Sultans of Swing

[azok68]

This thread is dedied to Swing / Position Trading of all Financial Instruments

The emphasis being on market analysis and idea generation

Generally, I consider swing trading to consist of a Daily Chart, but H4 is ok to get a more granular perspective and timing related discussions (shorter time frames are also ok, however, please use them very sparingly )

Posting charts with markups is strongly encouraged!
(due to the character of this thread, it's also encouraged that you just post a link to previous post when referencing a commerce idea/analysis posted in the past)

It does not matter what school of analysis you would like, all thoughts are welcome (particularly if you came up with it )

Discussions about Global Macro Strategies and Economics/Geopolitical developments are also encouraged
(provided we remain civil and keep it in opportunistic context)

Rooks and Experts are both welcome, and hopefullywe can all make some cash in these markets!

Cheers and good luck!

https://www.youtube.com/embed/h0ffIJ7ZO4U?origin=https://www.forum.com

(extra content coming soon... maybe)

[azok68]

quote I'm not so convinced we bottomed yet.... Maybe one more leg into south IMO Maybe not, but we are certainly at a critical juncture... when we go much lower, it might change the bullish outlook in a material manner

I'm building long positions at the current levels, with a tight stop if we get an abrupt jolt...

in a timing perspective, I remain bullish until mid next month, unless I'm proven wrong! (hope not)

[azok68]

US Dollar Rally: through the looking glass

(among several) fundamentals: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-19/gundlach-warns-extreme-treasury-short-bets-risk-pain-on-squeeze

USD Composite:
Weekly
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15351479751461698895.jpg

Daily
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147978312620934.jpg

[azok68]

Entrance pending trigger Amount

EU
H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15351479851768106728.jpg

T1: 1165

[azok68]

quote closed for 100 pips she seems like she would like to roar... monitoring

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15351479331609741493.jpg

[Davaseoxn]

Hi, do you have any idea about sp500?

I mean, we topped or this is only correction?

IMO is a correction.

Thank you a lot of

[azok68]

hi, do you have any idea about sp500? I mean, we topped or that is correction? IMO is a correction. Thank you so much I am buying dips

heres my last article: link

it is possible to chase the path of updates back and see the following timing pivot (late April on per week, early April on daily)

goals adjusted to the lower/mid 1900's

[azok68]

Price Relativism: Upgrade (from here)

BTFD (soon)

Euro Yen vs SP 500 Futures (continuous)

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15194992711707986198.jpg

[azok68]

JPY Futures: followup (from here) Farewell General Custer... H4 picture General Custer is becoming a stubborn bugger!

Holding to this line, and beating back Sitting Bull... he has certainly won the day

but, most of us know how this story endsthe script has already been written...

I will post updated charts over the weekend

good fortune!

[Davaseoxn]

quote I'm buying dips heres my last article: link you can chase the trail of updates straight back and watch that the next time pivot (late April on per week, early April on daily) targets corrected to the lower/mid 1900's
I am not so convinced we bottomed yet....

Perhaps one more leg to south

IMO

[azok68]

There are some fascinating observations concerning gold on his website, this is a snip out of something that he published on friday...

Hedge Fund Short Covering in Gold is the Story
full post: http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/03/hedge-fund-short-covering-in-gold-is.html

This narrative simply will not die as it keeps occurring - hedge funds continue to cover short positions to an extent far exceeding the amount of freshnew buying that they are doing.
Last week they covered ( shut out) 4,675 short positions. They outdid themselves since they covered a whopping 5,248 shorts made up of futures and option positions! On the long side, they reduced their exposure. It's too bad that we cannot see what occurred from Wednesday through Friday. My view is that today's powerful rally through overhead chart resistance cleaned out some more of the positions in a big way.
Let's again put this in perspective - at the onset of this year, the hedgies were sitting with a total of 72,571 outright short positions, futures and options combined. As of this past Tuesday, that number has shrunk to a mere 21,073 or even a reduction of 51,498 shorts.
Over this exact same period, the number of outright longs has increased from 106,675 to its current number of 144,080, for an increase of 37,405 futures and options positions.
Again, the obvious alyst for gold this season has so far been short covering as the prominent characteristic one of the biggest specifiions on Earth.

[azok68]

things that make you go hmm (aka: wag the dog)

through forexlive.com:
China into winden yuan trading group
17 hours ago | March 15th, 2014 19:38:55 GMT by
China#8217;s slow grind toward a market-based economy continues with an announcement on Saturday that China will expand the yuan trading ring to two% on either side of the daily benchmark rate from 1%. The band had been widened in 2012 and 2007.
I don#8217;t expect this to have an impact on markets on Monday but it#8217;s a indiion that it won#8217;t be too long before FX traders possess CNY on their screens.

Chinese Yuan vs Gold
Weekly
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1519499275834578341.jpg

[azok68]

Chinese Yuan:
overextended?

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15194992771968437792.jpg
Weekly
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15194992791069980038.jpg

[azok68]

Ukraine and Russia agree truce as Crimea votes in referendum
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/16/ukraine-russia-truce-crimea-referendum

[azok68]

... a few weeks old, but very relevant, and a highly recommended read...

The New New Great Game: Geography, Energy, The Dollar And Gold

post: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-28/new-new-great-game-geography-energy-dollar-and-gold
full pdf: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/12/the New New Great Game.pdf

[OXRAYNLATIN]

Gidday DHT

Big question will EUR/US float through 140 or not

Everybody will close there longs an it'll fly through the roof.

[azok68]

Gidday DHT Big query will EUR/US float through 140 or not Everyone will close there longs an it will fly through the roof. Its a widely debated subject...

I think the euro has a few legs here, it might break that level, but if not it retains is the big question mark... lots of big banks are putting sell recommendations on this currency, using a goal to the low 1.20's... so far they're all suffering from foot-in-mouth syndrome, but I guess that can change if Draghi decides that the inflation target will be missed by a margin wide enough to justify stimulus...

its big question on everyone's mind... I dont know the answer, but I can't fight the trend and get in brief once I see no evidence...

[azok68]

Dollar Yen: followup (from here)
BTFD (if we get there)

Daily
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1519499282278657465.jpg

[Davaseoxn]

quote Not, but we're certainly at a vital juncture... if we go much lower, it can change the bullish perspective in a material manner I am building long positions in the current rates, with a tight stop in case we get an abrupt jolt... in a time perspective, I stay bullish until mid month, unless I am proven wrong! (hope not)
another huge correction.... market is SO NERVOUS...

[azok68]

AAAH

my old thread...
how I missed thee!

Hopefully I'll be posting here !

[azok68]

What George Soros Taught Stan Druckenmiller

George Soros has a philosophy I also have embraced: How to build long-term returns is by way of preservation of capital and home runs. You can be a lot more competitive once you're making great profits. Many managers, once they're up 30 or even 40 percent, will reserve their entire year [i.e., trade very cautiously for the rest of the calendar year so as to not jeopardize the very good return that has been realized]. The best way to attain tmly superior long-term returns would be to grind it out until you're up 30 or even 40 percent, and then if you have the convictions, go to get a 100 per year. If years, it's possible to assemble a few near-100 per cent years and prevent down, then returns can be achieved by you.
I've learned many things from him, but perhaps the most important is the fact that it's not if you're right or wrong that is important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. The few times that Soros has criticized me was when I was really right on a market and did not maximize the chance. Soon after I had begun working for Soros, I was very bearish on the dollar and place to a large short position from the Deutsche mark. The situation had begun going in my favor, and that I felt rather proud of myself. Soros came into my workplace, and we talked about the trade.

Link to first article: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2014/09/what-george-soros-taught-stan-druckenmiller/

[azok68]

SP 500: ACHTUNG BABY!

Testing LOOONG term service...

Daily
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15194992841011626880.jpg

That other line is another 130 points south of this...

[azok68]

didnt have much time to post a week, but this Transaction is Busy:

GA
H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147981443226025.jpg

Goal: 168xx

[azok68]

took this last week, link to original post: https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-system-and-egies/970-reversal-candlesticks.html

still Functioning, still Legitimate

UC
H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147991836560601.jpg

T1: 129xxx

[azok68]

entrance pending trigger level EU H4 image T1: 1165 amounts were not triggered and price got away

nevertheless, it gives me more conviction that my analysis was right

the ideal path on H1 can generate a fantastic entrance point!

Data starts today, fantastic luck!

https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147995383828981.jpg

[azok68]

trade is active

perhaps one of THE greatest setups ive been tracking

UC
D1
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147998179873864.jpg

[azok68]

Cable
textbook short

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15351480011856024364.jpg

[azok68]

took this last week, connect to original article: https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-system-and-egies/411-euro-waits-french-decision.html still working, still legitimate UC H4 image T1: 129xxx closed out for 140 pips. Will keep an eye

[azok68]

XAUUSD

looks Mature

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15351480091808796873.jpg

[azok68]

quote amounts were not triggered and price got away nonetheless, it gives me more conviction that my analysis was right the perfect path on H1 could generate a good entrance point! Data starts today! picture she really got away!

I took a small brief yesterday in the supply line, but closed it out for 10 pips because I didnt enjoy the price action

when the retracement plays out, that is the setup im tracking (fingers crossed)

shot a small brief at 115646 targeting the fib need amount (less than 1% risk)

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535148012975487159.jpg

[azok68]

UJ
juicy

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535148015798139658.jpg

[azok68]

UJ juicy H4 picture
I posted this a few days ago on a different thread and it appears to be playing outside to confirm the short UJ story

Yen Futures
H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535148019930029571.jpg

[azok68]

Cable textbook short H4 picture closed for 100 pips

she seems like she wants to roar...

[azok68]

DXY
H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535148022929656748.jpg

[azok68]

Kiwis
dangerous but it could work! (depends on the USD Index)
H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535148025772021227.jpg

[rttiherediay]

quote tbh I took a brief almost 2 weeks ago, and its been faffing about between being positive and negative. Atm, following the action yesterday, im close to my stop loss, but it hasn't hit yet fingers crossed my analysis holds up... I'd be looking for 108xxx the swap is up me! be patience my friend. You need to follow along with major thread for pair for more accurate signal. Dont push yourself too hard.
You might need to take a break for a while.

[azok68]

quote be patience my friend. You need to follow major thread for pair for more accurate signal. Dont push yourself too hard. You may have to have a rest for a while. Cheers friend

[azok68]

quote tracking H4 image I have been viewing and tracking this, and submitted it on the cable thread a couple of days back

if the channel stays, the above mentioned setup may take us to 133xx

GBP Composite
Daily
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147935405528850.jpg

[azok68]

XAUUSD appears ripe H4 picture first high low?

Worth monitoring

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147937956132139.jpg

[azok68]

DXY H4 image the arrangement appears to be confirmed, and resulted in a number of my setups being actuated

however, prior to the dollar bears get too excited, we need to have across this major demand line and divide through the channel

next week ought to be interesting

H4
https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/15351479392061351537.jpg

play safe

https://www.cliqforex.com/attachments/1535147927.png

[azok68]

Gold: Upgrade (from here)

Pattern Neglected

I still maintain my bearish Perspective on gold, Time pivots Could be /- 4 bars, therefore, I advise against buying this instrument... I dont recommend shorting it just yet, no point picking tops... short on a Lesser high Following the breakdown (Overdue March/early April)

If You're holding longs for a few weeks (like myself), its a good time to lock up profits and get out...

I will post updated charts Shortly