End of Carry Trade
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thread: End of Carry Trade

  1. #1

    End of Carry Trade

    Good day all

    If I'm correct, it's the end of cary trade

    What do you think? Is it possible?

    Yen is heading 109 afterward 101.69 by the end of October 2008

    Many thanks

  2. #2
    I dont understand why all carry trades must end. USD established, yes, but maybe not nzd, aud along with others.

  3. #3
    I dont understand why all carry trades must end. USD established, yes, but maybe not nzd, aud along with others.
    Any motives??? Or it is a guessing,

    Technical investigations lead to fndementals, If I have seen a break of that trend , I'll wave my hands at Carry traders

    Thank you for your reply

  4. #4
    Member ina99's Avatar
    98
    As long as the interest rates are favorable the trade won't finish, because cash always ultimatley flows to where it's treated best. It might need to take interest rate changes to finish the carry trades. . It is actually that simple.

  5. #5
    Hey clusterwise

    ya I tend to say yes, time to whatch risk aversion however im in doubt on dollar yenits time to whatch every base curency illustration against danish kroner or euro

  6. #6
    Senior Member patatas08's Avatar
    114
    Draw another trend line....somewhere about 115....that is much more important than this .

    And interest rates will confirm that this keeps moving. The BoJ appears somewhat less likely to raise rates at the end of the year.

    Frankly, this could be a chance to buy inexpensive, but I am waiting for some kind of stability. (although Friday was basically an unchanged moment. When you take a look at history, it takes a few days in order for this to keep rolling.)

  7. #7
    Junior Member Gduard's Avatar
    26
    When you look at GBP, NZD, and AUD vs the JPY they're all overpriced so to talk versus the JPY. So we can see 1000 pips fall in these pairs and still see it at very significant levels. The carry trade won't end not versus the AUD in my opinion, but I will see the NZD actually dropping far further on account of the interest rate profile changing from active to apartment for the forseeable future.

  8. #8
    As long as the interest rates are positive the trade won't finish, because cash constantly ultimatley flows to where it is treated best. It might have to take interest rate changes to finish the carry trades. . It really is that simple.
    A egy where an investor sells a specific currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader with this egy attempts to catch the gap between the rates - that may often be considerable, based on the amount of leverage that the investor chooses to use. - Investopedia

    Agree with here. As long as there are gaps in interest rates you'll have carry trades. When you have a look at carry trades you will see there is obviously a basket, get the ratios of these pairs at the basket right and you'll make money. Not for the scalpers and get rich quick crowd though.

    Quite wave for the trend traders which are in the wrong direction. Not that there are anything wrong with following the trend - only as you win, sometimes you lose.

  9. #9
    Any way I was siting a sunday planning upcomming week I was sitting here and seeing the Yen and this resembles a dangerous cocktail yen is strong among most currencys any conservative notions?

  10. #10
    Provided that the interest rates are positive the trade won't end, because money always ultimatley flows to where it is treated best. It would need to take interest rate changes to end the carry trades. . It really is that easy.
    That's what I am thinking too, higher interest rate differentials = carry trade. It may be over for usd based trades but seem at NZD and many others, there is still great enough reason for those to continue rallying.

    But by the way, if the carry trade is over, what next? Where will the easy money come from today?

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