End of Carry Trade -
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thread: End of Carry Trade

  1. #21
    95294
    are you talking about those ratios?
    Yep, that is 1 way to look at it. Another forum which talks a lot about carry trades would be your one at OANDA.

    Most of the brokers have a write-up about interest rates on their websites with examples. Trick is to get everything lined up in ways you feel comfortable with. Over at OANDA there's a wonderful interest calculator that can give you a feeling for what's happening:
    http://www.oanda.com/products/fxmath/interest.shtml

  2. #22
    953301 Structure (s) Great day all

    1:00 Pm GMT handed and 118.00 has not been broken, but time always can tell a lot of words

    It is a Contracting triangl and if we look to the chart, it means that Asia session is going to have very

    quick and lengthy profitable movement, '' I am going to add another contract ( SELL 119.00 ) since the

    picture is quite clear now to me

    Many thanks

  3. #23
    95328
    Don't forget the carry trade isn't only about interest rates, but about the rate fo return.

    A lot of the YEN being sold to buy AUD, NZD, GBP and EUR have been spent in assets demoninated in those currencies, so in case it appears that there is weakness or volatility in those asset groups afterward YEN may be repatriated.

    It is worth keeping an eye on additional investement groups if trading anything predicated on varry trades.

    Eternally the recent correction is very little on a long term scale, and I would anticipate a blow-off shirt when this eventually endings, which I really don't think we have had yet. GBPJPY may hit 260 before the trend changes with any significance. This is supported by my definition that market moves are faster when alterations to the most important trend happen, very similar to what we've experienced in the last few days.

    As always, DYOR.

    G-Man
    Good thinking

    Clusterwise: The carry trade was a growing phenomenon over the past several YEARS. To attempt to pick its precise end predicated on a fleeting look at some charts is similar to trying to pin the tail. It doesn't help that the fundamentals seem to be contrary to you also.... On the other hand... the subprime problem does not seem to be going away and it could lead to volatility across many places and strength classes. Volatility isn't the carry trader's buddy. Regardless, Make Certain you don't risk too much margin on this, or any other trade just because the charts get you all hot:
    I am going to add another contract

  4. #24
    95328
    Good thinking

    : The carry trade was an increasing phenomenon within the past several YEARS. Pick and to try the finish of it according to a look at a few charts is like trying to pin the tail on the donkey. It doesn't help that the fundamentals seem to be contrary to you also.... On the other hand... the subprime problem does not seem to be going away and it could lead to volatility across many places and strength classes. Volatility isn't the carry trader's buddy. In any case, be certain you don't risk a lot of margin on this, or any other trade just because the charts get you all hot:
    chart = human plogic

    it's not only a matter of 5 phrases, those human are generating this chart, you need to understand thier plogy, it's tat simple but the path is tough.

  5. #25
    95328Good day all

    100 pips

    if we Split 118.00, the game Begins

    Many thanks

  6. #26
    95328Well, I've certainly made my very own many bucketloads of pips shorting the yen crosses throughout this correction however, that is still all it's... a correction...

    In fact, this unwind still is not even as deep as the one that happened in February of this year, although I do think it will be.

    In the long term, on each and every chart I look at, the prejudice remains to the upside, however. The problem with banking on that is that not a lot of individuals have the bank rolls to sit on 2000 or even a 1000 pip reduction when waiting to take over once more. Particularly once you take into account the leverage being applied to those pips.

    I believe we are more inclined to see 300 from the GBP/JPY this season than we are to watch 200, although awaiting this tide of risk aversion to bottom out, I'll be happy to cash in on all the people who are addicted to the carry trade.

    There's a time and a place for everything and this just is not the time to be going long for the sake of rollover interest.

    The carry trade, as it applies to the Yen crosses, is far from dead but it's certainly at a holding pattern at the moment. We should all appreciate this situation for exactly what it's... a fantastic bottom to fish.

  7. #27
    95328well in my point of view g/j may be the biggest loser as g/u was so hight plus some divergence could bring some news fron. . .so this may add things to g/j downside....On other facet u/j may discover some support on account of how some risker out come asset goes into treasury. . .that what gbp dont have!So at last we may see g/u down!

  8. #28
    Member ars1j's Avatar
    44
    953281 Attachment(s) Big un.

    BTW, there is no isolation. If carry dies, all perish.

    All elements.

    That's EURCHF, GBPCHF, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, etc, etc, etc..

    As clearly a cross has 2 parts - USDJPY and the Yielding pair. So BOTH are offered at exactly the exact same time when it melts.

    There's no isolation.

  9. #29
    Member ars1j's Avatar
    44
    95328 DJI Futures - almost 100% correlated with carry lately

  10. #30
    Junior Member caroldc98's Avatar
    3
    95328Carry trade will last unless the interest rate gap is present, but slowly decrease. I feel that Yen will be more powerful against its own crosses for years and the coming months , possibly. Japanese land prices are rising at fastest pace in 15 decades. The interest rate will be slowly increased by BOJ for certain in the next few years.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...-64AC6C8001AD}

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