thread: End of Carry Trade

Good day all

When I'm correct, it is the end of cary exchange

What do you think? Is it possible?

Yen is heading 109 then 101.69 by the end of October 2008

Many thanks

Excuse me, but what I really believe is the USD/JPY is not in a long term uptrend, unlike, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY and other JPY crosses using high interest rates .

I have attached 3 charts of the cited 3 pairs and the major trendline can be seen on each chart. Just the breach of these trend lines can make you fret about the carry trades. Other wise, everything is going fine...


Thanks,

Nader

Hi

A bit off topic, but I was wondering how exactly carry trade works - Let us say hypothetically I just take $1m loan in Japan, and invest it in some kind of Iceland / New Zealand bonds or anything... So, if there's no movement (hypothetically!) In both currency pairs, I will get my 10 percent or more... But let's say it moves... Can I shield my investment working with a contract on currency rate? Is there such a thing?
And say there's, if there was a move , what would be there damage to my investment? Can I lose money or only get less yield?

Have a Fantastic weekend!

Hello

A bit off topic, but I was wondering how carry trade works - Let us say hypothetically that I just take $1m loan in Japan, and spend it in some sort of Iceland / New Zealand bonds or whatever... So, if there's no motion (hypothetically!) In both currency pairs, I'll receive my 10% or more... But let us say it transfers... Can I defend my investment using a contract on currency rate? Is there anything?
And say there is, if there was a move against me, what would be there damage to my investment? Can I lose money or only get less yield?

Have a good weekend!

You eliminate money and yield. You can buy a contract on currency rates, or buy bonds to market iirc.

Point one. Monthlies

Recently watched the break to the upside of a long term triangle.

Current drop seems to be heading for a retest of said triangle. If triangle breaks to the downside, then possibility is bearish in moderate term, but a break of the rising trendline at around 110 will be required for confirmation of a long term change in trend.

The chart also reveals several occasions in the last two years in which the cross plummeted far more than what we have witnessed in the last week

Note specifically the giant trap pub in 2006, which (using elliot waves - which I hate to do) turned out to be the low of the three wave retrace of an earlier 5 wave drive.

It turned out to be only a retrace of the current long term trend.

Isn't your breakout a little too close to the conclusion of the triangle? Maybe it's likelihood signal that is low?

Fantastic day alll

is not a good day???


500 pips and the price didn't move yet

It's likely to be a Great old story, End of cary trade

do you still remember our targets

Many thanks

Good day all

When I'm correct, it is the end of cary exchange

What do you think? Is it possible?

Yen is heading 109 then 101.69 by the end of October 2008

Many thanks

Totally agree with 109 now since we dropped 115.

We moved these previous 200 pips to 113 quicker than I expected. 109, then 101.70 if 109 has been missing. Yes.

Https://www.cliqforex.com/trading-sy...iders-den.html for your own chart and
https://www.cliqforex.com/general-fo...shift-pst.html
additionally hit that TL I submitted now.

Seems to me like it's end today.

There has to have been a lot of positions unwound today. If they are all done then we will see some sideways move until a second trend establishes itself.

Thank you Gmak for ur nice analyses

in my side

SELL 119.00, ADD 120.25 ST= 122.50
TG= 116.50
TG2=109.00
TG3=101.69

there's a possibility of trunion, so when the price reach 109 we'll monitor the movement of the price

great fortune

Many thanks

Congratulation fellas

Secondly target struck

are you ready to get the third one

Many thanks.

Be careful whose shooting another side of the market positions. What I find is that a break of a significant level and operate down to acquire each of the retail traders in. Bear in mindthat people looking at charts like this demand retail traders to take the opposite side of their positions since they are trading on that scale.

Monthly wedge is not broken till its broken. We are sitting on it.

http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/3278/uj112107xg3.gif

I'm very very bullish on yen. Anyone affirms me Because american moentary coverage is so stupid and they will reduce IR and make bullshit on all markets. And BOE will reduce IR (they are in larger shit then US economy) and Japan TOPIX lost 20% this year and japanese is going to need to do something. WAKE UP GOD DAMN!!!!!!