End of Carry Trade -
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thread: End of Carry Trade

  1. #61
    There has not been a new fad there for years, there is no reason to presume something is gonna change now
    . . .but items can change at any moment, why suppose it is going to carry on just as before. IMHO the longer something was set up the more likely it is to change ahead of some other items.

  2. #62
    Senior Member patatas08's Avatar
    114
    Keep an eye on 105, as that is where the Bank Of Japan intervened last time.

    Will they succeed? Is the Fed eventually going to do something to help? We shall see.

    It would not surprise me to see a coordinated move on the part of a few central banks relatively soon in more than 1 pair.

    Recall all that Injected Liquidity a few weeks back? As it so happens, something like 6 or 5 Central Banks admit to becoming involved. However, they all said it Wasn't intended as such, all acted independently.

    Uh-huh. (I'm willing to bet that someone out there was dumb enough to think this also.)

    EUR at 150 would certainly draw the attention of many of these, and obvious 105 is something BoJ does not need to see.

    I do believe this is the passing of this carry trade as we knew it. There's more to FX than that dumb swap, after all. (I think we are going to see a massive outflow of retail customers based on this alone, since it may actually take work today.)

    That I can only imagine how those Freedom Rocks traders are doing nowadays. If there are any with their accounts still intact.

    None the less, we don't care either way, since there is always chance out there, even though it does not demand the Yen.

    My broker does not possess the Swedish Krone accessible, therefore that I don't know how that is doing up to the carry trade....but again, I still don't care. . .it all becomes dollars eventually. (For me at least.)

    Happy searching.

    Clockwork

  3. #63
    Keep an eye on 105, as that is where the Bank Of Japan intervened last moment.

    Will they succeed? Is the Fed eventually going to do something to help? We shall see.

    Lt;snipgt;
    Okay, you will find several backing a short to ~101. Surely the BoJ might not like the Yen to be too powerful, but there are a couple of things working against them.

    1) China is swapping USD for Yen. That is a shed-load of dollars that the BoJ is going to have to buy to keep their currency favorably priced.

    Two ) that the local Japanese market is gradually picking up. As their rates start to increase the interest to carry traders will wane and that is going to precipitate a huge un-winding.

  4. #64
    .. .but items can change at any moment, why suppose it is going to carry on as before. IMHO the more something has been set up the more likely it's to change before some other items.
    Sure this is true but only for people that are ready to stand aside and watch but we aren't talking about such people, right?

    So that I presonally am talking about how to trade now and in in the very near future and taking long positions with JPY on any pairs except USD/JPY will be pure gaming

  5. #65
    Carry trade are not dead yet. . .but it was in downtrend since feb 2007. . .ex:in the event of carry trade turn upward calm available on market. . .you might not see g/j over 232.50! Before next huge drop!also if japan sink to pacific as a result of earthquake somewhere around 2012. .it could easy reatch 350! But additionally, it goes to 150 if the next big one occurring in california.

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