thread: Training Journal

quote Well, it could. But my guess is that either BoE wont be fearless in their rate hike, or that the fed will be further forward.

A Fantastic read for you : Top Pound Forecasters Are Bullish as Brexit Worries 'Overplayed'

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ies-overplayed

quote Two rate hikes could do it and that is what some are putting bets on.

Well, it could. However, my guess is that either BoE wont be fearless in their rate hike, or that the fed will be.

quote I dont think so... IMO we may need lots of things to go well for UK for that to happen

Two rate hikes can do it and that is what some are putting bets on.

quote Nicely with a potential interest increase then I guess it's always going to profit. Only issue that is confusing is what level could it attain. 1.50 by year close?

I really dont think so... IMO we may need lots of items to go well for UK for that to happen

quote Woots! It seems that GBPUSD was inside the forecast of my model! I only ran the calculations for the month of April, results reveal that the anticipated close of GBPUSD for april ought to be approximately 1.382, using an upper error bound of around 1.417. I have to reiterate again that my version provides an overall direction. And is not meant to be tradable. Of course the predictions these models are just numbers based on past outcomes. Whats important is the fundamentals of the asset you exchange.

So you believe it will reach a max of 1.417 and then close for the month in 1.382?

25/03/2018 --'m unsure exactly what got the better of me, but I spent the whole day creating a forecast model for the GBPUSD. My inspiration for this particular version came from a number of the posts on this forum!

Woots! It seems that GBPUSD was within the forecast of my model!
I just ran the calculations for the month of April, results reveal the anticipated close of GBPUSD for april should be about 1.382, using an upper error bound of about 1.417. I must reiterate again my version provides an overall direction. And isn't meant to be tradable.
Of course the forecasts my these versions are simply numbers based on past outcomes. Whats important is the underlying fundamentals of the asset you trade.

Alright so my performance stats for month of March 2018! My performance is -0.13%. Losses stems from my long USD positions, which has recovered from drawdowns that are much deeper at the beginning of march. My portfolio was encouraged by my bond holdings, which has appreciated a few. Enough to cancel a lot of my drawdowns from my long USD position. Although in absolute terms I didn't make any gains, I did outperform the SP500 that posted a loss of about 2.66 percent for March. On a year to date/quarterly horizon, I'm down 3.46 percent, more...

You need to be very careful when you're buying the dollar as I don't expect traders will reveal it considerably love this season. The Fomc appear to have laid their cards on the desk and it is not sufficient to get traders to buy dollar as 3 hikes this year is not enough.



Eur and gbp will put immense pressure on the dollar in addition to the cad advertisement their cpi is over target and once nafta is out exactly the way boc will increase.

Okay my performance stats for month of March 2018!
My functionality is -0.13%. Losses stems mostly from my long USD positions, which has recovered at the start of march from drawdowns that are much deeper. My bond holdings, and this has appreciated quite a few have supported my overall portfolio. Enough to cancel a lot of my drawdowns from my USD place that is long. Although in absolute terms I did not make any gains, I did outperform the SP500 which published a loss of about 2.66% for March.

On annually to date/quarterly horizon, I am down 3.46%, more than two times as bad as SP500's yields of about -1.7%. Reason is trading a position that is large and mainly due to my USD position. Still have lots of ching up to do!

On assessing my performance this month, there isn't much to comment as I didn't place any new trades. I had identified a chance (USDHKD) however my order wasn't triggered. I have to commend myself for not placing fun trades, or trades from boredom. This iron discipline to abstain from tinkering and obsessive trades with my rankings is deemed critical to success in my view. I am still constantly drilling in my mind to wait for the golden opportunities to present themselves and not trade anything less.

My current outlook for the future remains unchanged. I anticipate volatility in the markets. Especially in stocks, I am beginning to suspect that this could be the consolidation phase prior to the markets turn for the worse. Although I dare not call the top, I really do feel that any further upside is limited. In currencies, I still view USD as fundamentally strong and oversold, and poised to make a comeback from within a year of decrease. I keep my conviction that GBP was overpriced, and that markets are too confident about the risks connected with brexit.

I have started to notice Yen power and will be keeping a close eye. I guess that the Yen power is driven by a combination of political things volatility, and momentum. IMO, JPY could be supported by these variables further in the short term. Before deciding whether to take the trade I have to do my homework.

31/03/2018
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Just a heads up. USDHKD crossed 7.85 and was instantly suppressed straight back down.
Regrettably my order wasn't triggered. Danm dealer platforms!
Waiting patiently from the sides to get an entrance next week or so!


In the meantime, I will be taking the weekends to perform up my accounts. If im not wrong I outperformed the index this month. Since it was just another month for SP. However, I gotta check.

27/03/2018
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I had an interesting discussion yesterday with a member of this forum. He brought the notion of trend following up.

I had previously known of this vastly researched anomaly in the markets - Momentum. However, it didn't grab my attention. Mainly due to my rationale the market is saturated.

This man changed my perspective towards trend after.

After some interesting discussion, followed with him showing me some work of his, I have come to be convinced that there's some virtue in trend following egies in bringing excessive returns. I decided to dig deeper into the concept.

My digging led me to functions done by academics on the momentum effect in a variety of asset classes: Stocks, Commodities, Currencies, Fixed-Income.
While there's does seem like a momentum effect in all asset classes, their size varies. Nevertheless there hasn't been any decision deciding which strength tend to see stronger momentum.
The good news is there seems to be some evidence that momentum egies have the ability to deliver annualized returns above passive index investing. The bad news is that these yields may be eroded fees from the turnover.
There also seems to be evidence that trend following egies seem to outperform the markets during market crashes and suffer in the subsequent rebounds.

Overall, it's interesting to see an age old form of investing not stop to exist. Regardless of the ability of traders to arbitrage opportunities away.
I will try to determine how I could incorporate momentum right into my trading choice. As I trade off contrarian views, the trend will typically be against me.

Maybe I could Begin embracing the term Trade with the trend.