Americas status in 2058 -
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thread: Americas status in 2058

  1. #11
    Thanks everybody for your responses and votes up to now. I have to admit I didn't expect so many to vote OTHER. BMW, your selection has been explained by you, but there are many who haven't. I'd really like to hear from the rest of you that voted OTHER what your reasons are for this particular selection.

    Blueruby, I know we disagree about whether global warming is the cause or the effect of the CO2 levels in the air, which is alright, but it will lead us to the exact same conclusion. The northern states and Canada are likely to see improved agricultural returns as the world heats up. Additionally, it will open up a new land to farming, which is currently marginal. In Europe, things will probably be quite the opposite - as northern ice melts it interferes with the Gulf Stream that has a warming effect on Europe. As a result, ironically, global warming might indicate a colder Europe, with severe impacts on European agricultural returns and energy consumption tendencies.

    , I thought you could disagree with me at some point on the way. Please put forward your reasons as to why you disagree.

    , I believed how to make money out of this was apparent. To paraphrase Jim Rogers, Buy agriculture. You don't see many 29 year old ethanol farmers driving around in E85 Maseratis. Yet.

    , yes the world is much more complied than that. I could go into far more detail on each topic I've listed here and I still wouldn't be anywhere close to a complete description of the world. I'd be a fool. Nonetheless, these are the fundamental dynamics of what I presume is going on and why.

    Plutonite, I appreciate your mathematically accurate argument. There are a number of heavyweight events which could completely throw my opinion off. A number of them are:
    1. A real chance is these source wars could turn nuclear.
    2. Climate change could accelerate and have particularly devastating effects on the US breadbasket, ifying America's agricultural advantage.
    3. An alternative to oil could take the world by storm and erase our oil addiction. With cheap, clean, plentiful energy all over, America would not feel the necessity to constrain world food supplies and everybody would live happily ever after in a hippy-like daze.

    A number of other things which nobody has even thought of could come up and push the world off this route, no doubt, but I do believe this is the route we're on at this time, and such a heavyweight occasion would likely make this whole conversation completely inconsequential. Provided that we're on the path though, it is still applicable, and so worthy of conversation. You can not go through life only by looking a few feet ahead for fear of not having the ability to see anything outside that. Of course the further away something is the less apparent it is, but it does not make it a waste of time to appear.

    Clockwork, as far as I know the Colorado oil is futile for now (it's in fact not oil). The amount of resources required to extract anything out of it far exceeds the benefits of the extracted product.

    As far as corruption in China and Russia, yes it's rampant, but there are benefits to central planning. Centrally planned societies are far better able to produce abrupt changes when necessary, with no requirement for years of disagreement to get in the way. Unfortunately, in most cases, the central planners themselves are usually either corrupt or inept (or both). This is the point where the benefits of flames come from.

    It isn't a matter of that we would rather have lead the world, the US, China, or Russia, it is about who will lead the world. If you're living everywhere, and sane, you'd probably want the US to become your dad over Russia. Fortunately, it appears the US will stay in control in the long run.

    Yes, the Swedes are OK. Their asses are not as frigid as the Norwegians'.

  2. #12
    Junior Member Dimeruben's Avatar
    27
    I Hunted for the U.S.. Why? These large oil prices is creating the average Joe six-pack his energy requirements. And so are the auto makers, appliance makers, law makers and everybody in between. Which will result in less oil consumption in the future. Just just how will that benefit the U.S? There is this place from the middle of nowhere called western Kansas and that entire area of the plains in which the breeze blows 24/7 and it strikes hard. And since the population increases so does the demand for food and the U.S is among the largest agriculture nations in the world next to China. When the U.S farmers become more efficient (that's already starting to occur ) they simply may over take China in that market. You can not survive by eating oil. The U.S already has the infrastructure in place today they simply have to focus more on efficiency. Besides I believe 2058 is too soon for China to over take because the worlds main super power. However, as always I could be totally wrong. And remember the U.S has all the tech rights, the majority of which are being used for military purposes or sitting on a back shelf in a few subterranean bunker in a little city outside Roswell New Mexico. (where would you believe lasers came out?)
    For those who are non believers
    Look at the advancement of technology throughout the history of humans up until 1947. Now look at the advancement in the last 60 years (GI-NORMUS Gap there don't you believe ) I'm sure they're still attempting to figure out the power supply of that boat, and once that comes out...

  3. #13
    , I thought you might disagree with me at a certain point on the way. Please put forward as to why you disagree, your reasons.
    I'm not intelligent enough to know who'll be king of the hill later on and why. I'll watch and react just like trading the markets.

    As for reasons beyond performance is not a guarantee of future results . however, it is not sensible to bet against your favorite. However, I do know we've got the greatest political strategy, people and a number of the planet's very best sources with which to maintain our run for a fantastic long time. We'll most likely be the one, again I do not know for sure, to solve the energy mystery. Since the USA led in just about any contemporary endeavor during the prior century I think we will direct again the current one. Check back in 92 decades.

  4. #14
    Look in the improvement of technology throughout the history of humans up until 1947. Now look at the progress in the last 60 years (GI-NORMUS Gap there do not you believe ) I'm sure they're still trying to find out the power supply of the ship, and once that comes out....
    The future is in the stars.

  5. #15
    Clockwork - do not kid yourself. The Chinese are geared up and generating goods of world wide quality. I'm at the auto industry and they have very important, and growing content in our cars. They produce machined/stamped/assembled components as great as any.

    Also, I believe the Saudi's have enough cash to irrigate the desert and then grow their own food if they want. It takes them a while to implement, probably about precisely the same amount of time that it takes us to eventually become independent of their oil!

    Won't that be interesting!?!



    Oh yeah, Merlin -- I had an awesome profit on my China funds, awakened at or near the summit, and am in a painful reduction today - can't bond now... might be a fantastic time to buy, that I dunno.... I'm sure the boys are starting to return in at these prices, but hey, maybe the bubble burst and is remaining burst, who understands. Perhaps people went over there to the Olympics and saw that it's not so great after all.

  6. #16
    Senior Member raqwl.deji's Avatar
    108
    Oh yeah, Merlin -- I had an awesome profit on my China funds, doubled up at or near the peak, and am in a painful reduction now - can't bond now... could be a good time to buy, that I dunno.... I'm sure the boys are starting to return in at those prices, but maybe the bubble burst and is remaining burst, who knows. Maybe people went around for the Olympics and found that it is not so great after all.
    I also have been long china in my IRA but the position is too small to care for. We are off a reasonable bit from the peak (sorry to hear about your double down) but long term it should only be a blip on the radar. I will be buying dips for the upcoming few years

  7. #17
    Clockwork - do not kid yourself. The Chinese are geared up and generating products of quality. I am in the auto industry and they have very significant, and expanding content in our cars. They produce machined/stamped/assembled parts as good as any.

    Also, I think the Saudi's have sufficient cash to irrigate the desert and then develop their own food when they want. It takes them a while to execute, probably about the same quantity of time that it takes us to eventually become independent of the oil!

    Won't that be fascinating!?!



    Oh yeah, Merlin -- I had an awesome profit on my China funds, doubled up at or near the summit, and am at a painful reduction now - can not bail now... could be a fantastic time to buy, I dunno.... I am sure the big boys are starting to return in at those prices, but maybe the bubble burst and is remaining burst, who understands. Maybe people went around for the Olympics and saw that it's not so great after all.
    I Must disagree with you around China. I've lived here for 6 years now and they do not produce superior products. Their cars are crap and would never make it past the pollution and security standards set in the USA. Also American cars are considered much better quality and are favored by the Chinese within their own. In fact write ups in the paper about Chinese rich people buying only foreign made products is common here. They think about them much exceptional.

    Also for those of you thinking that China will pass the USA you dont understand how fragile this nations economy is. Every few years the authorities has to infuse billions of dollars into their banking system to keep them afloat.

    Most foreigners just do not understand or understand the issues of 1,300,000,000 individuals. If 1 billion Chinese people moved to the moon, they would still have more people than the USA. It is staggering what it takes to give food, water, sewers, etc. to a nation this size. Since the nation modernizes it throws people from work not produce more jobs. China has to have inefficiency from the system to employ everyone. Over 70% of the inhabitants are farmers. Modernize their plantation system and what exactly do you do with 800,000,000 unemployed men and women?

    Plus their government limits freedom of thought, which limits inventiveness and imagination. The best advantage the USA has is its freedom. We can change and alter direction because we're market based not govt. based. You cant believe all of the govt. Waste and boondoggles which go on here. I've seen whole towns constructed with thousands and thousands of empty buildings because a govt. Official decided it was wanted but there wasn't any market for this.

    Also the govt. Corruption here's unbelievable. The head of Shanghai two years ago was detained and put too death to get a 400 billion dollar scam. Can you imagine more than a 1/3 of a hundred dollars siphoned off of the economy. And that was a man who got captured. He just happened to be on the wrong side of the political spectrum at the time and that happened in just 1 city. I could go on but most of you do not see how incredibly far China has to visit ch up with us. Less than 25% of the people are middle class and their motor is overheating. Inflation for May was 8.3% and June 7.6 percent. You do not have any clue what that will perform in the long run.

    China has a 1 child policy and no state in history has ever had a population of an only child. Yet the schools and universities are just now getting these pupils. What kind of societal material will you have when child depends on the kids taking care of their parents but there is only 1 child who marries a 1 child and they have 4 parents to take care of. The numbers are astronomical. You have no idea of the issues China faces in the long run. American issues are simple in contrast to theirs. I've lived here six years and still do not understand 1.3 billion individuals.

    In the city I live in they are tearing the 4-8 story buildings so they can assemble 20 story buildings so individuals have a place to live in. They're stacking them up higher because there is nowhere else to put them. Where do you believe they are likely to get jobs for these people?? I thought I'd provide you a couple problems they confront. They are hard to understand much less figure out answers to. Only a couple ideas.

  8. #18
    Hallo Bob!

    Thanks for putting it in perspective! I attempted to state something likewise about the Japan ribbon, but here you've got the benefit to tell it to us right from the horses mouth!

    Ciao!
    Matt

  9. #19
    The greatest asset the USA has is its own freedom.
    And that even includes periods like lately when we have prez who'd like to limit some of those freedoms. His days are done. See what the drags in next.

  10. #20
    Junior Member jofremmh's Avatar
    24
    When passing became a choice...

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