1 trade per week system (Backtesting included)
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thread: 1 trade per week system (Backtesting included)

  1. #1
    Senior Member edukyplug's Avatar
    122

    1 trade per week system (Backtesting included)

    Hi Guys,
    I have been trading for nearly 10 years. Basically trading my EAs, and a few manual trading.
    I am going to discuss with you one of my own systems. It only takes 5 minutes each week.

    ONLY RULE BEFORE POSTING HERE:
    * ANY POSITIVE CRITICISM IS WELCOME. DO NOT POST IN THIS THREAD IF YOU ARE ONLY GOING TO PROVIDE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK WITHOUT A POSSIBLE SOLUTION. I HATE PEOPLE THAT DOESN'T APPRECIATE THE HARD WORK OF OTHERS. I DON'T HAVE TO GIVE MY SYSTEM, I DONT NEED, AND I AM NOT TRYING TO SELL ANYTHING. I AM OPENING THIS THREAD BECAUSE I WANT TO HELP OTHER TRADERS. SO BEFORE POSTING TAKE A MOMENT TO THINK. NOT FOLLOWING THIS RULE WILL GET YOU BANNED AUTOMATICALLY WITHOUT ANY NOTIFICATION

    * I SUGGEST NOT TO TRADE THIS SYSTEM ALONE. USE IT AS A PART OF SYSTEMS OF YOUR PORTFOLIO. SINCE IT ONLY TAKES 1 TRADE Each Week, IT WILL EXPERIMENT SOME BREAKEVEN PERIODS. IN THE LONG TERM IS MAKING MONEY.



    - Pair: Eur/usd
    - Chart: daily chart
    - Cease reduction: 1.3 daily ATR (14 period)
    - Risk each transaction: 2% up to 5 percent

    Entry rules:

    - Should friday daily candle was red, enter long in the open of next week (In my case Sunday 21:00gmt).
    - If friday daily candle has been green, input brief in the open of the week (In my case Sunday 21:00 gmt)

    Close the trade at the end of the day (In my case Monday 21:00 gmt) when the transaction is positive. If the trade is not favorable, then wait till the conclusion of Tuesday to shut.

    I am attaching backtest from Oct 2010- July 2017. I am using Pepperstone broker (daily candle opens and closes around 21:00 gmt). Backtest results may vary a bit between brokers, but not that far.

    Good Luck!

    UPDATE: EA specifiions:

    Risk: Risk per trade
    ATR period: Use daily period as stop loss
    ATRMult: X times the daily ATR as stoploss. So in the event that you choose 2, then the stop loss size will be 2 times de daily ATR.
    Position trade time: 00:05. Will place the trade in the open on Monday in 00:05. In my case this is 21:05 GMT.

    Code will not be shared. This can be a free EA, with expiration date that will be updated regulary every 3 months at no cost. I choose that in order to avoid from some individuals to sell it. It will always be free.

    Backtest Oct 2010- JUly 2017 (Using 5% risk per trade)



    https://www.cliqforex.com/attachment...8848610063.ex4

  2. #2
    Junior Member JpGmLdP's Avatar
    26
    1

  3. #3
    I'm minding backtest from 2014-2017.
    Would you have been willing and able to exchange it with equanimity during the 6-month interval that had a 35 percent drawdown?

    Do you love that a backtest from 2014 to 2017 of a system which trades just once a week is actually small and has very, very little statistical significance?

    Do you think that a more statistically significant backtest might show some 75% drawdowns, too?

    I am not belittling your observations in any way - simply offering some circumstance for them, and pointing out that identifying them with hindsight is really much easier than earning money from them.

    Really, to tell the truth, there is 1 part I am belittling: the 5 percent position-sizing. That's surreal.

  4. #4
    Junior Member Bertabn98's Avatar
    4
    I think that the 2% risk rule is more famous among traders here. But whatever works for you.

  5. #5
    Senior Member edukyplug's Avatar
    122
    quote

    Would you have been willing and ready to trade it with equanimity during the 6-month period that had a 35 percent drawdown?

    Certainly you aren't familiar with portfolio diversifiion.

    Do you love a backtest from 2014 to 2017 of a system which trades just once a week is actually small and has very, very little statistical significance?

    In spite of a sample large enough, thats not ensure it will work on the future. Actually, I dont give a lot importance to backtesting, I use it as a benchmark. Live trading is the only thing which matters.

    Do you believe a statistically significant backtest could show some 75 percent drawdowns, too?

    Why dont you create a little effort, do the backtest,and let us know?

    I'm not belittling your observations whatsoever - just offering some context for these, and pointing out that identifying them with hindsight is very far easier than making money from these. Actually, to be honest, there is one part I'm belittling: the 5 percent position-sizing. That is surreal

    Then cut the risk in half an hour. Irrelevant comment in this thread.

    .
    MY suggestion. Quit focusing on backtesting. Use it as a benchmark. Use a true account (with small money), grow a pair, and get started investing in a system until isn't longer working.

    . .Moving on...

  6. #6
    Senior Member edukyplug's Avatar
    122
    I feel the classic 2% risk rule is more famous among traders here in FF. But what works for you.
    I agree. Use the rule if you aren't comfortable with 5%. That would have given you a drawdown of just 12% in the previous 3.5 decades.

  7. #7
    Junior Member miki9424's Avatar
    24
    Hello Guys, I have been trading for almost 10 decades. Basically trading my EAs, and a few manual trading. I am going to share one of my own systems. It only takes 5 min each week: - Pair: Eur/usd - Chart: daily chart - Cease reduction: 45 pips - Risk per trade: 5 percent Entrance rules: - When friday daily candle has been reddish, enter long in the open of next week (In my instance Sunday 21:00gmt). - When friday daily candle has been green, input brief in the open of the week (In my instance Sunday 21:00 gmt) Close to the trade at the close of the day (In my case Monday 21:00 gmt)....
    Of fascination how do you get on these systems? You see them like patterns or is there many years of understanding behind reading the market, or just how can you do it??

  8. #8
    Senior Member edukyplug's Avatar
    122
    quote Of fascination how do you get on these systems? You see them like patterns or is there several years of knowledge behind reading the market, or just how can you get it done??
    Hi. You have that right. Years of experience and watching the market. You wont find this on any site, or youtube channel. After a while trading, you begin to develop a feeling of this market, and also to see some patterns. I'm not suggestin to trade based on atmosphere, but that feeling of this market will point you in the right way to produce a good system.

  9. #9
    Junior Member miki9424's Avatar
    24
    quote Hello. You got that right. Years of experience and viewing the market. You wont find that on any website, or youtube channel. After some time trading, you start to develop a feeling of this market, and to observe some patterns. I am not suggestin to trade based on atmosphere, but that feeling of this market will direct you in the right way to create a fantastic system.
    Hello,
    thanks to the feedback. I think I know exactly what you mean with atmosphere. I would compare it with a surfer waiting for the right wave to come, what like the end has to be just right for getting the best option to ch that wave at the right moment....
    With your own 5 min after NFP platform, my thinking is that you know as a result of NFP the market will be in over sold/under sold condition, and people are making new transactions to another month, and based on this you can pick the trend with greater accuracy than normal. . .But today for this 1 Week system I will have to re-think this!
    Thanks for sharing your systems with us!

  10. #10
    Junior Member meymh's Avatar
    23
    What's the TP in this system?

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