thread: Reflexivity in the USD

I shall attempt to show that freely floating exchange rates are inherently unstable: Moreover, the instability is cumulative so the eventual breakdown of a freely floating exchange rate process is virtually assured. George Soros

My first thoughts once I found myself a couple months ago re reading this opening paragraph for the 9th time due to his speculation in currencies I couldnt think how prophetic his words resonate not just then but even more so now. Then my second thought was get on board this wonderful trade we have and I want to jump on this chance of a lifetime.

A number of you know me when I began my very first thread overdue 2012 (Australian Bear Raid) in which I had been targeting the AUD using a collective concept this specific currency was about to fall under the weight of a commodity bubble, the carry trade it took advantage of, and of course the massive inflows of speculative capital seeking high returns from real estate to local stocks within an appreciating currency. I enjoy most of you did very well in this short and have taken my pound of flesh from the land down under. After I got out of the market to return to earth and revel in life more I waited to get a new opportunityThen I found myself a couple months ago really intrigued by KING DOLLAR and two key chapters from Soros book.

With that said, I enjoy most here (hopefully) began to think the dollar story and reluctantly got long at first then started to pile in once the trend kept getting stronger. But of course I needed to know why and this market can fly. This led me to reread probably the most essential chapters of this book which in my estimation is a current blueprint for how the dollar will exchange for another year or two;

The fundamental map I will discuss in the pages that follow are my opinions on what could be a spectacular increase and decrease similar to what we watched from 1981-1988 in the dollar.

I will attempt to frame this thread like the Australian bear thread with quality content, extensive excel data points, and the trade setups. As always I welcome both the bears and bulls of the dollar to discuss ideas and ideas with so we all can think about our strategy in this currency.

Before I design my bullish case on dollar within the next day or 2 I wanted to let those who haven't read his book examine the chapters I am talking about. The majority of both chapters are written below and I recommend at minimum the serious currency practitioner take to heart that the framework Soros lays out in the Reflexivity in the Currency Market chapter. It not only helps me once I decide to dive in the currency markets, it also provides me a framework in understanding the flow chart that is capital.

I anticipate another fascinating thread with many here that aren't out for the entire scalp but that are looking to ride macro trends,,,

You guys do not wish to be shorting USD against any major pair right now because it's basically completed that 93 level which is MAJOR SUPPORT and is discovering basing in the 78.6percent fib which is at 94.15 I talked about yesterday which would be encourage. Right now dollar is close to trading back into yesterdays US session HI/LOW range aof 95.59/ / 94.31 and when US session closes over the low do not be shocked when we've got a little jolt higher.

Either way I am looking for swing longs in EUR stocks for 20. . .30 points if this 786 holds on dollar.

Wow I want to slow down. Because dollar holding 786 and trading greater I meant to say I will swing shorts. Unbelievable how quickly I've been typing without paying attention.

To reiterate. Dollar is near bottoms and should discover support that is minor.
EUR profit taking must arrive in, sending us reduced on EUR futures.

hort 2c on EUR.

When we really look at the amount of movement EUR has had this past week, dollar using its purge instant earlier now to finish the 93 primary service, along with the fact it's now finding support in the 786% fib I feel comfortable to short EUR here entering Friday's near

there'll be profit taking coming on EURO understanding full well that having continued unresolved issues in Greece no real professionals hold serious size going into weekends unhedged.

IN in 1.1379
goals are 1.1314-1.1296
SL in 1.1420

that is what I PUT IN eur/usd thread. Sorry all I'm a BEAR on eur.

EURfut simply broke below Wed US session high at 1.1372 next spot to test will be Todays US session low at 1.1352 Shorts are going to do well on Friday in case you can just hold on and ECB does not come out with surprise news.

My projection is EURfut will exchange to 1.1314-1.1296 possibly by friday close

Currently at Todays US session high in 1.1352. If you haven't been short yet, simply wait to this amount breaks which is 1.1340 on place before consideration as you will encounter service here which is not good to get chopped up.

And there it goes 1.1339 should be following on eur fut for service
SPOT 1.1299-1.1281
IF YOU're short adjust TP's with the market in case BS news hits.

EURfut hourly needs to close below 1.1352 to get a continued move to amounts mentioned above

hort 2c on EUR. If we really consider the quantity of motion EUR has had this week, dollar using its purge moment earlier today to complete the 93 main support, and also the fact it's now finding support in the 786% fib I feel comfortable to brief EUR here going into Friday's close There will be profit taking coming in on EURO knowing full well that having continued unresolved problems in Greece no real professionals hold serious size moving into weekends unhedged. IN in 1.1379 goals are 1.1314-1.1296 SL in 1.1420 that is precisely what I PUT IN eur/usd ribbon....

TP in .70 not enjoying the build-up on now; US low price. Should I get stopped out I will catch something

Oh baby tp with market atm

Out at .29 will place Pnl entry exit in another here. Reason being is that the futures for currencies is going on Sunday and I will explain the many advantages of margin . spot and the tick(pip) value over sopt