Prediction of random charts w/poll
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Thread: Prediction of random charts w/poll

  1. #1

    Prediction of random charts w/poll

    I have tested charts with chandlesticks. I have also tested a lot of regular charts. What works in works that are ordinary for arbitrary.
    So my judgment would be that they act precisely the same way and that they are the same and that the markets are only as predictable as the atmospheric noise.

    A forecast will sound like this. If price reaches 100 then it will go without reaching 50 using a 70-75% winrate.
    Can it be a good prediction?
    Exactly what winrate and how many predictions have you got to do in order to prove for instance that translated into chandlesticks can be predicted using technical analysis?

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote that guy does not have a winning aproach. He attempts to learn from someone. That somebody attempts to explain the support and resistance with some economic thoughts. That mentor is also a gut instinct trader. Lt;hey mentor did you set the support level not and here in other 20 loions? This is really where my gut tells me to place this support. Are you planning to place more questions or are you going to feel exactly what I am feeling? Mentor I'm trying my best. Here is 100 dollars for this month. Possibly in another 10 months will...
    I think he was more trying to disprove the guru/mentor.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote I never stated it was useless. I stated that I've a measurement of how useful it is! Since I know how to carry out the simulations and also measure the assurance. I know that TA works in arbitrary charts and charts. Do you? Can you measure this? You are stating that my programming is useless? Have you got any quantitative evidence concerning this? quote I've been trading them for 15 years Mr. They haven't failed Additionally, even when you wished to invest in themyou wouldn't be able...
    sir to simplify this. I have zero interest about everything you do to know.
    Ta is a very extensive subject and very few thoughts are successful. If what you know about ta doesn't function for arbitrary from my standpoint is useless.
    Now I asked you concerning the number of trades for the machine to have an edge.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    currently I asked you about the amount of transactions for the system to have an edge.
    You can't ever be absolutely certain you've got an advantage, you can only say that you may have an advantage within a specified statistical confidence. This not only is based on the amount of transactions but you are trading. If you want to say that you have an advantage with a confidence gt; 99 percent you are able to conduct a variety of statistical tests to find this out (both numerical and analytic). For example you are able to conduct Monte Carlo simulations of a system which fits with your systems R:R but has a random expectancy, you may then figure out the percentage of outcomes which are equal or above to your profitability, which may give you the confidence with which you'll be able to say that you have an advantage. Your confidence in having an advantage could be 100-(Y/X)*100 where Y is the number of Monte Carlo iterations equal or above to your system's profits and X would be the entire amount of iterations.

  5. #5
    You are able to conduct this Monte Carlo simulations in R if you wish, it's simple also. Here's an intro to Monte Carlo in R:

  6. #6
    I want a simple answer.
    In 1:1 and 70% how many transactions?

    I am using monte carlo simulations for determining max drawdown and consistency in equity chart. I discovered that constant equity charts are created with a profit factor of over 1.8.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    at 1:1 and 70% how many trades?
    I will not do your homework Together with the above information you may calculate yourself.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote I won't do your homework Together with the above information you can compute this yourself.
    haha. Desire me to find out r and statistics only for this response?
    Anyway I think I have a response for this. practical one.

  9. #9
    You can calculate the likelyhood of your given N trades' likelihood because you inflict the R = 1:1. N is as big as you will need the confidence interval to be tight.

  10. #10
    I forgot to add that the border may come in the Rinstead of the win/loss.

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