adridado
02-26-2005, 03:49 AM
The US dollar is very likely to stay caught in the brief term between return consideration and aspects. The Federal Reserve will continue to boost interest and a quicker rate of tightening can not be ruled out before year. The dollar will continue to be jeopardized by fears and present account anxieties within a change out of dollar reserves with Asian central banks. Because banks reduced the proportion of reserves held in 22, Dollar rallies are most likely to be fulfilled with selling pressure. It's also the case it'll be vulnerable in the event the information dissipates and that the dollar is very likely to require a steady source favourable news to maintain its position or if the Fed has been made to halt rate rises. This is very likely to be a danger over the next half, particularly if oil prices stay over the US$50 p/b level. The dollar is in a position to weaken to a perspective, but currency appreciation may curbs depreciation against the Euro. There's also scope for a rally on a 2-3 month perspective.
Market investigation
The dollar dropped sharply on Tuesday after the US holiday and also the US money dipped to a low of 1.3270 prior to a small recovery. There were fears over a change from dollar reserves throughout the week after reports that South Korea will diversify its reserves. The US money stays sensitive to this matter of reservations diversifiion. Worries to get a change in reserves from the dollar will last, but markets will stay nervous although the government denied they'd sell bucks. A reaction has been to the US bond market that will maintain anxieties over a decrease in US Treasury.
It is true that the accumulation of dollar reserves will probably probably be slower. The problem is that the dollar is very likely to be offered on any rallies that are substantial and this can make it problematic for the money to sustain rallies that are substantial. Currency appreciation stay a risk in the medium term. Profits would often relieve pressure, although the US dollar will be exposed to a foundation.
The US economic data was usually near expectations throughout the week, '' The headline consumer price index was marginally below expectations at 0.1%, although the underlying rate was consistent with expectations. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8percent from 3.1percent on a revision to exports, although the inflation figures from the GDP report were little altered.
The rate of US interest rate rises will remain a significant focal point for the US money. This past week's signs indie this was the impression provided by the moments to the February meeting and that the Fed can maintain a coverage that is measured. The dangersare skewed towards a position given that inflation fears have increased.
This service will face a struggle, although the dollar will continue to draw support from the interest factors. Oil costs will have to be watched in the brief term after the push in costs back over US$51 p/b. Petroleum prices will suppress demand and there'll also be several worries that the Fed might need to think about a pause in rate hikes if energy prices remain strong. The next half wills increase over.
The IFO report was disappointing The data indied that the inflation rate may have improved in February and also the ECB stays nervous with oil prices increasing, particularly more than inflation. The ECB won't wish to decrease a few unease more than inflation and interest rates, particularly with money supply expansion. Capital account information and the account was powerful for December, strengthening support for the Euro.
Analysis provided by http://www.investica.co.uk
Market investigation
The dollar dropped sharply on Tuesday after the US holiday and also the US money dipped to a low of 1.3270 prior to a small recovery. There were fears over a change from dollar reserves throughout the week after reports that South Korea will diversify its reserves. The US money stays sensitive to this matter of reservations diversifiion. Worries to get a change in reserves from the dollar will last, but markets will stay nervous although the government denied they'd sell bucks. A reaction has been to the US bond market that will maintain anxieties over a decrease in US Treasury.
It is true that the accumulation of dollar reserves will probably probably be slower. The problem is that the dollar is very likely to be offered on any rallies that are substantial and this can make it problematic for the money to sustain rallies that are substantial. Currency appreciation stay a risk in the medium term. Profits would often relieve pressure, although the US dollar will be exposed to a foundation.
The US economic data was usually near expectations throughout the week, '' The headline consumer price index was marginally below expectations at 0.1%, although the underlying rate was consistent with expectations. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8percent from 3.1percent on a revision to exports, although the inflation figures from the GDP report were little altered.
The rate of US interest rate rises will remain a significant focal point for the US money. This past week's signs indie this was the impression provided by the moments to the February meeting and that the Fed can maintain a coverage that is measured. The dangersare skewed towards a position given that inflation fears have increased.
This service will face a struggle, although the dollar will continue to draw support from the interest factors. Oil costs will have to be watched in the brief term after the push in costs back over US$51 p/b. Petroleum prices will suppress demand and there'll also be several worries that the Fed might need to think about a pause in rate hikes if energy prices remain strong. The next half wills increase over.
The IFO report was disappointing The data indied that the inflation rate may have improved in February and also the ECB stays nervous with oil prices increasing, particularly more than inflation. The ECB won't wish to decrease a few unease more than inflation and interest rates, particularly with money supply expansion. Capital account information and the account was powerful for December, strengthening support for the Euro.
Analysis provided by http://www.investica.co.uk