choice at 0.9850 in USDCAD and if you have a look at the chart, there's been some effort to fight for it.

It eventually gave off, but in my head, that has to be some kind of inefficiency. Because if you state that banks seek the choice to save their ass price has transferred down ton of value. If it moves down irregardless of value the price is ineffective.
Thus the price isn't effective and now that the option hunt is over, my order flow mindset tells me that this could entice traders to...
Carnegie, this exactly what I have been attempting to talk about with respect to options. I'm only a n00b here, but basically what you typed is exactly what I've been trying out.

[Lilisanti]

98038Guys, I might be completely wrong here; but if you examine the chart for the downtrend could be an USD weakness. In that circumstance, the downtrend might not be an inefficiency. Only me 0.02.

Thanks.

[tanabas]

98038
Yesterday I read there were a bigger option at 0.9850 at USDCAD and if you have a look at the chart, there has been some effort to fight for it.

Now it eventually gave off, but in my mind, that has to be some kind of inefficiency. Because if you state that banks seek the option to save their ass, then price has transferred down ton of worth. If it moves down irregardless of worth the price is inefficient.
Therefore the price is not efficient and the alternative hunt is over, my order flow mentality informs me that this could entice traders... Why buy at 0.9850, once you are able to wait for the level to be busted and buy at 0.9840 / 0.9830?

What makes you think there are aggressive buyers to select the price up 100 pips? Sure price may have left a false breakout to 0.9820 and bounced, but does that automatically mean the the fundamental value is at 0.9950?

Also take note there is probably another alternative barrier at 0.9800. The folks hunting don't want price to spike 100 pips.

How do you know that the inefficiency you are describing has not yet taken any market moves have already happened?

Why hasn't the price transferred yet? What is the market currently waiting for? Where would be the order flow generators to maneuver price up? What is taking them so long?

The longer you hold such trades into the couple of hours to couple of days, you become vulnerable to the order flow from market sentiment. In case the opinion stays bearish or accelerates to the drawback your commerce is smoked.

[Juana.pkmixxar]

98038
PS. Another question the most significant one for me.
I don't understand why you're talking about stops if we are referring to choices? Do you mean that there are stops? And why would that be? If someone was trying to shield their of choice 16, that would be true. . In that situation there could be ceases above/below. . And that makes cease hunting ideas easier to comprehend; IF IT IS SO? If you know that there is a massive choice on the E/at 1.3650, which it expires tomorrow, you could place your stops a safe distance above 1.3650 because you know that the massive bank that composed the choice will shield that price level, which may make your discontinue safer, at least in your mind it is safer. Who can you argue, if someone very large is willing to defend your stop? However, after the choice expires, the premise is that there are lots of stops over 1.3650, or so the market may sweep them as a simple liquidity drama.

[edukrdoka]

98038
Why buy at 0.9850, once you can wait for the level to be broken and buy at 0.9840 / 0.9830?

What makes you think there are competitive buyers to take the price up 100 pips? Sure price could have left a false breakout to 0.9820 and bounced, but does that necessarily mean the the fundamental value is at 0.9950?

Also take note there is likely another alternative barrier in 0.9800. The people hunting do not want price to spike 100 pips.

How can you know that the inefficiency you are describing has not yet taken any market moves... Are you indicating using alternative barrier information is not a legitmate way to exchange, or that we must rethink the way in which we use that information in our trading?

[audio]

98038
Why buy at 0.9850, when you are able to wait for the amount to be busted and buy at 0.9840 / 0.9830?

What makes you believe there are aggressive buyers to take the price up 100 pips? Sure price could have left a false breakout to 0.9820 and bounced, but does that necessarily mean the the fundamental value is at 0.9950?

Also take note there's probably another alternative barrier in 0.9800. The people hunting most likely do not want price to spike 100 pips.

How do you know that the inefficiency you're describing has not already taken place and some other market moves... That's the shit I am considering. . How low does this hoe go?
No but seriously, I think about stop hunting occuring at around number but sometimes it goes as low as 60 if the obstacle was at around number 00. . That's 40 pips. How much down/up can the price move?
This might have to do with all the price , although I've read allot the alst hour out of darkstar that is giving me a few more thoughts...

You're 100% correct on the trade, where would be the order flow generators and also what's taking the moment? Obviously it was a trade don't know how I should change my thinking. . In my head that actually was an inefficiency https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316999.png

tyler: it obvioulsy is the manner. .

[Anakin78]

66950Option barriers are just 1 part to clean the books and also to cash in.

Again, the stop huntings only happen at the near same levels (and there are many more not only round numbers)
when there was before an imbalance between prices and particular participants.
The other choice is as soon as the market movers had attained a balanced inventory and have the nerve to shift the price to a new worth are.

[Fer1188]

66950Hey men,

Once more you are giving me an excuse to do something apart from my assignments, and for that I humbly thank you ! Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316984.pnghttps://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316984.pnghttps://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316984.png

If I might, I'd love to share some ideas on the thoughts transpiring:

I constantly looked at options from a speculative standpoint, as a means to possibly get a deal of market action during an identifiable space of time.

Typically, if I had an option at imaginary level A, and needed price to stay below it in order for me to be in the cash, as price gets nearer to my option, I would initiate short positions, for in so doing I would be consuming bids, and might consequently be shifting price down, given I had sufficient clout. However, I wouldn't be leaving these places open - they'd have attached stop-loss orders over the imaginary level A, that it makes no more sense to perform with this options defense match, and where I believe I've had too much. If price were to proceed to these amounts, then the implementation of my stops should cascade price movement up from level, until the value traders step in, and take advantage of the mispricing it'd create.

By positionning myself adequately, I would hope to take advantage of this inefficiency.

Grkfx gives lots of insightful commentary - if you are aware when an options barrier is broken, and stops are triggered, causing a level of movement past it, entering the choices level would bring us into unnecessary draw-down. I agree here entering safely after the dust begins to settle. . .how you go about discovering when the dust has settled is down to your own personal taste.


How do you know that the inefficiency you are describing has not yet taken any market moves have already happened?
That is also a very important factor in my view that was raised. What if the movement that we were expecting triumphed? Is there some action before the event which may hint that the participants who'd have wanted to shield the option might have been squeezed out? You noticed there was notable bouncing off the level early in the day, on Feb. 15th, but the action on Feb. 16th would suggest to me the curiosity to shield would have been exhausted by then.


Why has not the price moved up yet? What's the market waiting for? Where are the order flow generators to move price up? What's taking them so long?
When our expectancy is correct I would posit that the order flow generators could enter shortly after the transfer transpires - the simple fact they are taking so long might indie their priorities/motives may have changed.


The longer you hold such transactions into the couple of hours to couple of days, you become susceptible to this order flow from market sentiment. If the opinion stays bearish or accelerates to the drawback your trade is smoked.
Time is of the essence. Perhaps a trade management egy that gets risk off the desk in a timely manner can be used.

Just my humble opinions. Beautiful discussion guys!

Regards,

[tanabas]

66950
Are you suggesting using alternative barrier information isn't a legitmate way to trade, or that we will need to rethink the manner in which we use that information in our trading? It's possible to use alternative information to trade.

You may or may not have to rethink the manner in which you use the info.

Option action isn't the one thing which is happening. It's not the only thing that's generating order flow. The market is highly sensitive to alternative activity on a single day, yet on other times the order flow generated with alternative activity is quite minimal.

I don't know if the transaction Carnegie is in is likely to be successful or not, but when price isn't moving yet for your preferred loion, into the loion which you think price should proceed, it is possible to ask the question why isn't the market moving nonetheless? The transaction isn't moving up by now, and When his trade entry was because of some inefficiency of the alternative action , maybe there is something else generated order flow? Perhaps something is impacting price?

[audio]

66950GRKFX: You are 110% correct in the fact that it was a trade, atleast regarding MY definition of inefficiency, if it wasn't. . Where are all the orders?

Thank you very much.

[tanabas]

66950

In that sense, the only question for me is when I need to fade it or play the cascade. For a trader you have three choices, it is possible to fade it, play with the cascade, or even....

Staying out?

Remaining out before a much better, clearer inefficiency gifts itself is a really workable, affordable choice.

[Fer1188]

66950
Sorry UP, I really don't understand what you mean.

However, I believe I have solved (for me) something about the stop-hunting.
The intriguing thing is when someone is defending a option. . Then should they LOSE, most likely their stops are above or below the strike price. Because it wouldn't make any sense - lose - and have stops far from the strike price right?
Especially since the farther off their cease, the more money they're putting at stake - these large participants do not have the luxury of elastic posture sizing a-la Oanda that people lucky retailers have. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316985.png


So in that sense, the sole question for me is when I should fade it or play the cascade. Inside my head, let's say someone wants to dump allot to the alternative being thus hunted by the defenders stop.
Now let's say the defender doesn't put allot of money on the defending therefore that the stops are not large, so if the hunters liquidation is bigger than the outstanding stops, price will instantly snap back creating this fake breakout and maybe is the vacuum darkstar is talking about.

But, IF, the hunter is liquidating a pool bigger than the stops, price should...
So many different ways to perform it..this is the reason why there's no one set methodology when X crosses with Y then enter here TP here and SL here. . I believe this is the idea of an order flow mindset was what Darkstar and others tried to emphasize. I belive a interpretation of what is going on is quintessential.


Now the next question of mine is that there are different kinds of options; some where you have to simply poke price thru and some where you need to have price staying above/below the area right? There is another dilemma: knowing which kind of option it is. .
Yes there are different kinds of options, such as the ones you have explained, barrier options, DNT options, vanilla options, etc.. The type is actually indied.

[Pandegamba_]

66950A lot of talk . Time for something more tangible - real order flow trading and front-running: http://tr8dr.wordpress.com/2011/02/17/what-you-dont-know/

[edukrdoka]

66950
So in that sense, the only question for me is if I need to fade it or play with the cascade. That's the major question I have, too. And the best answer I've come up with is how it depends https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316985.png

[soxido]

66950Now? Does anybody know what TC stands for on the choices maturity calander? I have never been able to find what this means.

On the reverse side, anyone viewing the Euro today. 1.3600 is a pretty powerful level. Rumor of central bank activity there. Wonder if it has to do with the Portugal news of a coming bailout in April. Anyhow tighter than a drum is winding up. Can't wait to take place. https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316985.png

Cheers

[edukrdoka]

66950
Now return to my question from the other thread? Does anyone know what TC stands to get on the choices maturity calander? I have not been able to obtain what this means. I have been told that it means transferable contract. Not sure what significance, if any, it has for us, however.

[soxido]

66950
I have been told it means transferable contract. Unsure what importance, if any, it's for us, though. Thanks for the info.

[Anakin78]

66950
Sorry UP, I really don't see what you mean. I know that it's somewhat difficult to know when someone hasn't seen it before.
Please know that I won't elaborate it because that are usually the 3 main pillars in stop searching drives.

[agomwz.69]

66950
Choice barriers are just one part to clean the books and to cash in.

Again, the prevent huntings only happen in the near same levels (and there are many more not only round numbers)
when there was before an imbalance between prices and certain participants.
The other choice is when the market movers had attained a balanced stock and now have the nerve to shift the price to a new worth are. Think creatively and you find that on a chart.

[Nithel]

66950i have been hearin alot mindet for trading I like to learn what it is All about

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Last time I clog the thread using chit chat. Sorry. Its funny were family men. I have a three year-old son and my wife will have a girl this week or next. Beer, anyhow coffee or anything is fine. And for the record I like to look at women that are beautiful no for me personally. Cheers expect all traded nicely today price in eurusd traded in a manner that's always pleasant when your day is made simpler. Hey, we are trying to get together for coffee but you do not accept PM. Please send me a PM for details.

[pixatintes]

Carnegie that is 66950hey are u looking for something like this?

Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/mtvCrG9JFR0?origin=https://www.forum.com


this is very cool
theres always more liqidity at greater offers
simply explains why someone with more cash would push for all those

[pixatintes]

66950Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/d_kJDgv0R0k?origin=https://www.forum.com


5 grand for this particular technology,

I believe unless ur an algorithm theres no way to trade orderflow within this little timeframe,perhaps there's,havent tried it,so I dont know,but im guessing u have to have fast hands,have fat ones and die off,

possibly if u apply these approaches
https://www.cliqforex.com/bitcoin-cryptocurrencies-commodities-and-stocks/1275-mt4-trading-gap-excel.html

[dealbagarcay]

66950seems like we've run out of fuel, didn't we?

[layunny]

66950
seems like we have run out of fuel, did not we? Quite the opposite...

[Fer1188]

66950Lots of behind the scenes work going on!

[dealbagarcay]

98077Lol, that's what I was actually thinking, I did not want to destroy the athmosphere feeling xD
I'm reading TE to know market functionality, it'll take a while, then I will read these 2 fascinating threads. I guess it will be an eye-opener.

[jfr1954]

98077Care?
Thanks

[Fer1188]

98077I have been learning so much and I am so thankful that I began to view things in terms of orders beforehand, since it allowed me to think via an order-flow perspective.

I used to be a strictly Technical Trader before, and paid zero regard to Fundamental Analysis. With a little bit of study, I am beginning to learn how a general knowledge of Fundamental Anaylsis, can be used to interpret current driving themes, regarding an order flow perspective.

For example, I am sure that everybody is conscious of the tension in the Middle East, in addition to the probable impliions that it will have on oil production. Decreased production from these producers, are a hit into the globabl supply, and also in a world where the demand for oil is ever-increasing, will bring about rising prices.

Such tensions have a tendency to bring on a hint of risk aversion to the global climate. Investors will generally choose to move to safe-haven assets that are denominated. Here-in establishes our order flow generator.

The very common risk-averse currencies are USD, JPY and CHF. Thus I expected a movement of money from Euros into the USD, as I like trading the EUR/USD pair (don't we all? https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316968.png ). This pair has been rising rather than falling, which originally confused me!

Afterward I began to make the link between rising oil prices and realized that the U.S and Japan are a few of the worlds largest oil importers. For such significantly oil-based economies, I would posit that oil prices would negatively impact them, as the costs of will increase as well.

The Swiss Franc however, is much less exposed to oil-based risks as the prior two countries, and thus it might make sense to anticipate capital flows to CHF-denominated assets. I posit that this might be a significant contributing aspect to why USD/CHF is at record highs. In my analysis, provided that the pressure remains and oil prices increase further, we ought to be in a position to additional profit from downward motions in USD/CHF. And just how do I go about doing this? Zooming entering and down in regions where the intraday orderflow aligns with what I think are the prevailing orderflow direction.

I am not laying this down here, in an effort to forecast, or whatever the matter - don't get me wrong! I would love any additional insights or corrections to my analysis/anticipation.

I only found it amazing that I am now starting to place myself for trades using information that does not lie about the charts. I really don't know if this could come off as glaringly obvious for many, but the usage of Fundamental Factors as a possible order-flow generators, for me is a first, and I am thrilled. I remember a post by Darkstar highlighting the value of the rate of calculating possible order flow scenarios, and when I managed last week to create these links, I believe I would be sitting very handsomely!

Hope I did not give you my rave, but felt compelled to write this here, which serves as an electronic journal of my development as a speculator.

Regards,


EDIT: @ Tilt, he is referring to Trading Exchanges by Larry Harris. Wonderful literature on market (micro)structure.

[layunny]

98077
Care to share what exactly does TE means?
Thanks Hey Tilt

TE signifies trading and Exchanges its a novel by a guy called Larry Harris about market micro structure... very boring but I guess that an interesting look into market mechanics if you wanna place a positive spin on it. Some bits are fairly interesting but I have ta say, the guy talks like a robot 0's and 1 lol. But do not get me wrong it's a good one to have. Probably the very eduional in relation to markets that I own.

Some people will say this publication is a necessity for trading. I disagree. Its a necessity for order flow trading, this is for sure.

The books getting fairly old now though, I wish he'd make a new variant.

[layunny]

98077
I've been learning so much lately, and I am just so grateful that I started to view stuff concerning orders beforehand, because it allowed me to think of these topics via an order-flow perspective, during the process of studying.

I was a rigorously Technical Trader earlier, and paid absolutely no regard to Fundamental Analysis. However, with a little bit of study, I am beginning to learn how a understanding of Fundamental Anaylsis, can be used to translate current driving globabl themes, in terms of an order flow perspective.

To Get... Good stuff shizzle

[jfr1954]

98077
Hey

TE means Trading and Exchanges its a novel by a man called Larry Harris about market micro structure... quite dull but I guess that an interesting look into market mechanics should you wanna put a positive spin on it. Some pieces are fairly interesting but I gotta say, the man talks like a robot in 0's and 1 lol. But don't get me wrong it is a great one to own. Probably the very eduional in relation to markets that I own.

Some people will say this book is a prerequisite for trading. I disagree. Its a prerequisite for order... Oh that's what it is...I've this book.Yeah I gave up on it ,thought it was overly complicated for me...I am going to take a look back again. . .some day https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316974325955925.png
Steb by step as they say.
Thank you Cindy trizzle https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316974679684923.pnghttps://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293169751521217151.png

[tanabas]

98077Let me throw one of my ideas concerning order flow mindset, which I've ingrained within me.

Either you're placing trades that are impossible(or near impossible) to shed, or you're providing liquidity for the ones that do.

[pixatintes]

98077i feel that the oil prices are driven by opec coutries and large oil monopolies instead of the legitimate demand and supply of oil
they locate some turmoil in this world that has an impact on oil prices and increase the price of oil
and also oil speculators,simply jumping on the bandwagon when theres bad news in middle east
driving oil up
I recall a the quote out of orange juice traders in cme from the wall road warriors show
a pit trader stated that the traders in the pits speculators are determening the price of frozen concentrated orange juice,
so the audience pushes it up,.and they constantly go the same way when threres natural disasters,
moving away the offers,that are waiting for greater price'
to dump their holdings
people skills is very needed in this complexed trading environment
as speculators can impact the price


does anyoen have an idea how the price of oil annually moved from 50$ to 30$ in 1 day?

[barpklijo]

98077
Let me throw one of my thoughts regarding order flow mentality, which I have ingrained in my own.

Either you are placing trades that are hopeless (or near impossible) to lose, or you are providing liquidity for those that do. 500 pips SL and 5 pips TP. I do it all the time! https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316968.png

[tanabas]

98077
500 pips SL and 5 pips TP. I do it all the time! Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316968.png Thats not exactly what I meant... How about a minimum of 1:1 R:R.

[barpklijo]

98077
Thats not exactly what I intended... How about a minimum of 1:1 R:R. I know, just wanted to mislead the people. But seriously it is a really good idea to think in terms of (nearly ) impossibility of hitting your sl before placing a trade.

[tanabas]

98077Think in terms of how can you identify for placing a trade that is not possible to 21, surroundings and the conditions. Many of my trades are won, before they are placed.

Then ask yourself what are you doing now, to aid you ch the trades of the future that are impossible to shed.

What habits can you grow to help you always capture the trades of the future that are not possible to lose.

[Ibercarltt]

98077 I've followed this thread for while. I felt there's some confuse in the conception of order flow. I often heard a lot of fx gurus, specialist, professional, skilled traders and fx eduors spoke about order flow. If they open their mouthorder flow came out,.... However, when ask detail of order flow, then, they would give you a lot of excuse of order flow.

Fx market is quite famous market, which is composed of numerous players, all of them have their way to performance of the fx business. Know of the way of business processing will be better to comprehend and follow the market motion (price swing). You can find orders from all players. The orders are not transperant to other players. Some orders are business high,top,..., top secret. There is no means to discover what are orders and also how many are orders.

However, we can hear some news about large reduction when a participant made a blowout. French bank, UK bank, NAB case, etc..

1. Central Banks provide their currency, increase or reduce their money.
2. Big players offer fx support to corporation need.
3. Big players spend in fx in terms drivers, of factors.
4. Big players spend in fx in terms drivers, of variables.
5. Small players follow players to do exactly the proccess as 4, 3.
6. Market makers provide services through fx place and alternative, prospective platform.
7. Market makers do clearing market, evaporating market to keep their stock and their hands of stock flows.
8. Others, do exactly what procedure?

Big players and market makers are usually hedge their place whenever they enter the market in risk management. Therefore, we find price swing up following breakout a degree , then, swing down to before degree. Market dealers offer you lot, they'll buy one lot in someplace to hedge their stocks(currency), due to they can't print currency.

I like to present a conception of high level amount of large players, you might haven't discovered this vocabulary. Price is usually below or above a price . Market makers maintain the degree. Buy/sell are hedged at the degree. Market swing drivers often emerge out (fundy or tech), and driver force (or buy/sell orders/activities) drive price through the hedge level. Later, price often come back to hedge amount when market is silent, in order for market makers obtain their stock back. This is only one of market behaviour mode, I felt, I might be incorrect.

Watching this hedge amount, subsequently, you might understand who is dominating force in the market(who is winner), then, you follow the winner to go, cut your loss, chase winner's direction swing.

Sorry, I really don't know whether I can use a chart to illue my stage. Watch eur-usd daily.
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293169761132836868.png

[Rafalete68]

98077
I've followed this thread for some time. I felt there is some confuse in the conception of order flow. I often heard a lot of fx gurus, expert, professional, skilled traders and fx eduors talked about order flow. When they open their mouth, order flow came out,.... However, when ask detail of order flow, then, they'd give you a lot of explanation of order flow.

Fx market is very complied market, which is composed of many gamers, all of these have their solution to performance of their fx enterprise. Know of their way of company... So basically a retest of the breakout? Yes that is very common, though I never heard this market manufacturer concept behind it though...

This is something which happens all of the time on any time. Consider the breakout of ranges in the session by way of instance, during ancient london, price will break out and usually at some stage retest and catch orders at the break point, or at the point of the range.

[Fer1188]

98077Have some questions I'd like to get clarified from you men if you don't mind:

1) What order types would you utilize to get into trades? Limit, Market, or even both? Initially I've been playing around with Limit orders, and yes it does permit you to pick some fantabulastic tops/bottoms now and again, however I can't help but feel like the exact same thing could have been done using market orders, then waiting for price to hit your market order. Granted you won't get the mental masturbation of understanding you were lucky enough to pick on a top/bottom, I am presuming the more valuable trade-off would be that it averts those trades that simply don't work out.

2) Do you use a fixed fractional, or fixed percentage fashion of risk management, and why?

Regards,

[layunny]

98077
Have any questions I'd like to get clarified from you men if you don't mind:

1) What order types do you utilize to get into trades? Limit, Market, or both? Initially I have been playing around with Limit orders, and yes it will allow you to pick some fantabulastic tops/bottoms now and again, but I can not help but feel the same thing could have been achieved using market orders, and then waiting for price to hit your market order. Granted you won't have the mental masturbation of knowing you're lucky enough to pick a top/bottom, I am thinking... Personally - Market orders ALWAYS. I hate sitting there using a limit order wondering if its in the ideal price and wondering if it is going to hit or miss. The only time I will use a limit order is when I wish to re open a position after getting stopped out. This way the price is known, in case it dominates my limit I am still in my position, in case it hits my stop I am straight back in the place I want to be in but in a better price. Its a win win! (provided I am placed correctly! If I am not its a lose lose lol)

[barpklijo]

98077
indefinitely - Market orders ALWAYS. I hate sitting there with a limit order wondering if its at the right price and wondering if it will hit or miss. The only time I will use a limit order is when I wish to re open a situation after getting stopped out. This way the price is known, if it dominates my limit I am still in my position, if it strikes at my stop back in the place I need to be in but at a greater price. Its a win win! (provided I am positioned correctly! If I am not its a drop lol) I really don't understand why you'd want to get back in after your stop is hit? Do you mean to become at the trade at precisely the price wherever your sl was?

[layunny]

66950
I really don't understand why you would want to return in after your stop is hit? Do you mean to get in the trade at exactly the same price wherever your sl was? Yeah sometimes you know that you get a great thing going but you simply didn't allow enough space to allow for all the bollixing and sound. I know (or believe) the indicate up/down is a fictitious one but instead of moving my SL back I shall submit a little defeat and re enter at a better price in a new trade. Not right at my stop though I will get back in with a market order when I'm not as confident.

Some will say why don't you typical down and so I say - Cause I do not want to, I do not need to, I'm happy to take my 2% reduction and have another go. I had been just plain wrong to start with In the event the second time I'm stopped out afterward and its time to re evaluate. But that never happens lol https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316969.png

some can say, whats the stage getting halted and re opening to which I state that rules are rules if I've decided to a risk level then thats that. Of course my SL is in a location where I believe the market will fight to go its. I pay the spread which may seem silly but the point is to improve the entry price which is averaging down but I really do it in separate trades not exactly the same one.

[tanabas]

66950random post by me

The attractiveness of order flow trading is that it takes a lot of work in order to achieve the mindset and trade profitably. The advantage is that other people do not conduct order flow trading or are not willing to do the work required to achieve that level of success.

Since it's so hard, and most individuals do not make this, or are not inclined to put in the work, order flow trading can be much more profitable than other forms of trading the markets. Because as you grow in ability and proficiency in the craft of order flow trading, then you've got less and less competitors. Less and less people are adept in the craft of true order flow trading and since there are less competitors you make money in the long run above and beyond that of ordinary profitable traders. The more work something happens, the easier it is to make money from it in the end as other people neglected, or not willing to put necessary.

Therefore the very best order flow traders do not have much competition since they've placed in the work required and can readily pull obscene amounts of money from the market as the people on the other sides of the trades are consistent losers.

Any newcomer can throw up a chart, slap on a few indiors and exchange a moving average crossover.

But very few people may think profoundly about the market and really understand and decode what is shifting the market, exactly what it's expectations are, what the emotions of the participants are, what will generate order flow, why price is shifting and what will cause price movement into the future, and how to profit from it.

As soon as you become that'master artist' of this market then you never go back to create those sub-par pieces of work(sub-par trades). You go for producing the masterpieces and go for the jugular.

Love

[layunny]

66950Hey GRKFX I've been enjoying your insights on this thread and thanks for getting it back on topic there (oops)

May I ask a question? What's the trade frequency like for the way you trade? Do you trade regular? After a month? After a week? And do you hold your positions for on average?

I've just always wondered this about you order flow guys, do they transaction often or rarely or just whenever the shoe fits

Thanks

[Fer1188]

97023Hey,

Yeah I am thinking of beginning to use market orders instead. It is really sad once you have a semblance of what is moving the market, attempt to position yourself with a limit order, but price misses it by 1-2 pips, conforms to your initial anticipations!


Hey GRKFX I've been really enjoying your insights on this thread and thanks for getting it back on subject there (oops)

May I ask a question? What's the trade frequency just like for the way you trade? Do you exchange everyday? After a month? After a week? And how long can you maintain your positions for on average?

I have just always wondered about you order flow guys, don't trade frequently or infrequently or just whenever the shoe fits

Due If you would be so kind as to guide me, would using market orders in trading the news be prudent, as long as you spot what seems to be a mispricing? Or should limit orders be used due to slippage and fill concerns? I am thinking as one starts to pull obscene amounts of money lot dimensions would increase, and would this have any change on the character of how you enter positions; ie. Restrict entrance or market order entry?

Additionally, would my believing be right if I were to posit that not all order flow generators of a specific type, are created equivalent depending upon the entity behind it, some are more equal than others; some will offer a harder amount of'impossibility to lose' than others, based on who's behind it. https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png

Regards,

[layunny]

97023
If you'd be so kind as to guide me, would using market orders in trading that the news be wise, as long as you spot what seems to be a mispricing? Or if limit orders be used alternatively, as a result of slippage and fill worries? I am thinking as one starts to pull obscene amounts of money lot size could grow, and would this have some change on the character of how positions are entered by you; ie. Limit entrance or market order entry?

Additionally, would my believing be right if I were to posit that not all order flow generators of a certain... HI Trizzle, I don't trade the news so can't really comment on that but I'd think that if you saw a mispricing because of a news spike could you have sufficient time to place a limit order? I agree that if you're trading really lots it would change your egy a bit, like using limit orders can make you a goal? However, as a small trader I am not so convinced this is such a big worry unless you're positioned with a whole bunch of others in precisely the same degree, and the amount generally was a goal...

The previous paragraph seems quite plausible to me!

Regards

[audio]

97023Hey guys,

Sorry I have not been really busy recently, but I had an uni test that went straight to hell because I have had other things to consider (ya'll understand exactly what it IZ https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png)

I am having a new dilemma now. As I am viewing the world with new glasses, I am having difficulties interpreting stuff happening in this world and I would like to spend some time to discuss it.
You may know what I am talking about. . News and fundamentals!

The order flow mindset isn't (as I know ) about being a technical trader or a fundamental. It's about being someting in between and/or being a specialized when it's time to be specialized and being fundamental when it's time to be fundamental.

Times like these really are fundamental times. Let us talk news. I would like you to point out.

We look at EURUSD. It's moving up, nonstop. . Only moving upup and up.
Why is this?

In my head (as I have been educated ) I reason such as this:
When there is uncertainty in the world, there is risk aversion supporting USD,JPY and CHF. All these are safe-haven currencies. We all know that correct?

So what's the deal? The arab world is in a phase of revolution and there is uncertainty. . People should dump every risk strength and buy let's say USD (in the example of EURUSD).
But how come the EURUSD is climbing UP? What's wrong with my logic? Shouldn't the bias be towards BEAR from the Euro?

So I would like to have some ideas about this i.e. the way to (haha) translate news and exactly what one should focus on?

Take care and hope you had a fantastic weekend.

[jfr1954]

97023
Hey guys,

We Seem at EURUSD. It is moving up, non stop. . Moving upup and up.
Why is that?

In my head (as I have been educated ) I reason like this:
If there is doubt in the world, there is risk aversion toward... The primary reason I believe that is happening is that fundamental shift has started regarding”usd since the secure heaven/world reserve currency”.
Folks simply don't belive in usd anymore(by people I mean shareholders around the world). This is long term I believe...
The other matter,more of a brief term is that the cash is attempting to have as many folks in long as possible,while buying themselves.We have seen two fast drops and then retrieval already.Could are the third,I do not understand. I hope not,since I'm short from 1.38xx. I believe eur needs just a trigger bad news to get a big run down,and that I think the market is prepared for it. Or we might se another drive by the big money to about 1.4000.
However, this is only my theory,from reading to the site and attempting to do receive the peaces together,I'm by all means no expert,so don't take my word for it.
And looking forward to hear others to...

[Miki_EU]

97023That's why we've got a market - because I find no reason to buy USD. The world is saturated in US dollars and the solution to a financial meltdown of the FED is to print more money.
A safe-haven currency for me could be CAD and, even if I would be a long-term speculator, I would buy CADJPY.

There is no discernible long uptrend in EURUSD, anything could happen. I'm wondering AUD is still growing following the NZ' earthquake.

[Grif]

97023
The primary reason I think that is happening is that fundamental shift has begun regarding”usd since the secure heaven/world reserve currency”.
People simply don't belive in usd anymore(by people I mean shareholders around the planet ). This is more long term I believe... no wonder

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/federal-reserve-balance-sheet-update-excess-reserves-surge-fed-owns-37-more-treasurys-china

[layunny]

97023I that because of the character of the world point right now tactics have been shifted by traders in general to a far shorter term perspective of things. Nobody knows wha the next few years will deliver or can not be sure since they were and so long-term investors have had to change tactics.

Just a thought.

[Lu-92]

97023
Hey guys,

Sorry I have not been really active lately, but I had an uni test that went straight to hell since I have had other things to consider (ya'll understand what it IZ https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png)

I am having a new problem now. As I am seeing the world using new glasses, I am having problems interpreting stuff and I would like to spend the time to talk about it.
You may know what I am speaking about. . News and fundamentals!

The order flow mindset is not (as I understand) about being a technical trader or some fundamental. It's about being... Very interesting post Carnegie. I agree 100 percent with. . .someting in between being a specialized when it is time to be specialized and being fundamental when it is time to be fundamental.

Interpreting news, reports, amounts and fundamentals is not simple and thats why Economics and Trading is so intriguing and challenging even though it doesnt' necessarily mean which you need to understand a thing about it to be a fantastic trader.

IMO, you do not have a flaw in your logic but in context of currency trading you maybe overseeing some variables and interrelation that may explain just a little bit better what is going on.

You discuss risk aversion on the political climate in the word (M.East hence oil, gold, etc) and that's been a definitively clear factor in the last few weeks and the incontrovertible proof is CHF breaking to all time lows, oil breaking 100 and gold back into the highs.

However on the eur/usd and all usd pairs, is not that the Dollar has dropped the secure heaven/world reserve currencystatus but other current macroeconomic variables are in play with the last few months, and they should not be disregarded.

That why the eur/usd is climbing the panic selloffs on debt crisis last year went too far too fast (typical fear move) so the pair has come back into a more rational and technical levels (it doesn't signify that the problem is gone and it will hit soon). This year rally was made strictly on anticipation of interest rate increase on the ECB so when German numbers beginning to prosper the pressures on inflation and therefore the evident interest rate increase has made the pair go up up up (do not forget that one of the principal factors for almost any currency transfer are interest rates and inflation expectations).

Should you add oil breaking 100, the inflationary pressures on the EZ and in the US are enormous. The problem is that the US will increase interest rates no more than this summer is evident that first you gamble on the EZ increase and later on the FED increase. The explanation in this really is timing not if the dollar has gone into garbage. Obviously, the majority of the EZ rate increase is pumped within our charts and in 2 weeks you will find key EZ assembly on Portugal (default/bailout more probably than not) which will coincide with the /-1.40xx or below TA cap level on the pair (as soon as the debt fears entered in the equation) so in simple words, the ECB increase can put a harmful end trigger on debt problems and that why all rallies on the last 2 weeks have been triggered by slips on the ECB on interest rates. They need to push so far as possible up once the bad thing hit the fan to prevent collapse.

In any case, my point is that FA analysis is a lot more complicated and interrelated. I maybe wrong in my FA analysis however, the point is the same, try to observe the key interrelated factors and make your analysis.... But consistently with TA for its last cause...

[audio]

66950
I am under the belief that because of the character of the world stage right now investors in general have changed tactics to a much shorter term perspective of things. Nobody can't be sure as they were and therefore long term investors have had to shift tactics or knows.

Just a thought. That is a fairly great idea cindy. But I have to ask; this substance about USD not being regarded as safe haven anymore etc.. In essence a long-term egy, IS. I don't think China will overpower the U.S from the forthcoming 6 months but that is irrelevant and who the fuck am I to say that?

However, if that's long term, and that it will not be regarded as safe harbor IN THE FUTURE. . Why are people currently dumping it now - short term?

That is a fairly awful explanation but I hope you guys understand.

Take care

[layunny]

66950
That is a pretty great idea cindy. But then I have to ask; this stuff about USD not being regarded as safe haven anymore etc..

Take care Hey Carnegie great to see you back

Permanently though? Is this an accepted given? Or just the current view of things? Will the US cop that and lye down? I strongly doubt it. .

All these unsure matters is whats sparking IMO non long-term commnt from the big money. However, this really is the point where I start talking beyond my understanding and no matter so I guess I was just thinking out loud what I mentioned is backed up by any solid research.

[audio]

66950Hey cindy, it's very good to be back https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png and very great to see you've been taking care of this thread while I was gone! I see you've been around and answering etc..

That's true! I agree 100% about this, when the US attempts to alter things and what's going to occur? And more importantly. . HOW will things alter?

Yeah I see what you are saying but I can not find the large picture as of yet. . I'm not there you know.
And btw it doesn't matter if you talk beyond your comprehension or not as we are attempting to sparkle a debate here, so let's talk!
PS. I have been thinking out loud at just two thread today https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png hahah

deal with bud


Hey great to see you back

Permanently though? Is this only an accepted given? Or the current view of things? Will the US just lye down and cop that? I strongly doubt it. .

These unsure things is whats tripping IMO non long term commnt from the big money. But this is the point where I start speaking beyond my comprehension and none of what I said is backed up by any research, therefore I guess I was just thinking out loud.

[tanabas]

66950Ohh man. . Where do I begin?

Thinking about long term fundamentals is futile unless you plan on placing a few trades annually and holding through 500-1500 pip drawdowns.

As for USD losing its standing as secure heaven/world reserve currency. Currently that's baloney. If people really thought that the USD will be down 1,000 - 2,000 pips and EUR will be pushing 1.50 . Cable will be breaking well instead of pulling back.

That does not mean the EUR can't push greater, it just may push greater for different reasons, or eventually the market may begin to temporarily believe in the whole losing the planet currency reserve status and lead to a change in sentiment.

I'd focus on identifying the intraday, swing trading, and mispricings and place trades with less than a couple of months months in duration. Once you master intraday, you can move to swing trade, then you can move to longer term transactions. That is the way.

Why is this a fantastic way? Well I don't know what will work for you as follows, but my thinking is. Predicting intraday moves is much simpler because the inefficiencies occur more frequently. You can make quicker breakthroughs and advance, at least this is how I did 22, if they occur more frequently. Once you master intraday moves you can correct the order flow and liquidity entrance parameters for swing trading. Once you master that the criteria can be adjusted by you again for more term trading.

You generally start off with a smaller timeframe since the transactions occur more frequently. As you go to higher and higher timeframes there are less number of transactions (but bigger moves).

The way I thought of it is, initially you want maximum expertise and setting trades as frequently as you can, that still adheres to some order flow principles, so you go intraday. You want the experience.

Should you attempt doing long term trades which last a couple of months you may place a few trades per year, but since you put fewer transactions you may gain less expertise. You might continue to be profitable or profitable, but initially I wanted and most experience possible.

Once you learn to understand the shorter term mispricings, which might be simpler in my opinion, you can then proceed to the longer term mispricings and figure out how to exchange people.

Although what is going to work for you, I have no idea.

[Lu-92]

66950
Ohh man. . Where can I start?

Thinking about long term fundamentals is useless unless you you plan on placing a few trades a year and holding through 500-1500 pip drawdowns.

As for USD losing its standing as safe heaven/world reserve currency.... Although I disagree with your view on FA trading and short term trading, what it struck me is the miss-pricing comment.

It's possibly semantics and I'm not doubting your trading abilities, but I wouldn't dare to say that you or any small trader is exploiting price inefficiencies. You perhaps trading something else however leave the few misspricings (if any recognizable and tradable with a guide trader) for the algos and quants. Check a number of oldquant and paythelimit posts on actual examples on how exploiting price inefficiencies worked one or two days in very particular markets (corn and soft futures) by very big players once or perhaps twice moving countless contract for JUST ONE TICK so that I seriously doubt any of us can do that .

In any case, best of luck with your trading.

[layunny]

66950It... Is... Done...

[layunny]

66950
It... Is... Done... https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.pnghttps://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.pnghttps://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.pngamusing I was juuuust about to post saying wheres DS!

[layunny]

66950
Although I disagree with your perspective FA trading and short term trading, what I struck me is the miss-pricing comment.

It's maybe semantics and I am not doubting your trading skills, but I would not dare to say that any small trader is harnessing price inefficiencies. You perhaps trading some thing else however leave the couple misspricings (if any recognizable and tradable by a manual trader) to your algos and quants.... Oh man, you're so wrong that there, don't judge a dude by a single article is all I could say. Perhaps You're thought of mispricing is at a mathamatical sense... And yes this really is a game for the computers This is the quant style, I think mispricings Concerning orderflows are somewhat more misalloions of liquididity

[Lu-92]

66950
Oh man, you are so wrong that there, do not judge a dude by one article is all I could say. Perhaps you're thought of mispricing is at an mathamatical sense... Here is actually the quant style, I believe mispricings in terms of orderflows are somewhat more misalloions of liquididity Sure Cindy I'm not here to fight, neither I'm judging him, thats why I mentioned is likely about semantics. Terms and concepts get a little bit mess up in FF. They are not the terms you will hear in trading but that I guess is the words that are abused not the concepts.

Plus I really don't have any idea what you mean with missaloloions of liquidity but I'll be happy to hear their opinion on it.

[layunny]

66950

Plus I do not have a clue what you believe with missaloloions of liquidity but I will be happy to listen to their opinion on it.

Neither do I https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png sounded good though didn't it https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png

[Lu-92]

66950
neither do I https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png sounded great though didn't it https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316956.png lol. . .give you all credit for that.

[tanabas]

66950
Sure Cindy I am not here to fight, neither I am judging him, thats why I stated is likely about semantics. Sometimes concepts and conditions have up a little bit mess . They are not but I guess is just the words that are abused not the concepts.

Plus I really don't have any idea what you believe with missaloloions of liquidity but I'll be delighted to listen to your or his view on it.

Yeah I am not speaking algos or quants. I don't have any clue how they operate, nor do I care.

When I discuss mis pricings, I mean order flow mispricings meaning that there'll be people eager to maneuver the price substantially, because the current market price doesn't reflect the true value, according to just how some market participants view the market and may generate the order flow to maneuver price.

You will find mathematical quant and algo inefficiencies, but the normal trader can't exploit those (at least I do not think so).

Then there are order flow inefficiencies, which is foundation of each market according to my own mindset.

Afterward within order flow inefficiencies there are unique egories like mis alloions of bandwidth inefficiencies, sentiment inefficiencies, fundamental inefficiencies, etc..

[BeatrizMixxok]

98038
It... Is... Done... I trust you are talking about the book! Will we get an email shortly with buying directions?

[Lu-92]

66950
Yeah I am not talking algos or quants.... I get it understand grkfx, simply fading S/R levels...

I concur that a very valid strategy, good luck in your trading.

[Lissetlugo]

66950
I do it understand grkfx, only fading S/R levels...

I concur that a very legitimate approach, good luck in your trading.

If only it were that easy, this thread probably wouldn't exist https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316932.png

DS - congratulations fella. A big achievement.

[Evamm]

66950Good occupation it has to feel quite great to have achieved your goal. I hope Ill have the chance to lay my eyes upon your job https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316932.png

[jaibotaf]

66950
It... Is... Done... So your girlfriend knows it? https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316932.png

[Lu-92]

66950
If only it were that easy, this thread probably would not exist https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316932.png

DS - congratulations fella. A big accomplishment. Semantics againhttps://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316932.png. Simple does not mean easy. Regardless of what the KISS advoes said, trading isn't easy or easy. Using or correctly fading a rest of S/R is as simple or difficult as any trading fashion.

But unnecessary compliing theories and definitions with fine pseudo technical titles along with also a verbose writing style is futile and confuse a lot of newcomers (that was my last post about) when the principles discussed have been there for years and they're defined as simple as fading a S/R degree.

[Rafalete68]

66950aren't the specialized levels where traders get murdered?

Simply fading s/r amounts isn't what is happening here no matter which way you look at it.

[Lu-92]

66950
aren't the technical levels where traders get killed?

Simply fading s/r amounts isn't what is happening here no matter how you look at it. Perspective mate.... perspective.

I am interested in judging what do you do here or trying to know or trash your way or anyone way of analyzing or trading the markets. I must agree that so long as money is made by you, nobody should care do you call the specialized tools you are using.

I just made an observation on the terminology a poster used that struck me seemed very misleading from the actual meaning, he explained and I understood what he intended.... so nothing else....

By the end perspective in trading is in the eye of the beholder.

Best of luck on your trading.

[Rafalete68]

66950
Perspective partner.... perspective.

I'm interested in judging what do you do here or seeking to understand or trash your way or anybody way of assessing or trading the markets. I must agree that so long as you make money, no one should care can you call the specialized tools you're using.

I simply made an observation on the terminology a poster used which struck me seemed very misleading from the real meaninghe explained and I knew what he intended.... so nothing else....

In the conclusion [b]perspective in trading... I don't think that it's about our perspective, but it's all good matey. Good luck to you as well.

[Pandegamba_]

66950
Oh man, you're so wrong that there, do not judge a dude by a single post is all I could say. Perhaps you're idea of mispricing is at an mathamatical sense... And yes this really is a sport for those computers This is the quant style, I believe mispricings concerning orderflows are more misalloions of liquididity Algo trading isn't only quant. HFT is about order-flow - algos hunting and front-running order-flow. I understand a few HFT trading egies that are standard, and it's about watching the L2 book, getting out once flow comes in, getting in again when the flows dry up, and playing the range in the mean-time. It's all a positioning against order-flow game. Of course, they just care about mispricings in a at most 4-hour interval.

[Rafalete68]

66950 Carnegie, If I could post a chart...

what hapened here???

Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/152931694150537248.png

from the previous day (feb 21)

0304 GMT [Dow Jones] The EUR/USD is decreasing on increasing risk-aversion following intensifying Libyan political unrest, which can be pushing Chinese and Japanese stocks down,'' says Mitsuru Sahara, a senior foreign exchange trader at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. There are many things happening in Asia however, the Libyan situation is weighing on the euro that the most. The pair reaches 1.3592 vs 1.3685 earlier; a U.S. bank trader said it might fall into 1.3550, adding its declines will also be influenced by falls in the EUR/JPY. Following the euro struck stop-loss buying orders at Y114.00, profit-taking selling orders kicked in, and also a European bank was particularly active in the transaction, the U.S. bank trader states. The cross reaches 113.10 and may fall into 112.75, he adds.

---------------------

Cross/JPY, Cross/CHF, EUR/Crosses, AUD/Crosses, NZD/Crosses under broad based selling. USD, CHF, JPY On safe haven on global risk aversion. AUD/USD stoploss hit under 1.0050 into 1.0041, EUR/USD stops struck under 1.3600 into 1.3587 lows and more drawback seen given issues over Bank of Spain comments that Spain's cajas have EUR100bln worth of possibly problematic loans. And concerns over Libya news- . EUR/USD eye rest of 1.3550, subsequently 1.3500 as funds, hedge funds, Japanese mega-city banks huge sellers of EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and Europeans, Asians selling EUR/USD as well. Could see supranational that are Asian sovereign, Swiss, East Europeans, Swiss, Asian, Russian, Middle East promoting more EUR/USD, GBP/USD. EUR/USD provides 1.3650, GBP/USD lower at 1.6175-80, eye 1.6050, EUR/CHF hit 1.2897 lows, eye rest of 1.2880 to get 1.2750 on risk aversion, WL

---------------------
---------------------

from following the feb22 close, following the fall from the start of feb 23rd....

EUR/USD is making new strides on the downside, with the market dipping under 1.3525 temporarily as an Asian central bank has only been seen buying at the lows. While we note the substantial those'holders of USD's' have on the market at the time, the risk off motif this morning may prove a little over-powering this time around. You cannot get it all your own way all of the time! There are some decent sized stops only under 1.3500, and it seems as though we'll observe these tripped at some stage.
----------------

later...

Earlier session highs from EUR/USD have been busted, however, the market is still showing no signs of wanting to give up on the upside, with yesterday's 1.3717 high now firmly in sight. Through here it is all eyes 1.3744, also with heightened rate hike expectations, courtesy of the Mersch opinions earlier, price action suggests this will almost surely occur'if' 1.3717 provides way. We see little reason to flip bullish, though a US think-tank has added to the rate hike'enthusiasm' and it seems this has given the place move its'recent' legs. SM

[soxido]

66950
Hey guys,

Sorry I haven't been really busy recently, but I had an uni examination that went straight to hell since I've had other things to think about (ya'll understand what it IZ https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316934.png)

I'm using a new dilemma now. As I'm seeing the world with new glasses, I'm having problems interpreting stuff happening on the planet and I would like to take the time.
You might know what I'm speaking about. . News and fundamentals!

The order flow mindset is not (as I know ) about being a technical trader or a fundamental. It is about being... I think part of the reason that the Euro is rising is due to the short term interest rates. But if the things start to repay it will start swinging the other way unless the long-term interest rates opposite.
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293169422037323839.pdf
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293169441873616949.pdf

[Lu-92]

66950
Carnegie, If I could place a chart...

exactly what hapened here???

....
Simply fading s/r levels is not what's going on here no matter which way you look at it. Fading daily aid on daily supported uptrend on ECB slide on interest rate hikes... lol sorry couldn't resist but that was happened for real.

In all seriousness, fine chart and way of trading and allow see how high euro can go until the 1.40xx debt crisis cap before debt catastrophe round 3 hit on the table next two weeks starting with Brussels meetings and new Portugal 10 yrs sales trading on highs.

Good luck

[Rafalete68]

66950
Fading daily support on daily confirmed uptrend on ECB slip on interest rate hikes... lol sorry couldn't resist but that has been occurred for real.

In all seriousness, fine chart and way of trading and let see how high euro can go until the 1.40xx debt crisis cap before debt crisis round 3 hit the table next two weeks starting with Brussels encounters and new Portugal 10 yrs sales trading on highs.

Good luck

haha yes a straightforward technical explanation really and nothing wrong with this I think that is a fine means of discovering the entrance and pulling the trigger. This was infact a daily trendline I had in red, and that I left out up the bottom trendline where it has been becoming purchased hard from... and precisely where it bounced from, but let's not neglect the liquidity beneath the 3544 swing reduced where there are stops putting... and let's not forget who's buying and playing the game .

As far as USD, we have the entire QE scenario after a few weak US data a week. The thought is that the ECB will raise rates sooner the FED and the market is pricing that in. We've got NFP this week so I am guessing this week will range up here as many restrict vulnerability.

With tensions in the middle east the wildcard and of course as you mentioned, the eurozone debt crisis still in the backdrop.

I'll be watching how the market reacts to Trichet and Ben through the week, the US information beforehand, and also paying attention to the mid east.

On a negative note, I have been hearing of flows coming OUT of CHF as most are uncomfortable being at these amounts in CHF and also with Goldman releasing buy recommendations on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF.... strange times....


BUT. . Simply fading s/r amounts... I do not think so.

[Lu-92]

66950I don't use trendlines but that is beyond the point. I agree with you FA perspective and also that it had been trading air below 1.354x. On those who had been buying we can have a very long debate but can assure you that most of retail micro timeframes in FF weren't looking to buy when it happened.




haha yes a simple technical explanation indeed and nothing wrong with this as I think that's a fine way of finding the entry and pulling the trigger. That was infact a daily trendline I had in crimson, and that I left out up the bottom trendline where it's been becoming purchased hard off of... and exactly where it bounced off of, but let's not neglect the liquidity under the 3544 swing reduced where you will find stops putting... and let's not forget who's buying and playing the game here.

So Far as USD, We've Got the entire...

[Rafalete68]

66950
I do not use trendlines but this is beyond the point. I agree with you FA outlook and that it was trading air below 1.354x. On those who was buying we can have a very long discussion but can assure you that most of retail micro timeframes in FF weren't looking to buy if it happened.

Consented...

[Ibercarltt]

66950 I believe that euro drop to 1.3550 zone on 22/2/2011 was a cleaning up the market before London open, and also a typical hedge amount procedure as I pointed out in my prior article. Some men have to clean out their positions for market to fold up. Trading this kind of price move isn't hard. (1). Loe the degree. (2). Wait a buy signal. (3). Then enter long.

See my chart. eur-usd, H1.

Is this kind of move order flow behavior or order flow trading or order flow mindset???

Or Is Chinese Great Wall at euro???
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293169461108798964.png
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316935.png

[Rafalete68]

66950some people view it as simply fading s/r, some people today view it after the fact and find the pinbar PA, some folks do other shit that knows what they're doin'...

All I know is, I always like to read into the news, capture the key amounts, order flow information, who's behind it, what's happening in the market that would lead to the flows, and what times these specific things happen to get myself greater probability trades and at the money faster.

Orderflow mindset to me is just using your head to determine what will actually make people to consciously buy and market and make the flows to this stuff and how they go about doing this. It may be applied to all time scales.

I don't know...

[pixatintes]

66950
I feel that euro fall to 1.3550 zone 22/2/2011 was a cleaning up the market before London open, along with a normal hedge amount process as I pointed out in my previous article. Some guys have to clean out their short positions on the market to swing up. Trading this type of price move is not difficult. (1). Loe the level. (2). Wait a buy signal. (3). Quickly get into long.

See my chart. eur-usd, H1.

Can this type of move order flow behavior or order flow trading or order flow mindset???

Or Can Be Chinese Great Wall at euro??? I believed they were stop searching
please share ur understanding of london,as ive been trading london open quite successfully for 3 weeks today
I really would love to find out more from u

my notion is that ahead of london,30 minutes before,for instance we have a downward trend,then london opens the prevent seekers go to the best range of those shorts,knock out their stops and reverse (if theres some fantastic news,they will be following the anticipated direction of the statement )
always trying to prevent hunt us
if theres no major news
the leadership goes the opposite from the tokyo's major leadership that went throughout the afternoon

I dont know if this is the real motive,but it seems close
as I cant find any explanation why it goes this way
if some one of u have a better explanation of the happening please share,im willing to listen


do u believe they always scam,
and proceed for stops?or only soemtimes they proceed together with the hedge
if they scam,woultdnt that produce a balance in price?
Or maybe what ur saying is that the traders before london open and the ones at london open are the very same guys?
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316948734044478.png

[Ibercarltt]

66950Ok, let speaking about London open.
In my observation, London open and close are extremely important to watch and trading. I use 8 gmt since London session begin for Mon-Fri.

1. London got 300 and banks . They have to perform a fx settlement, when company open. All of them must get a market price. So 15 minutes or 30 minutes, all banks have to get much better price for them. Market makers must make good price as setting up price. Bullish afternoon, price is going to be jitty up, etc.. .
2. London open, trading volume will probably be huge quantity. All type of traders will leap into open session. Order flow is going to be raised.
3. If big man market manufacturers were in wrong position in past sessions, they've get out of their incorrect positions in market, which they can control, before London open. This might be one of reasons why there are a lot of movement before London open.
4. London open prepare the tone for the day if no major news emerge. So, most of traders may like to accept the direction bias.
5. Of course, any news or price level will change directional bias is opened by London.

London near is also rather important. Banks have to settle out their orders, or just orders, or waiting-good-price orders. All day traders have to grabe what they can get to shut their positions.

So, if you are so order flow traders, you might have to utilize London open and shut.

I discovered here a few combination up in order flow trading, order flow mindset, fundamental analysis, fundamental-oriented trading, fundamental mindset, news trading, news after trading, news oriented trading, fundy-tech mix trading.

My query is what's order flow mentality? What is order flow mindset trading procedure your man have beeen trading for while? I haven't read detail of about this subject. Need of an aid. Can anyone of you draw on a detail of measure for order flow mentality trading?

[JaviNota]

980771 Structure (s) Been researching for some time now and have come up with a couple ideas.

Primarily after reviewing the attached Pdf from Bank of England stats it may be stated that the major portion of fx trades are made by other financial institutions along with also the definition of them are as described below.

This egory covers the financial institutions which are not reporting traders. Therefore, it is going to include smaller commercial banks, investment banks and securities houses, and in addition mutual funds, retirement funds, hedge funds, currency funds, money market funds, building societies, leasing firms, insurance companies, other financial subsidiaries of corporate companies and central banks.

Now I think to forecast order flow in areas can be done but I think that a clearer comprehension of the look for liquidity would be required to try and predict where these orders are likely to hit the market. It seems obvious that benchmarks have to be utilized alot on trades. Are Vwap Twap closing/opening price and normal price. Further investigation has to be carried out to see if orders do tend to be executed around them.

The following product I have been investigating is that the Fx Forwards. Especially after seeing this article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8190285/Prince-William-makes-record-17bn-foreign-currency-trade.html

In theory should we know a forward price and execution date there perhaps some method of anticipating orders coming in at those amounts. I think that payroll dates perhaps something else to look at.

Please inform me if I am seriously off course.

James.
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/152931691086356809.pdf

[Fer1188]

66950Practically, if we are talking EUR/USD I've got a free brief trade at 1.3845 with SL just behind the barrier. I would've pushed into it, but I've got reason to think this will be a tough cookie. If it does crack, hold on to your hats. . .stop behind the barrier just in case https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316905.png

[Hecpkrlep]

66950
If we're talking EUR/USD I've got a free brief trade at 1.3845 with SL just behind the barrier. I have reason to think that this is going to be a hard cookie, although I would have pushed together with the hunters. If it does crack, then hold on to your hats. . .buy-stop supporting the barrier only if https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316905.png

Are you enjoying it also? I really believe in putting everything we have learned so far into 16, the hands-on helps! .3850 is nearly like removed, the conflict was won before the struggle started, the actual market conditions and the terrain will be favorizing a push and outside

the writters are going to have some deep issues with that option

all the very best!

[Fer1188]

66950
.3850 is almost like taken out, the battle was won even before the fight started, the actual market conditions and the terrain are favorizing a push and beyond

the writters are going to have some deep issues with that choice

all the very best! Normally, I'd agree with you, but it's because I have an idea as to who the writer was, I'm thinking it will be defended. I've entered two more positions again in 1.3845, SL only behind the barrier, and these positions will also be free transactions, since half has been removed at R1.

If nothing happens by 10:00, I will be quite content...

EDIT: Everything taken out in BE, it had been breached!!
However, this proved to be a really revealing exercise. I think I may have discovered something I wasn't actually looking for!

[JaviNota]

66950Watching the Market depth on Dukascopy theres a right battle been watching up to 70 million on the bid.

[JaviNota]

Those hurdles are going to be quite exhausted soon the options at 1.3850?

[Rafalete68]

66950
Ordinarily, I would agree with you, however it's because I have an idea as to who the writer was, I'm thinking it will be defended. I have entered two positions again in 1.3845, SL only behind the barrier, and these places are also free trades, since half was taken off at R1.

If nothing occurs by 10:00, I'll be quite pleased...

EDIT: Everything performed in BE, it had been breached!!
However, this was a very revealing exercise. I think I might have found something I wasn't even looking for! You put your stop right at the goal for rizzle trizzle??

If I wished to really go to the fade, I would have waited to get the stops for hit and watched the response... but definitely wouldn't have place my halt from the kill zone, seems suicidal....

Obviously for all the OF traders, I believe that the best play here is to get in around 3700 level on the sunday open pullback and evaporate last fridays stops and collapse of the crucial level into the barrier.

[Fer1188]

66950See. .the thing is I had been feeling sorry for Carnegie also. . I decided that just this once he deserved to have my stop for his efforts. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316905.png

But yeah, I thought that the men behind this one wouldn't let me down, so I figure I'll know better next time.

Did you play with it?

EDIT:The funniest thing is I wanted to kind of place it behind the kill-zone, because I had a feeling PA would whip back down at rapid time as hunters mass-liquidated into them. Plus it gets struck by not a pip, but by pipettes. These are the sorts! I'll play with the following using some unorthodox trade managment I seemed to have pulled out of my hat today..so it wasn't a complete lost cause. https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316905.png

[Rafalete68]

66950
See..the thing is I had been feeling really sorry for Carnegie also. . I decided that just this when he deserved to have my stop for his efforts. Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316905.png

But yeah, I thought that the guys behind this one wouldn't let me down, so I figure I will know better next time.

Did you play with it?

EDIT:The funniest thing is I wanted to kind of place it behind the kill-zone, because I had a sense PA would whip back down in rapid time as hunters mass-liquidated in to them. And it gets struck by not a pip, but by pipettes. These are the kinds of lessons you never... lol I hear you guy...

I had two transactions last night but should have just left the original trade that was the fade out of 3725 (where I got in) held it to the 3750 consolidation and TP.

Afterward, later that night for the london session... simple entry on the 3762 pullback at 3:30am EST only held that until 3795 TP and called it a night... so I did not play it in the barrier, but I am going high leverage and these transactions are plenty for me and I could hardly hold my eyes open. I awakened to see shit got wiped clean...

GU was likewise a simple drama on the gap.... And that thing rocked hard.

[Rafalete68]

66950
EDIT:The funniest thing is I wanted to sort of place it behind the kill-zone, since I had a sense PA would whip back down in quick time as seekers mass-liquidated into them. For what it's worth I feel that was a fantastic premise, so today you learn more about how to perform it.

Particularly since I really don't think we will see a big break from this range up here until some news gets behind it.

[edukrdoka]

66950
It... Is... Done... That's great, Darkstar! I signed up in your website a while ago. If we plan on getting an email regarding ordering instructions?

Congratulations!

[tanabas]

Guys are doing good! especially Monroe. Keep this up!

[Rafalete68]

66950thanks grkfx... I've been working hard on this stuff for some time now, though I've only been investing for a little more than a year so far in total...

It seems much longer to me personally since I've been watching the market so much daily it is almost mad... so I tried to find the most practice in a short quantity of time, which is why I 110% agree with your remark that individuals should start practicing intraday at first to receive more experience, instead of waiting for the swing and more duration plays.

With the help of you order flow traders, after about 6 weeks to my scalping thing, I began to look deeper into the way the market functions, market structure, mechanics, and how it all plays together... cut past all the bullshit, wasn't just following price blindly.

It's starting to pay off big time.

[edukrdoka]

66950
clearly for most of the OF traders, I think that the best play here was to get in about 3700 level on the sunday open pullback and fade last fridays stops and also collapse of the key level to the barrier. I'm new to this, but can you (or grkfx, or DS...) explain to me why this was clearly the ideal play for orderflow traders? I'm not being sarcastic, I truly want to learn.

I got short at 1.3830 on Thursday evening (NY time) since I felt pretty strongly that the 3850 level was not going to be taken out straight-away. I figured that price may want to fall back before taking the 3850 barrier out to shake longs. Regrettably, I did not ch anywhere near the entire down movement (looks like it eventually went to 3711, but I covered my short way before that), but I felt like I left a pretty good orderflow-based trade. Was I just lucky, or is there any validity to trading with the defenders, rather than trying to trade in the barrier?

[Rafalete68]

66950
I'm new to this, but can you (or grkfx, or DS...) explain to me why this is clearly the best play for orderflow traders? I'm not being sarcastic, I truly wish to learn.

I obtained brief at 1.3830 on Thursday evening (NY time) because I felt pretty strongly that the 3850 degree wasn't likely to be taken out straight-away. I figured that price may want to fall back before taking out the 3850 barrier to shake out weak longs. Regrettably, I didn't ch anywhere near the entire down movement (looks like it finally went to 3711, but I covered my... Hey bro, I sort of already explained why I thought it had been my notion of a solid trade, I do not know if others agree, how I see it.

Your commerce makes some sense seeing it had been the end of the week and it had been getting congested up there, maybe not before later london did it show that the direction for me, I wasn't trying to play and ch tops up there until confirmation of this obstruction, etc..

Keeping it simple, we're in an uptrend longer duration. . This is plain as day, and with whats going on in the market, I'm not seeing a big break out from here before something gives it some juice, we have some things later in the week to get potential potential, we have CB speaking heads, rate announcements, and EU and US data plus NFP friday. So I'm looking to play with this range for the time being. Pretty simple things I just went long on the failure to break the downside key level on low volume (on a sunday asian open keep in mind) after stops obtained filled under fridays low to get a glimpse of the highs with our rumored obstacle up there to get extra assurance.

[layunny]

66950Awesome that you have come so far with this material in just your first year and a little trading Monroe... Seriously awesome, congrats for you man. I really don't know why but I always assumed you needed a couple more years than that under your belt, I'm blown away.

[Rafalete68]

66950
Wonderful that you've come so far with this stuff in just your first year and a little trading... Seriously awesome, congrats for you guy. I really don't understand why but I always assumed you needed a couple more years than that, I'm blown away. Hey thanks bro!

I understand you play guitar and so do I.. . And it's the exact same thing... you have one guy strumming a few chords for perhaps a half an hour every couple of days without much determination to become a great artist, and then you got crazy people like me which eventually become pretty good in a couple of years since they practiced at least 4 hours every day, shredding until there fingers were bleeding and had a genuine appreciation of songs. Now it has been 10 decades nearly on guitar but that I played drums since I was 5... merely naturally did it that is another thing.... I believe in gift with artwork, some folks just have the makeup for it and they really like doing it that compels them harder. In trading, perhaps it's other attributes and the ideal reasons.

From the start I didn't fill my charts up with indiors and start gambling, or look for robots to make me money, I knew right off the bat that shit won't function and that is not exactly what I came here to do. I was not expecting or seeking to devise a get rich quick scheme. I guess what helped is by the get-go I studied them like I did for a few guie and inspiration, with guitar and seemed for the greats.

I am not great yet, but trying everyday.

Anyway, thanks to the words.

[EspinET]

66950
From the start I did not fill my charts up with indiors and begin gambling, or look for robots to make me money, I knew right off the bat that shit won't work and that is not what I came here to do. If folks would just follow this they would save a lot of headaches and time.

Why? Since you can focus on the market and your location as a trader inside, rather than a bunch of nonsense.

Good trading for you M!

[Rafalete68]

66950
If people would just comply with this they would save a lot of time and headaches.

Why? Because you can concentrate on the market and your location as a trader in it, rather than a bunch of nonsense that is peripheral.

Good trading for you ! Right on , same for you!

[pixatintes]

669501 Structure (s) jack and redbaron thanks for sharing ur understanding
I really enjoy it

redbaron
take a look at these connections,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market
Determinants of FX ratesscroll down to this section after u read evrything on the page,people underestimate wikipedia as they think its a massive bore
but its good source of advice



Why Can Dealers Gun For Stops?
Http://www.forexlive.com/169599/all/why-do-dealers-gun-for-stops
take a look at seans comments from the comment section
Charles, sort of the reverse in regards to limit orders. If you are monitoring a buy order below the mkt the trend is to receive long ahead of the order.

Similar to what jack wrote
https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-system-and-egies/1309-easy-simple-position-size-indi-fixed.html

cheers fellas
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15293169161336672659.pdf

[Fer1188]

66950Hey guys,

I can understand why there would be a correlation between say Oil and USD/CAD or Gold and AUD/USD, but how would one go about explaining correlations between pairs such as GBP/USD and EUR/USD, from an order flow perspective? Is it simply the USD backbone? Is there possible in correlations? Identifying scenarios of divergence?

Just thinking aloud,

[Ibercarltt]

66950In my observation, if eur-gbp pair is trading in small range, then, gbp-u and eur-u go move at the speed aganist usd.

But, when e-gbp is swing up, then, eur-usd often move quickly aganist usd, and cable transfer at slow, small pace.

So, have to check e-gbp to select which e-u or g-u to exchange.

[Ibercarltt]

66950Thanks Dragan53.

BB_egy is a good, useful egy for order flow trading during open session.

We want more order flow trading egy to practice, and bid out market manufacturers.

[Rafalete68]

66950
In my observation, if eur-gbp pair is trading in little range, then, eur-u and gbp-u go move in precisely the exact same speed aganist usd.

However, when e-gbp is fed upward, then, eur-usd often move quickly aganist usd, and cable transfer in slow, little pace.

So, have to check e-gbp to select which e-u or g-u to exchange. Yes... I do exactly the exact same type of thing with EG. However, so far as EU/GU correlation... I would not place much weight on that.

[pixatintes]

66950
Thanks Dragan53.

BB_egy is a good, helpful egy for order flow trading during open session.

We need more order flow trading egy to clinic, and bid out market makers. It doesnt occur frequently,but if it does,it moves 50pips
from my experience its best to exchange london available on m1,because its really fast

to bidthem out we really have to dark,and do exactly the same as they do,beat them in their game,so they dont notice our stops
I dont use some stops on london open,I only exit when I feel like I got in the Incorrect direction



now I entered brief as I saw the last 20 minutes of london were up,but my experience told me it Should be 40 min,evrything else is unexpectable
lost 17,afterward entered buy on hope of good news on euro employment data,as asia and london available were bullish and news hasnt come out yet profited 18

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950Been following the last post, and the ribbon for a while. You guys do understand that the E/J, G/J, and E/G aren't traded pairs like the E/$/J, and G/$ but are based, right? Then you realize when to exchange them and if not to exchange them if you understand this. Just asking...

[Rafalete68]

66950
Been following the thread for some time, and the last few post particularly. You guys do know that the E/J, G/J, and E/G are not traded pairs such as the E$ / J / $, and G$ but are derived, right? If you know this, then you realize when to trade them and if not to trade them. Simply asking... Yes thats why they are called crosses, thanks for coming.

[JaviNota]

66950Just found this on IFR.

1.9-2 Billion Coupon purchase.

BOSTON, Mar 1 (IFR) -
Operation Date: 03/01/2011 Operation Sort: Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time: 10:15 AM Close Time: 11:00 AM Settlement Date: 03/02/2011
This is from the fed site.The buy or purchase of Treasury securities on an outright basis adds or drains reserves available from the banking system. Such transactions are arranged on a regular basis to offset other modifications in the Federal Reserve#8217;s balance sheet in conjunction with efforts to keep conditions in the market for reserves consistent with the federal funds target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The sale or purchase of Treasury securities on a basis adds or drains reserves available from the banking system. Such transactions are arranged on a regular basis to offset other modifications in the Federal Reserve#8217;s balance sheet in conjunction with efforts to keep conditions in the market for reserves consistent with the federal funds target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

I wonder how that might affect the dollar?

[rocio.promero]

66950
It... Is... Done... I have been waiting a very long time for this =-RRB-

Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/h8ejiG5-BtA?origin=https://www.forum.com

[Juana.pkmixxar]

66950
Yes thats the reason why they are called crosses, thanks for coming. Just checking. Your discussion above appeared to indie something else. Fantastic trading to you!

[Pandegamba_]

66950
Just checking. Your conversation previously appeared to indie something else. Good trading to you! The world has changed a bit. They're based on several dealing platforms, but on most ECN's they are traded. I mean, what is the distinction between derived/traded whenever someone sells G/J big in an ECN, and the working banks adjust both G/U and U/J consequently (thus the derived influences the majors in this case, not the other way around)?

BTW, E/J isn't a derived pair anymore for quite a while (due to Japanese companies doing business in Europe, that makes a pure market).

And it does not even matter if it's synthetic or not. It all matters if you can exchange it or not. In the securities market statistical arbitrage is about locating co-integrated synthetic baskets. The don't see themselves because synthetics are traded by them.

[Rafalete68]

66950
Just checking. Your discussion above seemed to indie something different. Great trading to you! That's probably because you misunderstood what I was saying about the way I use the crosses.

Good trading for you as well.

[Ibercarltt]

66950I think following condition make today motion:
1. Today is 1st day of yearly. The market won't operate to far. Breakout place the sennt for this month.
2. Best sky of euro, cable are new highs - resistance.
3. Friday US nfp is now coming. A lot of bank's models are waiting for this information to work management bias out.

The genuine fundamental drivers under market are often top company secret of big guys. They never talk about before a tendency jog within 2/3 course. Then, they spoke, all media spoke, and they're ready to exit. This can be fx fundamental running manner in years and years. Actually, men that are big control and manage press well, differently, their positions may be jeopardy.

They can give out some little news A to push market a bit, then. Give another little news B to push back market.

What's the fundy drivers that big men use to bid euro or bid usd at moment? Top secret !!! It may be within DarkStar's new book.

One is convinced we'll know after this tendency complete in future.

[Ibercarltt]

66950
Algo trading is not merely quant. HFT is about order-flow - algos seeking and front-running order-flow. I know a few HFT trading egies that are basic, and it is all about watching the L2 book, becoming out once flow comes in, becoming in again if the flows dry up, and playing the range in the mean-time. It's all a positioning against order-flow game. Of course, they just care about mispricings on an in 4-hour interval.
Thanks Adal for this information. I'm interested to construct a EA to perform HFT. Before, I believe HFT commerce to bid and then trade every single bars when price jump and move. HFT can be employed in quiet time. Can you mean session's 4 hours? Or after London close US later session 4 hours?

[JaviNota]

66950Hey Guys,

Just wanted to voice my ideas up to now over using an Order flow mindset.

One thing which has become apparent from this thread is knowing who the participants are knowing how they operate and on what basis they operate. I believe that alot of these are offering a support or are speculative or maybe even both. Another thought is that the support offering participants are the ones who are time Dependant ie They have to do a trade instantly, whereas the participants can time there entries a bit more precisely.

From both groups I'd say the risky traders being hedge funds financial funds etc would be the hardest ones to try and sniper there order flow. The reason for this is because I believe these kind of participants view what a currency is value in a number of ways.

Now moving on to the participants that merely offer you a support of currency . These participants operate as an intermediary between Multi also there and national companies debts. One of these could be the case like Darkstar utilized in his Style of Forex brokers thread.

Quote:
The guy who buys a shiny new Eclipse more then likely will pay for it with US Dollars. Unfortunately Mitsubishi's factory workers in Japan should get their paychecks so at a certain point a conversion has to be made.

Darkstar cites these kind of support providers by stating.

Quote:
The lion's share of Forex trades are done as a function of international enterprise.

If most Forex trades are done as a part of international business then my thinking is I need to focus on the participants supplying these solutions and the programs they operate on. As an instance when we knew when the dollars for Mitsubishi's employees pay cheques were being changed in the fx marketI could assess market conditions and base a commerce on what impact that will have on price. Thinking along the same lines it simple to come up with countless motives for transactions similar to these is enormous. So from my study it seems that I need to be focusing on those participants that are making transactions as a function of enterprise. Listed below are a few names I am starting to look in:

Travelex
Moneycorp
HiFX
Worldfirst Uk Ltd

My next step would be to try and find out when and how these businesses are producing there trades and also by which approaches (Spot,Forward) and also the timescale that they have to create them. I can break in to there workplaces I don't believe that could help! If I do wind up discovering this information there'll be several if not hundreds of egies. I am starting to find the Technical analysis fallacy at a light and it's making me wonder a lot of systems within forum. There is a reason for every price movement in each market and that motive is Order Flow not a chart!

If anyone has ideas similar to mine please talk. Many hands make light work. https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316894.png

Best of luck,

James.

[layunny]

66950
My next thing would be to try and find out when and how these businesses are producing there transactions and by which approaches (Spot,Forward) as well as the timescale that they must create them.

Many bank-to-corp transactions are done with forwards. The banks then hedge the risk of that through an offsetting position in place. This is the reason why discussions about notional quantity are horribly.

To give you an example of the procedure... Mitsubishi needs to lock in an exchange rate for a 1m payroll 30 times out. They contract with Bank A to get a 1m 30 day. Bank A does not want to hold the risk, so that they hedge the forward with a place transaction with Bank B. Bank B is a market maker and they do not want to hold it . Subsequently it's offered around ECN Broker C in which Speculator D presumes the risk. The 1m in interest would became $3m in quantity.

So yeah a majority of forex transactions are a part of international business, but that's only because a majority of notional transaction volume is artificial.

To deal with your larger question/assertion: although its true that business transactions are a large portion of the quantity, that does not necessarily signify they're a large driver of price shift. At the end of the day there was just $1m in transaction requirement, so just $1m in liquidity will be swallowed. Without a reference point for how large this transaction is in comparison to the remainder of the market, it is not possible to estimate how large the effect would be, but I believe in most situations the price impact of business orders would be tiny.

You can confirm this for yourself by scanning IFR for large commercial need and watching the price effect as that need is filled.

[Pandegamba_]

66950
Thank you for this information. I'm interested to build a EA to perform HFT. Before, I believe HFT trade on high quantity time to bid and trade every single bars when price move and jump. Ok, HFT is employed in moment. Do you mean the 4 hours of Asian session? Or after London close US later session 4 hours? I was meaning that they trade short term - nearly all orders are below 4 hours, and the majority of them under 10 minutes.

Sorry to bring some bad news to you, however for HFT you want at least a million dollars to invest on programmers, trading and infrastructure account. For example, they use 10 Gigabit network cards which cost over $3.000.

[Rafalete68]

66950


Many bank-to-corp transactions are finished with forwards. The banks then hedge the risk of that forward through an offsetting position in place. This is why talks about volume are so horribly misguided.

[color=black][font=Verdana]To give you an instance of the process... Mitsubishi needs to lock in an exchange rate for a 1m payroll 30 days out. They contract with Bank A to get a 1m 30 day ahead. Bank A doesn't wish to hold the risk, so they hedge... I believe that is what they refer to as the inter-dealer Hot Potato effect in micro-structure studies.

They could also only attempt to fit it off against another customer with the an opposing direction of the exact same deal, I guess similar to a MM broker manages there books on the smaller transaction sizes, fitting off clients.

Glad to hear that the book is in completing touches DS.

[JaviNota]

66950Darkstar,

Thanks for your response and glad to listen to your books nearly finished, hope my name remains on the list. After reading your answer it becomes evident that I must start to concentrate on the larger corporate transactions. Grkfx's assignment was to learn what happened to this GBPUSD on the 1st March 2010 and 1st June 2010. Heres what I discovered.

1st March 2010.

Britain's Prudential will buy AIG's Asian arm for $35.5 billion at the insurance industry's biggest deal , helping the bailed-out U.S. group refund a big chunk of its taxpayer debt. (Ibtimes)

Speculation Britain could revive its strength buying programme, following the Bank of England said last week it may take such a measure if the economic prognosis worsened, continued to weigh the pound along with expectations of a sterling outflow from Prudential's (PRU.L) buy of this Asian component of AIG (AIG.N). (Reuters)

1st June 2010.

Sterling created a comeback against the US dollar now on speculation of an impending announcement in the Prudential it is abandoning its AIA takeover.

Prospects of this bargain being called off saw the Pru price jump 6 percent to 572p, and sterling rise to $1.459, from $1.450, since the currency was buoyed by demand from global investors needing to buy the UK insurer's shares. (Guardian)

HONG KONG/LONDON (Reuters) -- UK insurer Prudential has abandoned its plan to buy AIG's Asian lifestyle unit for $35.5 billion, leaving direction under fire along with the company facing a $659 million bill for collapse.

Prudential's move to drop out was widely anticipated after bailed-out U.S. giant American International Group refused to cut the price, turning down a last-ditch effort by Britain's largest insurer to appease shareholder concerns.

”We listened attentively to shareholders over the price and initiated a renegotiation of the terms with AIG. Regrettably, it hasn't been possible to reach agreement,” Prudential's chairman, Harvey McGrath, said in a statement.

”We're consequently withdrawing from the trade.” Http://blogs.reuters.com/clara-ferreira-marques/


These will be the size of transactions we will need to be aiming to rise on the rear of, as I am fairly certain market impact couldn't be prevented with a trade so large. The next issue to watch out for is how an order that dimension would have been made and we could have had pre warning relating to it. In these two cases it seems that the market began to move on speculation alone without a actual $35.5 Billion hit the market. Buy on rumor Sell on news surely springs to mind.


Deals like the Prudential one above do not come around every day but is there sufficient large size corporate deals carried out daily to be able to trade off or are we as order flow traders only able to operate on the knowledge that there maybe massive orders placed in defense of alternative barriers and push them.

The more and more I feel that the longer I visit the chart becoming useless apart in reference purposes.


James.

Ps Darkstar if you need a proof reader allow me to know https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316894.png

[tanabas]

66950whoa, someone actually did the job? I am impressed https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316894.png

[LuisYoGoLo]

108183i feel like an idiot reading a Few of these _0_EXTENSION Within my intellect

[edukrdoka]

108183
Deals like the Prudential one above don't come around every day but is there sufficient big size corporate deals carried out daily to be able to exchange off or are people as order flow traders just capable to operate on the knowledge that there maybe large orders placed in defense of option obstacles and push into them. For the time being, the knowledge of exotic choice levels/expiries is sufficient to keep me occupied.


The more and more I feel the more I see the chart getting useless apart from reference purposes. Agreed


Darkstar if you need a proof reader let me know Ditto https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316880.png

[layunny]

66950
[font=Calibri]Darkstar,

Thanks for your reply and glad to listen to your books nearly finished.... np

[JaviNota]

66950This is a classic film but worth the watch. It only goes to show what the traders could possibly be thinking.

Each of the components are all on youtube.

Inserted Video https://www.youtube.com/embed/q9brMMxI1RY?origin=https://www.forum.com

[Lissetlugo]

66950Corporate flows - for those wondering what that looks like - right today, EU, buying linked to Euro 2bn MA. It is not the only reason it is going up of course, but explains the retraces are almost non-existent.

Good old school film RedB btw.

[Rafalete68]

66950Corporate flows?? From what I get, I don't think thats what we should be looking at, for the most part. Maybe something to consider When it's some deal.

[Lissetlugo]

66950Easy! I am not saying you exchange that (how do you? It's only 2bn and only smooths out a couple of bumps) but thought it was worth mentioning as it was right this second.

[Rafalete68]

66950
Easy! I'm not saying you exchange that (how do you? It is only 2bn and just smooths out a few lumps ) but thought it was worth mentioning as it had been right this second. Well 2bl can allow it to move a few I'd think....

Is what you're talking about:

1145 GMT [Dow Jones] The euro is certainly back in favour Wednesday regardless of the risk-aversion drivers who weighed on it being present. The Saudi stock market has shed another 5 percent this session and European equity markets are trading 1 percent reduced, gold is close to record highs and oil close. MA associated buying has seemingly come to the euro's rescue using the market chat being of Middle East buying to the tune of around EUR2billion. EUR/USD hit 1.3843, EUR/JPY 113.40, EUR/GBP 0.8488 and EUR/CHF 1.2811 in Europe, all highs for the day. ([email protected])

Anyhow I didn't trade last night but I recall hearing big bids at 3760, then later on, speak to leveraged accounts selling in to it, using a swiss name on the bid around there.

You didn't need any of the to understand it's a good buy down there in the event that you ask me.

[Fer1188]

66950Just heading into school so I don't have time to post much, but that I believe corporate activity, like MA and investments might be a highly effective instrument in our order flow arsenal...

LONDON/NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - U.S. power company PPL Corp (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=PPL.N) is buying German utility E.ON AG's (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=EONGn.DE) UK power networks for 3.5 billion pounds ($5.6 billion) in cash to create one of the largest electricity distributors in Britain.
PPL, that beat a rival bid from Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-Shing according to people familiar with the matter, could also presume 500 million pounds ($800 million) of debt.
What could you do? Https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1529316880.png

The EUR/USD is something to do with Qatar and Spain into the top of my knowledge.

Reunite soon guys! Exciting stuff!