This diary is to record my analysis, egy and logic for inputting trades.
I adopt a Global-Macro method of trading. In a nutshell, I search for opportunities such as mispricings and insecure trades with risk benefits.


WARNINGEverything I post are my OPINIONS. Not exchange recommendations!
Posts about trades are DELAYED.
I strongly discourage attempts to copy my trades.
Finally, I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR LOSSES!
(Although you can always thank me to your own wins )



Edit:

26/04/2018
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My trading style has evolved once again. Not extreme, however there are modifiions to my Trade Decision Process. This is my trading methodology.

Trade Decision Process
1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity
Draw hyperlinks from news, use your logic to create a narrative.

2. Produce Trade Plan
Really realize what you are trading. What are the elements affecting it? Does evidence support/disprove your narrative? What are the risks to the commerce? Where do you expect to acquire in/out? What are the current market sentiment? The essential thing is to truly be comprehend and know the product you are trading. I can't stress this enough!

3. Document all possible risks
Political, economical, natural etc.. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk. Conviction have you got in this trade idea? What/where would be your margin-of-safety?
If unattractive, don't trade.

4. Time that the Entry
The only time I use technicals. Do not overcomplie things here. A very simple break of MA or support/resistence crossover is all I want to signal an entry.

5. Track and Manage the Trade
Is price movement justifying my prediction? Any fundamental shift if fad? Can I do I escape or live in the commerce?

I have to state again the importance of understanding what you are trading. You would not buy a car without doing your homework. Without performing your research, neither if you enter a trade. Research is key!


3/03/2018
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Some more nuggets which I feel is useful for all traders to know:

- Trading isn't a consistent activity - Do not expect to be gaining X percent every day, week, month or year.
- NOBODY can predict the near - comprehend that every transaction is essentially a gamble. Your analysis can suggest the probability of success. However, you can be incorrect!
- Be critical of everything - Regrettably in this industry, there is alot of conflict of interest. And people will do anything. Be critical of everything you see, learn, read or hear. Because it's a likelihood that someone out there will try to flow false information to sucker traders of the cash.

These are only some nuggets that I feel help me survive and improve my trading up to now. And I feel it's going to benefit the standard retail trader .


23/01/2018
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Following months of trading, I've updated my trading philosophy and decision making processes based on my own experiences. This is my trading philosophy that is updated .

- Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail - Never enter a transaction without due diligence.
- If you are incorrect, get out of the transaction ASAP. Don't hope for a recovery.
- Ride your winners but know when to take profits.
- Always know your downside risks, always be ready for the worst case situation.
- DO NOT OVERLEVERAGE, ensure you have the ability to handle the drawdowns!
- Risk management and capital preservation is number 1 priority. Substainable profits is next by a long stretch.
- Learn to stay on the sidelines if there are no opportunities. Keep this Dry Powder for golden opportunities

There are not much modifiions to my Trade Decision Process, although I tend to rely considerably lesser on technical analysis now.
The main lessons learnt over these months is all about risk and expect. I can not stress enough the importance of taking a loss when you are wrong, instead of hoping for a rebound in prices.

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30/12/2017
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Throughout my diary, there should be a noticable shift in the way I present my commerce ideas. Including the sorts of thought, sources of my information, kind of analysis, along with the demonion of my commerce ideas.
A common theme is my commerce ideas are all anticipated to take place during a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.

__________________

Initial article:

Note to Self:

Trade Decision Process
1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity - Draw hyperlinks in news, Logic
2. Produce Trade Plan - Expected reactions, Expected TP and SL, Momentum, Swaps
3. Document all possible risks - political, economical, natural etc.. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk
4. Time the Entrance - Technicals
5. Manage and Track the Trade - Is price movement justifying my prediction? Any fundamental shift if fad? Stay in the commerce or get out?

Update:
I'd love to add another step after drawing a commerce program. That would be come up with all of the ways the plan might fail and to critic the egy. A counter-plan I will probably call it. Afterward I shall compare my original plan with the counter-plan to see whether the transaction is worth implementing. This review process will keep me from poorly planned trades.
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News Analysis Considerations
- Immediate, Short (lt;5 times), Medium (5 times ~ 3 Month) and Long Term (gt;3 Months) Impact of News
- Divergence/Opportunity between time effect of news
- Context of News/Statistics
- Expectations before the news

Nuggets to self
- Market often overreact to news. Particularly when its bad
- Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
- Buy the rumours, sell the truth
- Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail
- It is much better to miss a winning commerce than to ch a shedding one
- Do not place all your eggs in 1 basket - Diversify!
- 80% Fundamental, 20 percent Technical
- Bulls go up the stairs, bears jump out the window
- Do not be worried about the short-term changes, concentrate on the primary fashion - Sit Tight!
- Just risk what you are eager to eliminate
- Cut your losers whenever you are proven wrong, not if the losses begin to hurt
- you need to be ready to eliminate your entire profits in order to ch a huge move
- You win some, you eliminate some. 1 commerce dont determine achievement.
- Take a break from trading following a loss - Trust me, it will help!
- Revenge commerce is suicide - DONT DO IT
- Losing trades are course, not failues
- NEVER ever put a trade when you are not thinking right
- Hope kills - Do not expect! Have contingencies!
- To protect ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself - Prevent the loss of your funds and wait for the market to supply you with a trading opportunity

____________________

Edit:
--

Throughout my diary, there should be a noticable shift in the way I present my commerce ideas. Including the sorts of thought, sources of my information, kind of analysis, along with the demonion of my commerce ideas.
A common theme is my commerce ideas are all anticipated to take place during a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.